Game History
Round: 1 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 1 carrier, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 3 armour moved from Greater Southern Germany to France 1 artillery moved from Western Germany to France 3 infantry moved from Western Germany to France 2 artilleries moved from Holland Belgium to France 2 infantry moved from Holland Belgium to France 3 armour moved from Holland Belgium to France 4 mech_infantrys moved from Western Germany to France 1 submarine moved from 124 Sea Zone to 111 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 118 Sea Zone to 111 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 108 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 103 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from Germany to 110 Sea Zone 2 tactical_bombers moved from Western Germany to 110 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Holland Belgium to 110 Sea Zone 2 fighters moved from Western Germany to 110 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Norway to 111 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from Western Germany to 111 Sea Zone 1 bomber moved from Germany to 111 Sea Zone 1 battleship moved from 113 Sea Zone to 111 Sea Zone 1 bomber moved from Germany to 110 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 117 Sea Zone to 106 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from Poland to Yugoslavia 1 fighter moved from Slovakia Hungary to Yugoslavia 6 infantry moved from Greater Southern Germany to Yugoslavia 1 armour moved from Slovakia Hungary to Yugoslavia 1 armour moved from Romania to Yugoslavia Combat - Germans British scrambles 3 units out of United Kingdom to defend against the attack in 110 Sea Zone Battle in 111 Sea Zone Germans attack with 1 battleship, 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber British defend with 1 battleship, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the British Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Germans 1 fighter owned by the Germans, 1 bomber owned by the Germans and 1 tactical_bomber owned by the Germans retreated 1 battleship owned by the Germans and 2 submarines owned by the Germans retreated to 112 Sea Zone British win with 1 battleship and 1 cruiser remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8 Casualties for British: 1 destroyer Battle in Yugoslavia Germans attack with 2 armour, 1 fighter, 6 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber Neutral_Allies defend with 5 infantry Germans win, taking Yugoslavia from Neutral_Allies with 2 armour, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry Casualties for Neutral_Allies: 5 infantry Battle in 110 Sea Zone Germans attack with 1 bomber, 3 fighters, 2 submarines and 3 tactical_bombers British defend with 1 battleship, 1 cruiser and 2 fighters; French defend with 1 cruiser and 1 fighter Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the British Germans win with 1 bomber, 2 fighters, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 42 Casualties for Germans: 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers Casualties for British: 1 battleship, 1 cruiser and 2 fighters Casualties for French: 1 cruiser and 1 fighter Battle in France Germans attack with 6 armour, 3 artilleries, 5 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys British defend with 1 armour and 1 artillery; French defend with 1 aaGun, 1 airfield, 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 factory_major, 1 fighter and 6 infantry Germans captures 19PUs while taking French capital Germans converts factory_major into different units Germans win, taking France from French with 6 armour, 1 artillery and 2 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 22 Casualties for Germans: 2 artilleries, 5 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys Casualties for French: 1 aaGun, 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 6 infantry Casualties for British: 1 armour and 1 artillery Battle in 106 Sea Zone Germans attack with 1 submarine British defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport Germans win, taking 106 Sea Zone from Neutral with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 15 Casualties for British: 1 destroyer and 1 transport Trigger Germans Conquer France: Setting switch to true for conditionAttachment_French_1_Liberation_Switch attached to French triggerFrenchDestroyPUsGermans: Setting destroysPUs to true for playerAttachment attached to French Non Combat Move - Germans 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 111 Sea Zone to Western Germany 2 fighters moved from 110 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from 110 Sea Zone to Western Germany 1 bomber moved from 110 Sea Zone to Western Germany 3 infantry moved from Norway to Finland Germans take Finland from Neutral_Axis 1 infantry moved from Romania to Bulgaria Germans take Bulgaria from Neutral_Axis 1 fighter moved from Yugoslavia to Southern Italy 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yugoslavia to Western Germany 1 aaGun moved from Western Germany to France 1 aaGun moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium 2 infantry moved from Denmark to Western Germany 1 cruiser and 1 transport moved from 114 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone 1 aaGun moved from Germany to Slovakia Hungary 1 aaGun moved from Germany to Poland 1 infantry moved from Germany to Poland 1 artillery moved from Greater Southern Germany to Western Germany 1 artillery moved from Greater Southern Germany to Germany Place Units - Germans 1 carrier, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine placed in 112 Sea Zone Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 39 PUs; end with 58 PUs Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 63 PUs Objective Germans 1 Trade with Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 68 PUsThe new ELO-based ranking system
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I was being unclear with what I meant with 10% decay.
I meant 10% of the difference between current ELO and 1500.So a 2000 player would lose 10%, aka 50. And then he is 1950, so the next 10% would bring him down to 1905 and then 1865…
But yeah, I agree - that’s still too harsh.
I’m inclined to go with AndrewAAGamer…
No decay for the overall lifetime ranking.And for the yearly playoffs we only count results from the current year anyway, so decay is not really necessary in the first place.
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@MrRoboto thanks for all the work on this.
One concern. I like the idea of capturing a players’ current strength. But because we play a small number of games I would worry here that two or three games would have too much weight. So if a player that was tier 1 (with 5 games played) ends up beating 3 tier M players in a row, that is pretty good evidence that they are at the same level and they are going to be a top player according to either the existing scoring or the ELO. But if a tier M player (with 5 games played) loses 3 games in a row to other tier M players, with the current scoring they that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are no longer tier M and I am worried with an ELO, the drop might be more dramatic. So for that reason I like that the current league scoring that averages over a year.
One suggestion. This might be onerous, but could you score a year of play so that we could see how this ends up? That would both give us a sense of how well this works and also what might need to be tweaked.
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I absolutely can and will add that, farmboy.
