@farmboy said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:
I can’t really expect any system to get things exactly right. As long as players of comparable level are ranked close to each other that would be enough.
Right… and I would add, high level of predictability as to who will win. Of course, the greater the difference, the higher the predictability should be
And that certainly seems to me to be happening here. That being said, I suspect that more data will still make some significant changes to what the standings are. I expect that players like Adam and Axis-D (and JDOW when he appears) and a couple of others will move up relative to the rest of us, and a few others (like me) will consequently move down a bit.
The ratings crossing years is new and exciting, and like you, I can’t wait to see how Babe Ruth matches up against Derek Jeter, though arguments can still remain 😆
The other thing I still have a concern around is the yearly playoffs. If we want a playoffs based on the top 8 (or top 16 as ghostglider suggested) in a given year, I’m not sure how we pull that data from this (such that one’s lifetime ranking doesn’t impact it). I’m sure there is a way but am curious what the thinking is there.
Some of the top goals of the system we’ve been using for many years has been
- Clean 0-0 record every year, while allowing past years’ results to have some impact.
- Annual playoff focus - the system was designed as an improvement of simple win/loss % while maintaining a focus on post-season playoffs.
The following is not to be down on the new ELO system that has many big improvements, but is a demonstration of the quandary that farmboy poses. How do you get a good playoff matchup each year and get good annual ELO results without taking into account any information that occurred before January 1 of this year?
I resisted ELO for years because the rating only goes up or down a limited amount per game, and everyone starts in the same place. If God plays against a tomato, His rating goes from 1500 to 1560, and the tomato’s goes from 1500 to 1440. They would have to play a lot of games before God gets to the perfect 3,000 (indeed it may even be impossible for Him if there is not strong enough competition to play against) and before the tomato goes down to its rightful 0000.
ELO does not do well in our league within a single year and creating good playoff matchups based on that year, and one reason is one player is playing 6 games (the minimum for playoff) and another is playing 50, and everyone else is in between.
However, like farmboy I think there’s some kind of solution.
Without even thinking very long and hard about it, I think it involves factoring in lifetime results, or results over the past few years.