What percentage is luck involved in a games outcome?

the thing i like about tripleA is that i have a history in a saved game file.  after entering all the moves (and editing), i can go back R1, step through each move and purchase and study the position.  once i see the clever moves in round 4-5, i can go back and see how they were setup.

i pretty much have to do it this way since many of the allies moves aren’t obvious at first glance.  it takes a few turns of the allies coordinating together (for me) to see why things were done several turns ago and why certain things were not done.

can abattlemap do that for me?  or will i just have to use my memory?

@ncscswitch:

To get THAT much Japan hardware in range of the US for J2 would mandate that Japan was effectively going KUSA, with commensurate loss of income in Asia.

Not really.

7 Infantry, 2 Fighters attack China with the two fighters coming from Manchuria and FIC.  These fighters can land in Japan.
3 Fighters, Battleship, Carrier, Destroyer, Submarine, Bomber attack SZ 52
Fighter, Infantry, Armor attack Hawaii

2 Fighters from the SZ 52 battle can land in SZ 45 on the carrier and battleship from SZ 37

now, without building a darn thing you already have:

2 Battleships
2 Carriers
6 Fighters
1 Transport
1 Destroyer
1 Submarine* (If it was not lost)

vs

1 Battleship
1 Transport
1 Destroyer
3 Fighters (Assumes the fighter was lost in Hawaii)
2 Aircraft Carriers

I did not give up anything in Asia, but I did station everything in range of America.  The transport in SZ 52 can easily pick up units in Solomons to attack Australia with two bombardments if I don’t need them.

Or, don’t attack Hawaii and add 1 fighter to the defensive forces, but don’t risk losing your infantry and armor in the process.

Odds:

Attacker: 2 Battleships, 2 Carriers, Transport, Submarine, Destroyer, 6 Fighters (2 Fighters in SZ 52 can attack and land back on Wake), Bomber (assumed stationed at Wake where it can again land)

Defender: Battleship, 2 Carriers, Transport, Destroyer, 4 Fighters

(note, this does not take into account any builds for Japan that may or may not be in range of SZ 55.)

I have the Japanese winning over 99% of the time with losses of transport, submarine, 2 fighters.  I believe that is a rather good trading position for Japan.

@Bean:

Miscommunication, I was talking about your game with Rising Dragon, not your game with me. That game waiting for lucky dice didn’t help, that was what I’m talking about.

I have to say you’re putting up a good fight in our game, except it doesn’t look like much of a KJF.  :roll:

Yea, I had to wait until round 4, remember?

Now you have a sizable, but weak British fleet in the Pacific and a large American fleet in the Pacific.  Looks a lot more like KJF now, eh?  And it’s round 4, as predicted.

Anyway, I almost got screwed in SZ 15 by the dice gods.  But luckily, my fighter found a bullet to put the bismark at the bottom of the sea. whew.

As for Rising Dragon, yea, I fully expected the game to be over a few rounds ago!  But he waited, decided to go blitz up Africa instead of hitting Russia, giving me time to entrench and he got nailed with defensive fire.  He’ll get it this round though.  Nothing I can do, even with good dice, to stop that!

@newpaintbrush:

To get your revenge, you will need:

2 cases of beer
1 can whipped cream
4 bikinis
1 macaque monkey
1 camera (with film and batteries)

Use your imagination.

Yummay

sure, I’d play ya IRL.  But I’m in NYC and you’re around Chicago, I think, yes?

OH wellz, what can ya do?

@Jennifer:

@Infantry:

Now that you can target tech rolls IT would distort the game. Too much would rely on whether Germany or Russia got IT first.

Well, if they had left it in and not altered Hvy Bombers except to limit then to best of 3 dice on SBR runs, it would have evened out.

I think the reference was to the tech that allowed you to save 1 IPC per unit.

Spend 20 IPC on tech, get a slightly better than 50% chance.

Now you need to buy 20 units to make that back.  20 infantry now cost you 40 IPC.

Simple.

Maybe you could make a thread about your strategy.  Unless your waiting to unleash it against one of the people here?

My opponent did do quite some havoc and his AF never dropped below 10 once he reached this at UK4…
But, like Jetfan4hire already posted: Probably that won’t work against an axis player who knows what he is doing…

G was crippled heavily short after with only 3 territories remaining - value 22 IPC’s
I know, I messed up really bad that game :-)
So, G didn’t have the force to strike back at the figs…
And that’s the reason why things worked out for my opponent…