@shadowhawk
I’m sorry. I think I forgot to explain one of my points. You’re right that you can easily tell the odds of winning after one round of combat.
The challenge for the British isn’t just determining whether they would win, but how many units they’ll have left over. If the Axis get at least 3 hits in the first round of combat (which they have an 74% chance of getting in the first round), and the British don’t kill the carrier, they will probably have to kill one or two aircraft.
This means the British will have to decide whether to have their remaining aircraft land in Malta, leaving the carrier to be destroyed, or stay in sea zone 97, where they may be able to protect the carrier better but also have a high chance of being destroyed with the carrier by the Lufwaffe.
Now that I’m writing this, the issue sounds pretty dumb and trivial, but in the past it really did leave me unsure of what to do.