Mainah (Allies+56) vs Enno (X) OOB

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 7 artilleries and 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys moved from Northwest Persia to Iraq

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in Iraq
            Russians attack with 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys
            Neutral_Axis defend with 2 infantry
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys in Iraq, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Neutral_Axis roll dice for 2 infantry in Iraq, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 mech_infantry owned by the Russians lost in Iraq
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry in Iraq, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Neutral_Axis roll dice for 2 infantry in Iraq, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 mech_infantry owned by the Russians lost in Iraq
            1 armour owned by the Russians retreated to Northwest Persia
            Neutral_Axis win with 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
            Casualties for Russians: 2 mech_infantrys

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        3 infantry moved from Ukraine to Rostov
        4 infantry moved from Bryansk to Smolensk
        2 artilleries and 7 infantry moved from Russia to Smolensk
        4 aaGuns, 1 armour, 8 artilleries, 1 fighter, 25 infantry, 6 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Belarus to Smolensk
        6 infantry moved from Yenisey to Timguska

    Place Units - Russians
        7 artilleries and 2 infantry placed in Russia

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 30 PUs; end with 30 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : -1.50
Neutral_Axis regular : 0.67

mainah-vs-enno-g40-R3.tsvg

The Iraqi insurgents were just too much for the Russians…

@Enno said in Mainah (Allies+56) vs Enno (X) OOB:

@mainah mainah-vs-enno-g40- G3.tsvg
Thanks. Move could have been better, made a stupid mistake… Go USSR!

Missed having a G infantry loaded. Happens to all of us.

@Enno
ooo.

Got to look at the history a bit…

you have the advantage, it would be nice and educational to see if I can spot this…

found it -

though it is sketchy, hence why I didnt see it at first. Trying to play it out a few ways to find the least risky way, but so far, my choice is an 80% for a very important win, or a 98% win with a 1/3 chance of losing my fleet. And either way, its a full commit - if I try and fail, there is no coming back.

I am pretty sure I am going to go for it.

I have made way too many errors, I have no choice but to take the shot.
Unlikely you will give me a better one.
Going to let my head clear for a day, then work on finalizing the details and the purchases.
Either way - learned and relearned a bunch. Enjoying the game. It has taken off a lot of built up rust on my game skills.

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Americans buy 1 bomber, 1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Americans
        1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Gibraltar to 91 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 transport moved from 91 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from 112 Sea Zone to Norway

    Combat - Americans
        Germans scrambles 1 units out of Western Germany to defend against the attack in 112 Sea Zone
        Germans scrambles to create a battle in territory 112 Sea Zone
        Battle in 112 Sea Zone
            Americans attack with 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
            Germans defend with 1 fighter
                Americans roll dice for 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 transport in 112 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter in 112 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 cruiser owned by the Americans lost in 112 Sea Zone
                1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in 112 Sea Zone
            Americans win with 1 destroyer and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is -2
            Casualties for Americans: 1 cruiser
            Casualties for Germans: 1 fighter
        Battle in Norway

    Non Combat Move - Americans
        1 armour and 1 infantry moved from Gibraltar to 91 Sea Zone
        1 armour, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 91 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 91 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        1 armour and 1 infantry moved from 112 Sea Zone to Norway
        2 fighters moved from Gibraltar to United Kingdom
        1 infantry moved from Central United States to Western United States
        1 destroyer moved from 33 Sea Zone to 34 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from Queensland to India
        1 carrier and 2 fighters moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
        1 carrier, 5 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 10 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone

    Place Units - Americans
        1 transport placed in 101 Sea Zone
        1 carrier, 1 destroyer and 1 transport placed in 10 Sea Zone
        1 bomber and 2 fighters placed in Eastern United States

    Turn Complete - Americans
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 3
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 125 Sea Zone. Rolls: 3,3
        Americans collect 50 PUs (3 lost to blockades); end with 50 PUs
        Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 60 PUs
        Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 65 PUs
        Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 70 PUs

    Purchase Units - Chinese
        Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed
        Chinese buy 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Chinese
        2 infantry moved from Kansu to Suiyuyan
        1 fighter moved from Kansu to Suiyuyan

