The new ELO-based ranking system

So in the case of exactly even ratings, E(a) = 1.

However I could see this being an issue as that would make the winner get 0 points if I’m understanding correctly:

I read it as a multiplication but the formula is actually an Exponent, so having exactly even rated opponents results in an E(a) of 2, not 1.

That means that the points awarded to the winner will be significant. If they are in the 70-point stage for K, it will award the full 70 points to the winner and deduct from the loser’s ELO.

@AndrewAAGamer Yes, ELO will not award 0 points for winning against an evenly matched player. The points awarded for winning against an evenly matched player are more than for a player ranked below you, and less than for a player ranked above you.

For example if I played you in OOB, your ELO is 1774. It would be my first game in OOB, and so my ELO is 1500, and my K value would be 140. Your K would be 70 as you have already completed at least 10 games.

If I won, I would receive 109 points,

And you would lose 55 points-

For evenly matched players, if the ELO is exactly the same, it should award/deduct whatever the K value in points is for the winning/losing players.

@mr_stucifer said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:

So in the case of exactly even ratings, E(a) = 1.

However I could see this being an issue as that would make the winner get 0 points if I’m understanding correctly:

I read it as a multiplication but the formula is actually an Exponent, so having exactly even rated opponents results in an E(a) of 2, not 1.

That means that the points awarded to the winner will be significant. If they are in the 70-point stage for K, it will award the full 70 points to the winner and deduct from the loser’s ELO.

Oh, I had misread it as a multiplication, too!

Okay - so all this math is WAY over my head. As long as all you math nerds know what you are doing, I feel fine in your hands.

@MrRoboto And that feature takes the place of the PVP matrix I’ve been doing, so that particular information is not lost -

Great!!

This new system and calculation sheet looks great!

I am new to the league, but I could already see a few disadvantages of the old system - that have now been addressed by the new system.

Great work!
💪

But, unfortunately, I cannot support any system that changes my league standing from #1 to #17
😅😜🤪😈

@MrRoboto I was enjoying seeing standings change as the results come in.

I can’t really expect any system to get things exactly right. As long as players of comparable level are ranked close to each other that would be enough. And that certainly seems to me to be happening here. That being said, I suspect that more data will still make some significant changes to what the standings are. I expect that players like Adam and Axis-D (and JDOW when he appears) and a couple of others will move up relative to the rest of us, and a few others (like me) will consequently move down a bit.

I’m happy to add some data when I have the time. But right now this is only read only for me so not sure how to do that.

The other thing I still have a concern around is the yearly playoffs. If we want a playoffs based on the top 8 (or top 16 as ghostglider suggested) in a given year, I’m not sure how we pull that data from this (such that one’s lifetime ranking doesn’t impact it). I’m sure there is a way but am curious what the thinking is there.

@MrRoboto I’m not sure why but I still am unable to put info in. I can’t use the filter either.

AD is ranked fractionally better than me right now. And Adam is fractionally worse But based on their record over the past few years (they and JDOW are regularly ranked 1,2 and 3 of playoff eligible players) I expect we are going to see them move further ahead and put some distance with the rest of us once we input more data. It would be deserved.

I did do feb 2021 and sent it to Roboto in case anyone else was going to work on this

@farmboy Thanks, I expect to have some time tonight to keep working on it so I’ll plan on Oct-Dec 2020 and January 2021

October 2020 - January 2021 is now complete, @MrRoboto can update when he has time.

@Gorshak said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:

But, unfortunately, I cannot support any system that changes my league standing from #1 to #17
😅😜🤪😈

There’s one really effective way to remedy that…

Wait, how did you do emojis? As images?

@gamerman01 you can use them if your keyboard supports it (like from mobile) 🤓

I use emojidb.org when on desktop to copy (it seems like the most user-friendly one I’ve found so far)

🔥🔥🔥🔥

Got it, thanks, just what I needed, you are fast

@farmboy said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:

I can’t really expect any system to get things exactly right. As long as players of comparable level are ranked close to each other that would be enough.

Right… and I would add, high level of predictability as to who will win. Of course, the greater the difference, the higher the predictability should be

And that certainly seems to me to be happening here. That being said, I suspect that more data will still make some significant changes to what the standings are. I expect that players like Adam and Axis-D (and JDOW when he appears) and a couple of others will move up relative to the rest of us, and a few others (like me) will consequently move down a bit.

The ratings crossing years is new and exciting, and like you, I can’t wait to see how Babe Ruth matches up against Derek Jeter, though arguments can still remain 😆

The other thing I still have a concern around is the yearly playoffs. If we want a playoffs based on the top 8 (or top 16 as ghostglider suggested) in a given year, I’m not sure how we pull that data from this (such that one’s lifetime ranking doesn’t impact it). I’m sure there is a way but am curious what the thinking is there.

Some of the top goals of the system we’ve been using for many years has been

1. Clean 0-0 record every year, while allowing past years’ results to have some impact.
2. Annual playoff focus - the system was designed as an improvement of simple win/loss % while maintaining a focus on post-season playoffs.

The following is not to be down on the new ELO system that has many big improvements, but is a demonstration of the quandary that farmboy poses. How do you get a good playoff matchup each year and get good annual ELO results without taking into account any information that occurred before January 1 of this year?

I resisted ELO for years because the rating only goes up or down a limited amount per game, and everyone starts in the same place. If God plays against a tomato, His rating goes from 1500 to 1560, and the tomato’s goes from 1500 to 1440. They would have to play a lot of games before God gets to the perfect 3,000 (indeed it may even be impossible for Him if there is not strong enough competition to play against) and before the tomato goes down to its rightful 0000.

ELO does not do well in our league within a single year and creating good playoff matchups based on that year, and one reason is one player is playing 6 games (the minimum for playoff) and another is playing 50, and everyone else is in between.

However, like farmboy I think there’s some kind of solution.

Without even thinking very long and hard about it, I think it involves factoring in lifetime results, or results over the past few years.