@Sankt:
Let me drop a bone to you guys… this just happened in a 5-player game I’m playing here on the forums.
It’s US3 and Japan has just dropped off units to w.can leaving 3 trns in sz63. My bomber is stationed in novo and I decide to be a daredevil and give it a go. All 3 trns sunk and bomber lives. Landing on midway with 1 inf for protection. Japan also has 1 trn in sz60 and 2 inf on Japan, no air in range. Now…
Was I “skilled” or “lucky”? To have my bomber survive has only a 22% chance. What about the landing spot? He can bring 2 inf vs my 1 inf, 1 bomber and I’m probably going to lose the inf before the bomber. Am I skilled or taking too huge a risk? Consider that that trn by attacking midway gains no IPCs, abstains from sending forces to the mainland for one round and if the inf fails to capture or kill the bomber it is a sitting duck for a new bombing mission. (No capital ships in range) Even by staying in sz60 a new capital ship will have to be built to protect it as no other ships are in range.
No, you managed your risks. Perhaps you felt that taking out the transports was:
1). Too big of a reward to NOT take the 22% risk
2). The only way to get back into the game (if you were behind)
3). You probably felt that the bomber would not live so you didn’t worry about defending him in Midway.
22% is a high outcome percentage… you WILL see these results. Now if you posted something like a 2-4% outcome, then I might call that a bit lucky.
I would say your opponent took a calculated risk as well that didn’t pay off for him. If he could afford the transports, then perhaps he was ok with that risk. If losing 3 transports may now cost him the game, then he took a bad gamble (unless he is losing). he then mis-mangaged his risks.