Let me expand on the reasoning for a risky I1 attack that has a 13% odds of success like in the top picture above. Farmboy is a significantly better player than me so my estimated odds of winning at the start of the game will be about 20% if I had a fair bid, and only 6%-ish in an OOB match with no bid. Yeah, I would need a dice miracle to pull out that victory.
Hence, I get odds tables like the one shown below. If I attacked either Egpyt or the fleet and get great dice, my odds go way up of victory. If I get diced as the Italians on I1, it isn’t that big of a change since the Italians were not expected to contribute much beyond the can-opening in the Eastern Front which they still can do even after loss of the fleet. When you look at the overall chance of my winning the game, it goes slightly up in a “fair” bid match and way up in the no-bid scenario.
Lesson of this story: take the gamble when you are playing against a superior opponent or if you are playing OOB Allies with no-bid. If the dice are absolutely awful for the Allies on turn 1, concede the match or find another crazy-risky attack to have a chance of winning. Playing conservatively against a superior opponent will inevitably make you lose the game.
Some opponents hate my aggressive under-dog play style and won’t go against me unless it is Low-Luck. I won’t play low-luck against a superior opponent since there is no way to come back against minor mistakes.
