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Game Question On UK1 Attack Possibility

Axis & Allies North Africa
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  • H

    @Karl7

    I don’t understand how this plays out, is there a replay somewhere?

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  • Karl7K
    22 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 12

    @Hansolo88

    No replay.

    But basically in Rommel’s Last Push scenario, if the Germans take Mersa Brega G1, the UK can counter attack very strongly and more likely than not wipe the German army out, making even threatening Cairo a near impossibility.

    If the Germans/Axis wait to build up 1 or 2 turns, then the possibility of even credibly threatening Cairo likewise diminishes significantly.

    Thus, the only reliable strategy for the Axis is to hold back and go for limited victory.

    That’s how I see it.

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  • B
    25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18

    @Karl7

    Interesting. I have yet to play N AF but I know you are a experienced A&A player.

    Lets ask the creator @Matt-Hyra what are your thoughts ?

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  • M

    @barnee

    Counterattack Mersa Brega Round 1 with 2 Infantry, 3 Scout Cars (1 round only), and a Bomber? Up against 3-5 German units and AAA. I wouldn’t call that counterattack “very strong.” On the outside chance it works, Italy easily retakes Mersa Brega and the UK has little left.

    A Suez Bomber in setup is pretty risky. Axis takes Benghazi R2 and Tobruk R3, which leads to a high chance at an Axis Major Victory. Maybe a Total if Malta is starved.

    Keep in mind that most Axis Totals happen in R6-9, not in R5 like you might want. There are plenty of YouTube videos showing Cairo fall. The ones that capture Cairo by R5 are usually due to bad rules knowledge or poor play (“I forgot to detonate landmines”).

    Andrew’s comments are spot on.
    ~Matt

    1
  • Karl7K
    22 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 12

    @Matt-Hyra

    Isn’t there a UK tank in the mix, too? Out of Benghazi? And a fighter?

    I will look at the set up.

    1
  • M

    @Karl7

    Good catch. Yes, the Fighter out of Cairo helps the counterattack, but the UK still has poor casualty options in rounds 2+ of combat.
    The Matilda is Move 1 in Tobruk.
    ~Matt

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  • Karl7K
    22 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 12

    @Matt-Hyra IMG_7966.jpg

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  • Karl7K
    22 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 12

    @Karl7

    Ok, so that is the optimal UK counter attack UK1 assuming:

    1. Germany max attacked and only lost the scout car in attacking
    2. UK put a bomber in the Suez Convoy

    Using low luck:

    • UK has 18 power, so 1.8 hits R1

    • Germany has 19 power defense, so 1.9 hits R1

    Assuming both sides get 2 hits and take weakest units, then R2:

    • UK has 14 power, for 1.4 hits

    • Germany has 13 power, for 1.3 hits

    Assuming both sides get 1 hit, then R3:

    • UK has 12 power, 1.2 hits

    • Germany has 9 power, for 1.9 hits

    Assuming 1 hit each, then R4:

    Uk has 10 power, 2 units

    Germany has the AA gun for 5

    If I were UK I would continue finish the job just to destroy the Germans.

    There is a rules question, however: Can the mech in Tripoli use the road to move into Mersa Brega on non-combat move even though it was captured that turn? If so, obviously that would tip the battle. Not something maybe we understood at the time.

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  • Karl7K
    22 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 12

    @Karl7

    FYI - changed the title, as it was too strong a statement, and probably not accurate

    1
  • H

    I haven’t played this out yet, but I’m curious about what follows.

    Assuming the UK does the bomber placement and the attack succeeds with likely significant losses, it seems their situation is still not ideal… they received no new land units UK1, and they won’t have many arriving UK2 or or UK3. The most they could do for immediate support is reinforce Malta with fighters.

    Germany/Italy on the other hand both receive a decent amount of RP turn 1 to place ground units, and probably won’t have any convoy interdiction R1 and possibly R2. The ground balance should swing possibly even heavier into the Axis favor over R2 and R3. Though maybe the UK gets a longer respite to build up in Tobruk? Holding Tobruk longer does result in a better RP balance in favor of the UK later if they can hold on to that plus Malta.

    Is the main concern here that this counterattack disrupts the Axis timetable that is necessary to put Cairo under risk so that the Axis can at least attempt for a total victory? Or is it about the UK maintaining a more healthy RP balance over the Axis?

    1
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