Game History
Round: 1 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 1 carrier, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 3 armour moved from Greater Southern Germany to France 1 artillery moved from Western Germany to France 3 infantry moved from Western Germany to France 2 artilleries moved from Holland Belgium to France 2 infantry moved from Holland Belgium to France 3 armour moved from Holland Belgium to France 4 mech_infantrys moved from Western Germany to France 1 submarine moved from 124 Sea Zone to 111 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 118 Sea Zone to 111 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 108 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 103 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from Germany to 110 Sea Zone 2 tactical_bombers moved from Western Germany to 110 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Holland Belgium to 110 Sea Zone 2 fighters moved from Western Germany to 110 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Norway to 111 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from Western Germany to 111 Sea Zone 1 bomber moved from Germany to 111 Sea Zone 1 battleship moved from 113 Sea Zone to 111 Sea Zone 1 bomber moved from Germany to 110 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 117 Sea Zone to 106 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from Poland to Yugoslavia 1 fighter moved from Slovakia Hungary to Yugoslavia 6 infantry moved from Greater Southern Germany to Yugoslavia 1 armour moved from Slovakia Hungary to Yugoslavia 1 armour moved from Romania to Yugoslavia Combat - Germans British scrambles 3 units out of United Kingdom to defend against the attack in 110 Sea Zone Battle in 111 Sea Zone Germans attack with 1 battleship, 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber British defend with 1 battleship, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the British Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Germans 1 fighter owned by the Germans, 1 bomber owned by the Germans and 1 tactical_bomber owned by the Germans retreated 1 battleship owned by the Germans and 2 submarines owned by the Germans retreated to 112 Sea Zone British win with 1 battleship and 1 cruiser remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8 Casualties for British: 1 destroyer Battle in Yugoslavia Germans attack with 2 armour, 1 fighter, 6 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber Neutral_Allies defend with 5 infantry Germans win, taking Yugoslavia from Neutral_Allies with 2 armour, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry Casualties for Neutral_Allies: 5 infantry Battle in 110 Sea Zone Germans attack with 1 bomber, 3 fighters, 2 submarines and 3 tactical_bombers British defend with 1 battleship, 1 cruiser and 2 fighters; French defend with 1 cruiser and 1 fighter Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the British Germans win with 1 bomber, 2 fighters, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 42 Casualties for Germans: 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers Casualties for British: 1 battleship, 1 cruiser and 2 fighters Casualties for French: 1 cruiser and 1 fighter Battle in France Germans attack with 6 armour, 3 artilleries, 5 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys British defend with 1 armour and 1 artillery; French defend with 1 aaGun, 1 airfield, 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 factory_major, 1 fighter and 6 infantry Germans captures 19PUs while taking French capital Germans converts factory_major into different units Germans win, taking France from French with 6 armour, 1 artillery and 2 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 22 Casualties for Germans: 2 artilleries, 5 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys Casualties for French: 1 aaGun, 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 6 infantry Casualties for British: 1 armour and 1 artillery Battle in 106 Sea Zone Germans attack with 1 submarine British defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport Germans win, taking 106 Sea Zone from Neutral with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 15 Casualties for British: 1 destroyer and 1 transport Trigger Germans Conquer France: Setting switch to true for conditionAttachment_French_1_Liberation_Switch attached to French triggerFrenchDestroyPUsGermans: Setting destroysPUs to true for playerAttachment attached to French Non Combat Move - Germans 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 111 Sea Zone to Western Germany 2 fighters moved from 110 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from 110 Sea Zone to Western Germany 1 bomber moved from 110 Sea Zone to Western Germany 3 infantry moved from Norway to Finland Germans take Finland from Neutral_Axis 1 infantry moved from Romania to Bulgaria Germans take Bulgaria from Neutral_Axis 1 fighter moved from Yugoslavia to Southern Italy 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yugoslavia to Western Germany 1 aaGun moved from Western Germany to France 1 aaGun moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium 2 infantry moved from Denmark to Western Germany 1 cruiser and 1 transport moved from 114 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone 1 aaGun moved from Germany to Slovakia Hungary 1 aaGun moved from Germany to Poland 1 infantry moved from Germany to Poland 1 artillery moved from Greater Southern Germany to Western Germany 1 artillery moved from Greater Southern Germany to Germany Place Units - Germans 1 carrier, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine placed in 112 Sea Zone Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 39 PUs; end with 58 PUs Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 63 PUs Objective Germans 1 Trade with Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 68 PUsThe new ELO-based ranking system
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I saw ABH’s last comment after I posted. I would still stick to the tournament as we have it, but nothing stops us from also doing a larger tournament every couple of years alongside league play if there is interest in setting it up.
