A neat formula for odds

@newpaintbrush:

@Weekend:

Actually, what you are talking about was proved YEARS ago

Where are the formulas?

I remember reading Don’s stuff too.

I do not remember formulas.

Okay, newpaintbrush, I am no mathematician, so I don’t mean “proof” in the strict mathematical sense you math geeks mean.  That said, this is not a new idea.  I am not criticizing akreider2 or anything – good for him (and everyone else) for figuring it out.  I am just pointing out this is not a new discovery or anything.

DarthMaximus – interesting comments.  I’ve only played a few games of Revised, but I agree that West Russia is possibly THE most critical territory in the European theater (aside from capitals, of course  :-D) and possibly on the entire map.  I would say the Caucuses is a close second, only because it probably gets taken much easier than West Russia because, once Russia is in serious trouble, the Caucuses must be abandoned if Moscow is to be held.  All in all, a MUCH better map with far more tactical possibilities than in Classic.  It definitely changes your strategies from Classic, especially for the Allies.

@akreider2:

… It seems to be approaching 50% from below (for the attacker, eg the attacker odds start at 48% and increase to 50% as the number of units increases) which is weird.

It’s not really that weird.  I do not know the exact mathematical expression for it, but as you increase the numbers of each unit the odds will approach 50%.  You will never get exactly there, but you get closer and closer with more units.  Each unit either hits or it misses (two outcomes - there’s your 50%), and the more units you add to each side allow for more combinations that allow the hits and misses to equalize.  The hit percentage for the different units and the ratio between Attackers and Defenders becomes marginalized as the units on each side scale up to infinity.  It happens in your example more noticeably since you chose a battle that was fairly even to start with.  Theoretically, this is true for every battle…however you have to use extremely large numbers to begin to see it.

dont worry they post in jest.

It makes sense that unit count would be squared in Aaron’s formula, because the # of units you have helps in 2 ways - it increases both the damage you can deliver and the damage you can sustain.

Just in case you’re interested, a similar phenomenon has been observed in real-life military strategy.  It’s called the Lanchester Square Law.  Basically, the power of an army is proportional to the square of its size.  Check out http://tinyurl.com/37npjl
Of course, it works in real life for different reasons than it works in Axis & Allies!

SO in following Lanchester Square Law if I had 12 INF and they had 5 INF, 2 ARM and 1 FTR I take 12X12 and thats my square (144) How do I figure they other sides? Do I throw them all into one pile then sq. them? Do I sq. them by unit them add them? I mess around with it. More to follow……

-LT04

I’m not sure how to get it to work. Even if I did I think I’d stick with my formula:

Attacker:

Need 6 INF for 1 hit
Need 3 ART for 1 hit
Need 2 ARM for 1 hit
AA GUN N/A
Need 2 FTR for 1 hit
Need 3 Bomber for 2 hits
Need 3 Battleship for 2 hits
Need 6 CV for 1 hit
TRN N/A
Need 3 SUB for 1 hit
Need 2 DST for 1 hit

I’m sure you all see how I came up with this (In case you didn’t INF = 1 in 6 chance of a hit so 6 INF are needed for 1 hit.) I know its not by any means 100% so I figure how many hits I should average then subtract how many units will be left then check the surrounding area (like Don recommends) for any dead zones then I choose to attack or not.

I’m sure there are better ways this one doesn’t require to much thinking so I like it so I can focus on more important matters in the game.

-LT04

Bumped.
Please, Wittmann or Panther, move this thread into Player help.
Thanks.