The Caspian sub paper you refer to is a pretty good read.
But I feel it does not address the “instant loss” factor.
By this, I refer to a strategy that can LOSE you the game right away, depending on your opponent’s move, or dice rolls.
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True, the UK player may not even attack, and will PROBABLY hedge bets by sending the UK bomber to Anglo-Egypt.
However, if the UK player DOES attack, AND the UK player gets LUCKY, then it is immediately crippling to Germany.
Of course, if the UK player attacks and has only regular luck, it’s a solid German move. But I think that, even though 2-3 Baltic transports is a feasible move for Germany that is important to consider, I think that it is not necessarily “sound”, in the sense that pawn to king four is sound. I get more of the feeling that it’s like an opening of pawn to queen bishop four - not wrong, but not a conservative line of play either.