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I am also strongly in favor of an annual tournament with only one bracket. This should not be an issue with OOB and PtV in the near to mid-term future due to the relatively low number of participants.
We can work a lot with byes, with top seeded players only joining in round 2 or 3 and the defending champion only in the semi-finals, for example.
At the same time, we could make the days-per-turn rule stricter in the first one or two rounds of the Playoffs and say two days per turn for round 1.
Of course, you can still ask for a break in case of business trips, sickness or whatever, but this should shorten the first Playoff round(s) by a few weeks.
Thank you all for your work by the way!!
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Lotta great ideas, this is what I was hoping for!
I read all posts but MrRobotos (will read that next)But I can tell you right now, even with Martin’s cool ideas on speeding it up, that I am firm on a bracket of no more than 8 for a few major reasons.
Even with byes to reduce total number of games, it only takes one game to stop everything. Going to 16, even with some byes (which means less than 16 players) means many more chances for a weak link of the chain to hold everything up.
You can institute timers like the same as regular league games, but I don’t want the #3 player being bounced by the #12 or whatever in round 1 (assuming 1 and 2 get byes) because he took 4 days for a move.
Going with more than 8 also cheapens the regular season.
The thought of a big 16 man tourney is intriguing and interesting, of course, but there’s not much theater in the #3 mopping up the floor with the #14. Or the #1 to the #16 if there are no byes.
Personally I’d rather see a 2 round, 4 man bracket for the championship for the above reasons.
2022 BM playoffs
#1 is fighting #3
2nd bracket
#1 is fighting #22021 BM playoffs
#2 beat #4 for the champ
2nd bracket
#2 beat #42020 BM playoffs
#3 beat #5
2nd bracket
#3 beat #42019 BM playoffs
#2 beat #4
2nd bracket
#2 beat #12018 BM playoffs
#2 beat #1
2nd bracket
#1 beat #22017 BM playoffs
#4 beat #2
2nd bracket
#5 beat #72016 BM playoffs
#8 beat #2
2nd bracket
#7 beat #42015 BM playoffs
#3 beat #4
2nd bracket
#1 beat #2
3rd bracket
#3 beat #4That is a LOT of actual results that show that almost always, #1-4 win it. The additional brackets give players #9 through #16 more competitive games and a chance to win a bracket and go into all-time league history.
In fact, looking at the data, the #5-#8 seeds are just there to take punches, fall to the mat, and make it a little longer and more interesting.
With brackets of 4, you get winners in September instead of February the next year.
I’m not making a decree and I’m not meaning to argue, just putting my position out there for you to think about.
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Aaaand, there is another reasons for shorter playoffs than longer.
On the one hand, it makes matchups of players who otherwise haven’t played each other and maybe never would.
On the other hand, it forces players to play someone they didn’t choose. A HUGE part of league play is being able to choose your opponents, which, by the way, makes it VERY different than major sports where they have a set schedule to play 1-2 games against a wide variety of opponents.
Just more food for thought.
I need to read Roboto’s post now about sectioning years and whatever else. -
@gamerman01 you left off the OOB results. ;). I am a mediocre player but have had a few big upsets in my career as I bribe the dice lords with lots of presents and saved-up karma.
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@Arthur-Bomber-Harris said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:
@gamerman01 you left off the OOB results.
I did.
Not intentional, just didn’t want to scroll down lol -
OK, now I have read MrRoboto’s post, and wow, is that eloquent!
I wholeheartedly agree with just about everything he said.
My favorite option is to use ELO at the end of the year for players who met the minimum games requirement and sign up (want in).
Since only 3 games (rightly) required for OOB and PTV, obviously you’re not going to have very accurate ratings in some instances. This has been true under the past system as well (uses averages, and clean slate each year), but now we have a lot more data.
A new player to OOB or PtV will rapidly get a fairly accurate rating (even in 3 games) playing against others who are known quantities. If starting everyone at 1500 at Jan 1, not as accurate.