I will also add an indicator, when a player is inactive (should 6 months of not playing be considered inactive or rather 12 months?)But in my opinion, if a player loses 3 games in a row against other Tier M players, then that player shouldn’t be considered M for the moment. He would need to prove himself again with wins to reclaim M tier…
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To everybody: You can help me collect past results!
It’s 3 am here and I have 3 kids, including a 3months old baby. It’s past time I go to bed haha.
Go to the Sheet that’s named “Results before 2023” and enter the data.
There are only 6 cells required and I named them so I think it’s self-explanatoryThe last entry I made myself is on Page 109 of the Post results thread, I was working myself backwards…
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@MrRoboto I can help with this shortly
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@MrRoboto so I just opened the spreadsheets. That is very impressive. I won’t have time to help now but didn’t realize you had already done so much work.
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@MrRoboto sent you a PM as well, look for an email with a link to my spreadsheet for copying data over. I rearranged the columns on my end for faster entry the way brain reads the posts.
Got back to early november 2021 (page 93 fully completed)
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Nice, a group project to get more years recorded. After personally and manually entering every game result for years, I have quite a strong grasp on how good each player is, in a way that can’t really be quantified with bare numbers or a formula.
So I am hoping to see how the numbers will fall with 1/1/22 to date, 1/1/21 to date, or however far we can go back. To the beginning of G40 is the dream. Shouldn’t matter much that the rule sets changed dramatically (especially balanced mod) at some points, since was even competition between many of the same players anyway.
I hope the lifetime ratings will pretty much line up with my experience and memory, and it will be fascinating to see players from years ago stack up in the same rankings against contemporaries.
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So with a lifetime… no K factor adjustment for sensitivity, right?
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I would keep the K factor. It will help new players joining the community finding their correct spot in the ranking faster.
If someone really weak comes, we need that player to fall quickly otherwise the first couple of wins are overrated.
And if the next I don’t know, Napoleon or Sun Tzu, suddenly joins, we need that player to climb super fast otherwise the losses will hurt the respective players more than they should. -
@MrRoboto if the k factor is considered over lifetime (and is too sensitive) an issue might be that players that are strong now, but weaker in the past will have their past games weigh down their current ELO. If I’m right on that, instead of it being a factor in one’s first games, can it be more sensitive in one’s most recent games? That might allow new players to move up more quickly without penalizing players that have been around for a while.
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mega! At first I thought like “may it be fun to play the league games whatever the ranking (system)” - but at this moment I find the project even more thrilling than going on with my games (:) mainly because you gently propose it as a matter of community! And by this you are doing great in keeping @gamerman01 's style!! It looks to me as what you @gamerman01 have fostered dearly is coming of age rather than plotting
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@MrRoboto said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:
I would keep the K factor. It will help new players joining the community finding their correct spot in the ranking faster.
Ah, of course this is right.
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@farmboy said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:
If I’m right on that, instead of it being a factor in one’s first games, can it be more sensitive in one’s most recent games? That might allow new players to move up more quickly without penalizing players that have been around for a while.
Or both?? Sensitive at beginning and also recent?
Or K factor that adjusts to total number of games, where the adjustment is high in the first few games, but if that player continues on to play 15 or 50 or 500, then automatically eliminates those first few game k factor and enacts the later game? MrRoboto, we think you can do anything now. :DI suppose after 50 or 500 whatever games, the k factor being applied to the first few would be practically nil, so maybe could be applied to both beginning and more recent.
Look at those formulas. Look at that automation. We’ll figure it out.
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@farmboy and @gamerman01
This is not possible since that would mean to retroactively adapt the ELO change of past games when you play more recent games.
That contradicts the whole idea and is actually not even possible to implement since that creates circular references again - the biggest problem the old system had.It’s also not necessary at all. As you, gamerman, already stated: At a certain point the first few games are completely irrelevant. That point is FAR earlier than 50 games.
Just an extreme example:
Dawgoneit is currently 5-45, with an ELO of 1059
With only 4 wins against some of the current top5 players, he can increase his rating to ~1600 even though he still is only 9-45 at that point.
The system accurately shows the current strength.Thanks to Mr_Stucifer we now have the data of 2022 too. I think the system already looks extremely solid.
Everybody can create a copy for themselves with
File -> Make a Copy.You can then play around and add some results as you like to see how the system behaves.
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Um, guys?
The Hubble telescope just got the corrected lens. With another year or 15 months whatever of data (2022, some of 2021) and whatever adjustment Roboto just made,
I am super excited and happy to see this standings board. Like I said, with my experience of entering every game result and, indeed, reading comments and what all is involved with moderating the league for years,
I can tell you THIS outcome is excellent.
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Now that is what it would look like if there was a “lifetime” rating starting in late 2021. This is not what 2023 would look like. And of course our past rankings spreadsheet will fill out 2023 so that playoffs are unaffected and comparability across years will be there.
But something like this, and will be better after conversations and tweaking, is coming to a computer near you in 1/1/24.
More than half the credit goes to Roboto for enthusiasm, computer ability, and pushing for improvement. I was hard to get through, but today with this spreadsheet pictured below, I am a believer and this is the future.
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intereasting ideas… from the new elo spreadsheet my overall rating is 1673, my OOb is1546 and BM is 1552
How can my overall ranking be higher than then any of the two individual game version rankings?
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@oysteilo said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:
intereasting ideas… from the new elo spreadsheet my overall rating is 1673, my OOb is1546 and BM is 1552
How can my overall ranking be higher than then any of the two individual game version rankings?
One quick explanation/example is if you defeated someone in BM who normally plays PtV or OOB and is more successful there.
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also look at Jkeller, he is number one in overall, but I only find his name in the OOB bracket where he is 7th.
Maybe I am missing something?