If I get 8 IPC as Germany, the TRN will be in SZ14, or perhaps a SUB in SZ8…
If I get 8 IPC as Germany, the TRN will be in SZ14, or perhaps a SUB in SZ8…
I remember trying that lol. It was really funny to see Germany sailing into the heart of Africa along the west coast, and also Germany sinking the UK bb/tran + Russian sub in the other case lmao. It wasn’t terribly advantageous in the long run though in my experience, but I didn’t try it often enough to feel conclusive about it.
@ncscswitch:
If I get 8 IPC as Germany, the TRN will be in SZ14, or perhaps a SUB in SZ8…
I will not take axis for less than 8 ipc, the tripleA ladder rules says 9.
With 9 ipc it’s about 50-50 win/loss.
I guess most ppl play with axis bid down, I estimate axis bid below 6 means axis must be better player(s),
if then axis players manage to win games with any bid substantially below the 8-9 range.
Thanks Lucifer. I must be a pretty good player then… I win 2 out of 3 games, and almost every game has been a bid of 8 or less (one as low as 4) :-D
@ncscswitch:
If I get 8 IPC as Germany, the TRN will be in SZ14, or perhaps a SUB in SZ8…
I used to think that too, until someone put the tpt in sz5 on me and I hated what it made me do for Russia round 1.
With 2 sz5 tpts, UK can be lost on G1. I am not too happy giving Germany a 42% chance of taking out London.
Russia must take out Norway to kill a ftr and/or put 1 ftr in London.
There are other, BETTER, ways to prevent a G2 Sea Lion than either Norway or a Russian FIG to London; even against a MASSIVE number of German TRNs in SZ5.
Someone tried the sealion against me a few weeks ago, with 5 trans G1.
It’s not difficult to counter if you have calculated this scenario before.
Sealion didn’t happen this time, I lost because of other reasons, but this made me think
about possibillities that I didn’t know existed before that game.
I made several errors which helped me lose the game because I had not thought about what do if……?
I guess now I would be happy (as allies) if G bought 5 trans, 5 trans G1 will help Russia more than Germany.
5 TRN G1 are 10 INF and 2 TANK less for Germany
Sealion with 5 TRN is 10 Less infantry for Germany.
20 if LESS and 2 TANK Less on G2 is German ready to be assailed by Russia (alone!)
Then 5 TRN in G1 means Germany being assailed by Russia…. mmmm I dislike 5 TRN in G1! :-D
I had someone bid 8 IPC for a submarine in SZ 8 on me before. I solved that problem by taking Norway with Russia on R1. End of threat to the British fleet. Havn’t worked out the odds on if I was really lucky or not, but it’s possible to solve their bid and neutralize their effectiveness.
Anyway, the transport in SZ 14 is a favorite of mine. 3 Infantry in Ukraine as well, since it all but forces Russia to leave you with fighters. (Momma loves fighters! And rockets, but fighters too!)
To be realistic, however, I think Germany should be happy if they get two units for Libya/Ukraine which is to say, about a 6 or 7 IPC bid. At least against opponents on this board.
If you are playing people at AAMC, you can realistically expect to win bids (FIDA) of 18-22 IPC on a pretty regular basis.
@ncscswitch:
There are other, BETTER, ways to prevent a G2 Sea Lion than either Norway or a Russian FIG to London; even against a MASSIVE number of German TRNs in SZ5.
who said G2?
I said Germanys FIRST turn
I dislike setting up my board to have the game determined by a dice roll on G1 that has a 38% chance of clearing London
@ncscswitch:
I dislike setting up my board to have the game determined by a dice roll on G1 that has a 38% chance of clearing London
OK
What are you talking about?
Please put into context.
@ncscswitch:
I dislike setting up my board to have the game determined by a dice roll on G1 that has a 38% chance of clearing London
It’s 16% for sealion victory with lowluck.
32% with reg dice.
If the AA gun doesn’t get any hits, it’s 32% with lowluck, and 45%-46% with reg dice…. :mrgreen:
How bout some short games??? :-D :lol: 8-)
And if you lose the gamble, you end up with Germany pretty much toast.
Not to mention America’s gunna liberate England and Geramny’s still pretty much toast.
If Germany fails in sealion, then Germany is dead. Usually, and granted that G got all ftrs killed in the attempt.
But if Germany takes london and 30 ipc from UK, then there’s no hope for allies.
We might start a discussion on weather allies can recover, even when US can recapture London.
I don’t think 1 out 10 times is an interesting debate. Maybe the number is 1 out of 50 times, that allies can win if sealion succeds.
1. G gets 30 ipc, + 8 for London.
2. UK cant buy for one turn. UK lose 2 rnds because if this.
3. Nearly all UK ground units in Northern Europe are killed.
4. US lose 1 rnd in Europe to take back London.
5. Depending on how big fleet G has, either with sealion G1 or G2, US+UK needs to stack London
to prevent two sealion’s in the same game….
6. Fill in plz.
I really don’t se the problem if G place an 8 bid trans in Baltic.
If G attempts sealion, then you win about 70% of the those games.
That is if sealion G1. G2, that’s another story.
If G attempts sealion, then you win about 70% of the those games.
That is if sealion G1. G2, that’s another story.
My dice sim says 42% chance of taking UK.
And I don’t think Germany is TOAST if they fail on a sea lion G1
What have they lost if they fail?
Germany trades 2 inf, 2 tanks for 2 inf, art, tank
They traded 2 ftrs and a bomber for 2 ftrs and a bomber
If things go really bad, they can always w/d and save a plane or two or three….
You people are pretty cavalier about losing your capital.
Capital loss is punished pretty hard in A&A (some say too hard)
We should discuss (perhaps another thread) G1 Sea lion …
what happens if it fails
what happens if it succeeds.
As Germany, depending on how well/poorly Russia did attacking Germany, I would/would not attack London.
Let’s ask THESE QUESTIONs then
What are the axis odds of winning with $8 bid?
Greater than 42%?
~OR~
Germany has a 42% chance of taking out Moscow…. do you go for it?
In my previous post I stated that sealion for G is about 33%. With 1 trans in Baltic.
If G rolls bad dice first phase and retreat planes, then this might not be a turning point in the game.
But if it fails totally and G loses all 3 planes then this is a big setback for G, because of Russia and Africa + +.
A failed sealion G1 is not nessecarely lost game for axis, but a big setback.
Failed sealion G2 then it’s game over. But that’s another discussion.
This is sealion scenario G1 for Germany, with TripleA battlecalc which is not always 100% correct.
With reg dice it is 32%-34%, also with “one attacking land must live”.
First phase is AA fire. 2 ftrs 1 bmr means 50% one plane shot down.
If no planes are hit, then it’s 44%-46%, also with “one attacking land must live”.
If AA hits one ftr, then it’s about 18%, also with “one attacking land must live”.
Remember that if bc says 1%, this is not always true in reality, if 5-10-500 defending units
should be remaining. But with reg dice nothing is 100% impossible.
