You obviously have to take into account what your opponent does, but I think Zosima’s point is valid, simply sitting back and saying I’ll wait to see what “X country” is going to do, is generally a very bad idea.
You do not want your opponent to dictate the the pace, the battles, or even the strat you must employ.
Germany can largely ignore Russia 1 and do what ever she wants. You can still go Med/Afr, go Baltic, or go all land.
Whether Russia attacked Belo or Ukr, is largely insignificant in what Germany should do, the only difference would be to counter Bel or Ukr, but trading for the sake of trading isn’t a strat. If you don’t have a plan as the Axis, you are going to lose every game, since time is on the Allies side.
An effective strat, will get your opponents trying to counter your moves, not the other way around.
For example, if you go with a G1 heavy Navy build in the Baltic YOU put a series of events into motion that require the Allies to do certain moves, this gives you an advantage (assuming you are experienced in these moves).
One of my typical goals is to hold Ukr with Ger as early as possible, I really don’t care where the Allies land or what they are doing, I want Ukr. Once I have that I can deadzone almost all of Europe, now the question becomes how am I doing with Japan.
If I start to worry, that the Allies are landing in Nor or Kar and divert troops north, I lose the initiative.
The reason being, if I go for Ukr and hold, the Allies can’t afford to just build up in Kar, they must react to my moves.
You want to set up effective counters, but you better be advancing your position and goals as well.
The best defense is a good offense.