Out of the Box 2nd Edition League Discussion

farmboy

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris said in Post League Game Results Here:

@AndrewAAGamer this year we have a much harder oob playoff bracket than the previous couple of years. I would wager that the winner of your Farmboy/Andrew quarterfinal will probably win the tournament. So much competition!!!

I am excited to watch the new strategies in your match, and assume the dice gods willl probably be the deciding factor in the close battle.

I’ve just checked out the other games in OOB playoffs. You are right that this has been a stronger OOB playoffs than the last couple of years. But I do think any of us can win the tournament.

farmboy

@gamerman01 we will have to see if this playoffs finish before the end of the year. That is not looking too likely at this point,

AndrewAAGamer

@farmboy said in Post League Game Results Here:

@gamerman01 we will have to see if this playoffs finish before the end of the year. That is not looking too likely at this point,

Well, if you are worried about getting the playoffs done this year you can always take it easy on me and not play your best. 😀

Arthur Bomber Harris

@farmboy I doubt we will finish this year. I still am in a very close match with GeneralDisarray they could stretch on for quite a long time. He is playing well, and the outcome is undecided. the game likely will stretch into the Fall, and that is just the first round of this playoff.

Booper

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris

I was encouraging farmboy to start up a game against Andrew for about a month, as it seemed the outcome seemed inevitable. I was just holding on for a possible dicing moment in my favor, that never materialized.

If anyone looks closely at our match and has any tips for me, I’d be happy to discuss and get some feedback.

gamerman01

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris I felt hugely disrespected by your analysis

@farmboy yes, make sure you get your 3, I hope

@Booper You are like honey calling out to bears. Or is it cheese to mice? Hopefully I work that into my schedule

Arthur Bomber Harris

@gamerman01 let’s see what happens.

When I battled against Andrew and Farmboy in past years, I only was able to win with audacious gambles and copious amounts of dice luck including invincible bombers. They both are quite a bit better than me, and I have a feeling that the dice lords will smile on them this year after some previous bad luck.

Booper

@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:

@Booper You are like honey calling out to bears. Or is it cheese to mice? Hopefully I work that into my schedule

Maybe I will post my own synopsis of some key points in the game, in the OOB discussion forum. Could be some useful lessons learned, for myself and other players.

gamerman01

That would be great. I’m diving in now. Will not micromanage, just make eagle’s view observations

gamerman01

You went 18 rounds. Clearly you lived up to your rep and didn’t do too much wrong.

gamerman01

Well… yeah… 17

gamerman01

I’m done. You lost the game on G1.

Everyone does it, but it’s greedy to go after 110 and 111 both, ESPECIALLY when Farmboy put a bid fighter on Scotland. You got good enough dice on 111, but… 110 you got punished. Losing 3 planes and a sub to get 2 cruisers and a battleship is really bad.

Yugo, you took 3 hits to dice. That is not good at all due to the location.

And France… everyone (and I usually used to) relies on all ground. This is why you shouldn’t. But let’s put that aside and I’ll just remind you that a long time ago, you got bad dice in France.

110 bad, Yugo bad, France bad, I don’t need to keep looking. You went 17 full rounds against a champ after that G1? Well done!!

gamerman01

It may be time to look for new scriptures. Countless games have been to go after 110, 111, and go after France with all ground to avoid AA losses. It just happens too often. Without any air support, you can lose a lot of ground units in France, and that is punishing.

Oh sure, it would be wonderful to wipe out all 3 fighters on London, and take out the cruisers and battleship at the loss of, say, 2 subs and a plane or 2. And sure it would be great to simultaneously take out 111 plus the bid fighter, for only the cost of a sub or 2 and a battleship. Or get cute and retreat the battleship and leave them a fighter.

But do you know how much luck it takes to get all those 3? Question tradition. Brace for normal or worse dice. Re-evaluate G1. I’m serious.

gamerman01

And finally, last but not least, Farmboy did what he should do. Scramble EVERYTHING. Again, a majority would be afraid of the dice and not want to lose every UK plane on G1. Well, you could say it’s hindsight, but… Farmboy won the game on G1 by saying “scramble everything”, and before that, with a bid placement.

With ALL respect to both!

gamerman01

I gotta put in one more thing. When people attack Zone 110 without a battleship, every scrambled plane hit takes out a German plane. You don’t want that.

Arthur Bomber Harris

I definitely would have sent the battleship to 110 to soak up plane hits instead of the subs. I disagree though that it was a bad choice to do the SZ110 + SZ111 attack: Booper had about a 7% chance of winning this match based on ELO differences so an audacious/game-changing turn 1 is often necessary to change the odds to something better than 7%.

Here is the odds for the net planes lost (10 German vs 5 Allied scramblers)

45% disasterous (-1 relative planes lost)
20% not good (0 to +1 plane outcome)
25% good (+2 to +3 plane outcome)
10% amazing (+4 to +5 plane outcome)

Sadly for Booper, he got -3 plane outcome which made this game a Loss on G1, but I think he would have had a reasonable chance of winning in the 35% of outcomes where he gains 2 or more planes in the exchange, and would have a net increase of his expected win rate on average.

Arthur Bomber Harris

@Booper I would master the Cow opener, with more fidelity to his plane. You got almost everything correct on J1, and I agree with you attacking Yunan and SZ62. However, you did not take Borneo which meant your fleet was out of position for a critical extra turn allowing the Allied fleet to give you a bunch of headaches.

There was a risk that UK India could counterattack, but you should have welcomed the chance for him to get diced.

gamerman01

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris said in Out of the Box 2nd Edition League Discussion:

I definitely would have sent the battleship to 110 to soak up plane hits instead of the subs. I disagree though that it was a bad choice to do the SZ110 + SZ111 attack: Booper had about a 7% chance of winning this match based on ELO differences so an audacious/game-changing turn 1 is often necessary to change the odds to something better than 7%.

Nope! He had a really bad G1 and went 17 rounds and could have hung on longer than that.

If you can suffer a G1 like that, I mean, it was really bad, and go 17 rounds with farmboy you definitely had a lot >7% chance

gamerman01

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris said in Out of the Box 2nd Edition League Discussion:

Sadly for Booper, he got -3 plane outcome which made this game a Loss on G1, but I think he would have had a reasonable chance of winning in the 35% of outcomes where he gains 2 or more planes in the exchange, and would have a net increase of his expected win rate on average.

You left something out. I know it’s blasphemy, but you ignored France. He had to route tanks north and south on G2 - terrible! Aircraft over France instead of 110.

I look forward to playing you!

Arthur Bomber Harris

@gamerman01 I looked at the map after turn 5 and it was a very high probability of loss, needing a huge blunder by Farmboy to even have a chance of victory by that point. The victory would have been virtually guaranteed by the end of turn 1 if the Yunnan attack also resulted in disaster.

There is a reason why Farmboy has the ELO ranking he has earned. His mistakes are infrequent and minor, and to capitalize on the errors requires the game to still be close.

There are not too many game-changing battles where luck plays a major portion of the outcome after the first turn. I make the opening as dicey as possible when playing against better opponents like Farmboy or Andrew.

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