I really like MrRoboto’s Oysteilo example. He only played 3 games and those 3 games really don’t give much information. He’s better than our beloved Dawg, but couldn’t beat AndrewAAGamer in one game.
This means he’s like most players. Somewhere between the top and bottom.
But with his lifetime rating of 1669 lowering slightly from these 3 games to 1659, we have a much clearer picture of the mad skillz Oysteilo brings to the table than the little sample of 3 2023 games. -
@gamerman01 said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:
but couldn’t beat AndrewAAGamer in one game.
He came dang close to it…
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@AndrewAAGamer said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:
@gamerman01 said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:
but couldn’t beat AndrewAAGamer in one game.
He came dang close to it…
Thank you!!
And that proves MrRoboto’s point and mine.A loss is a loss and a system based on wins and losses doesn’t care how close a game is.
The lifetime ELO for him does show it.
With only 3 games, and a near miss against AndrewAAGamer, a year that stands alone merely shows a sterile:2 wins at Dawg
1 loss to AndrewPut that on your tombstone
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Conclusion:
The ELO ranking is the most accurate way we ever had to get the actual strength of every player, especially compared to each other. It is even more accurate the more games you have played (20+ games should be sufficient to give a very accurate assessment).
On the flipside, you should take the ELO rating of player with less than 10 completed games with a grain of salt.
But among us active players, you can very comfortably rely on the rankings to choose your opponents: Do you seek a challenge, take on players with 100 more points than yourself.
Are you looking for equal strength, search within plus / minus 100 points of your own rating. And if you want some low risk, low reward game to just have fun and slowly and slightly climb the rankings, go lower than 100 points below your own ranking. -
Or, if you are @Adam514 , just ignore ELO and farm each and every one of us, enjoying a 90% winrate over 165 games
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What’s all the argument about anyway? :)
Hope you all are having a great holiday season. I do miss this community.
So this is cool, thanks for putting this together:
According to this, I still have the most wins by a significant margin, even after sitting out for an entire year now lol
BTW I am 2-0 against the 2nd ranked player. Adam, however, has always been better than me I will admit that. I think he has beaten me at least 2 out of every 3 games, maybe more idk I’d have to look back.
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No argument, just discussion among very analytical people about how to do year by year playoffs
What a pleasant surprise -
Where ya been?!You did see there are sheets for each version?
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@AndrewAAGamer oysteilo beat me twice, once as Allies and once as Axis, by convincing beatdowns. I gave up in one game when Egypt and my UK forces got so thoroughly crushed on I2 that there was no coming back.
I was so relieved when you knocked him out of the tournament since I wasn’t looking forward to a third beat down.
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@gamerman01 got busy working for a startup, then when that didn’t go as planned i joined another one… also, i have been playing a lot of Twilight Imperium 4th ed (TI4), and that’s quite a game! here’s a pic yesterday’s game with a group of friends (I was the pink faction):
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@axis-dominion said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:
BTW I am 2-0 against the 2nd ranked player. Adam, however, has always been better than me I will admit that. I think he has beaten me at least 2 out of every 3 games, maybe more idk I’d have to look back.
Well, I made the mistake not playing you earlier when it was easy to beat you because you regularly blundered ;-)
Then, you stopped blundering and became super strong, and this is when I started playing you. I am still traumatized by our play-off match in which a surprise Neutral Crush entirely wrecked my (I believe at this point decent) position within a single turn :-(
So yes, getting your scalp at least once is a reason for me to return to the league^^
I am btw 2:1 vs Adam :D (Probably one win not recorded because it may have taken place in a Tournament and may not have counted for the league)
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Ummmmm…
It’s just a fact that if @JDOW and @axis-dominion returned, the league would be at full strength on top maybe like never before (according to the life-time ELOs) -
just to get this straight.
are we just continuing on the old results or is everyone starting at 1500 elo on jan 1.2024?
My understaning was to start everyone at 1500 -
My understanding is that the ELO system is a life long rating and should take into account all games ever played. It will continue based no the hundreds of game results that were just input.
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@Martin said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:
My understanding is that the ELO system is a life long rating and should take into account all games ever played. It will continue based no the hundreds of game results that were just input.
This.
The system works best when you have around 15-20 games or more. It would only weaken the accuracy if we started on 1-1-2024 instead of all games ever.
As of today, 4519 games have been counted - a little bit more than “hundreds” ;-)