    Combat - Chinese
        Battle in Suiyuyan
            Chinese attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
            Japanese defend with 1 mech_infantry
                Chinese roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Suiyuyan, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Suiyuyan, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 mech_infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Suiyuyan
            Chinese win, taking Suiyuyan from Japanese with 1 fighter and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 mech_infantry

    Non Combat Move - Chinese
        1 fighter moved from Suiyuyan to Tsinghai

    Place Units - Chinese
        2 infantry placed in Kansu

    Turn Complete - Chinese
        Chinese collect 5 PUs; end with 7 PUs

    Purchase Units - British
        British buy 1 carrier and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Purchase Units - UK_Pacific
        UK_Pacific buy 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - British
        2 fighters moved from Egypt to 99 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser and 2 destroyers moved from 81 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        1 armour, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Kenya to Ethiopia

    Combat - British
        Battle in 99 Sea Zone
            British attack with 1 cruiser, 2 destroyers and 2 fighters
            Italians defend with 1 battleship, 2 cruisers and 2 transports
                British roll dice for 1 cruiser, 2 destroyers and 2 fighters in 99 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 2.17 expected hits
            Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Italians
                Italians roll dice for 1 battleship, 2 cruisers and 2 transports in 99 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the British lost in 99 Sea Zone
                British roll dice for 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters in 99 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/4 hits, 1.83 expected hits
                Italians roll dice for 1 battleship, 2 cruisers and 2 transports in 99 Sea Zone, round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the British and 1 cruiser owned by the British lost in 99 Sea Zone
            2 fighters owned by the British retreated
            Italians win with 1 battleship, 2 cruisers and 2 transports remaining. Battle score for attacker is -28
            Casualties for British: 1 cruiser and 2 destroyers
        Battle in Ethiopia
            British attack with 1 armour, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            Italians defend with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Ethiopia, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Italians roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Ethiopia, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the British lost in Ethiopia
                British roll dice for 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry in Ethiopia, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Italians roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Ethiopia, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 mech_infantry owned by the British lost in Ethiopia
            1 armour owned by the British retreated to Kenya
            Italians win with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -10
            Casualties for British: 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry

    Non Combat Move - British
        1 transport moved from 72 Sea Zone to 71 Sea Zone
        1 battleship moved from 76 Sea Zone to 71 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Persia to Egypt
        2 fighters moved from 99 Sea Zone to Egypt
        1 infantry moved from Morocco to 91 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 91 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        1 aaGun moved from United Kingdom to 110 Sea Zone
        1 aaGun, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 110 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone
        1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from 112 Sea Zone to Norway
        2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Norway
        1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to United Kingdom
        1 bomber moved from Gibraltar to Norway
        1 battleship, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 103 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Algeria to 110 Sea Zone
        1 armour moved from Morocco to Tunisia
        1 aaGun and 3 infantry moved from Algeria to Tunisia

    Place Units - British
        1 carrier and 2 transports placed in 110 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - British
        British collect 30 PUs; end with 30 PUs

    Place Units - UK_Pacific
        2 infantry placed in India

    Turn Complete - UK_Pacific
        UK_Pacific collect 6 PUs; end with 6 PUs
        Some Units in India change ownership: 2 infantry

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese regular : 0.17
Americans regular : 0.17
Italians regular : 1.33
Japanese regular : -0.33
Germans regular : 0.33
British regular : -4.67

Couldn’t wait. The Americans had to upgrade their clothing. The British Navy has been on a successful diet and has lost a few tonnes. Chinese are adapting to the western plains.

@mainah

I’m going to play it through, but this might be the fail. Needed both Norway and the Battle in the Aegan to succeed, though Norway was far more important.

@Enno
No worries on the slow play. I would like to play on - giving up seems in bad taste, and the game is still enjoyable.

I will have to back and double check, but I seem to recall that without the bomber in Norway, your counter attack had a 50%ish success, and I do not have much to follow up with.
These two battles each had a 82-85% ish chance. But that meant there was only a 68-70% chance of both succeeding. If I had sent the bomber to attack the Italians it upped it to 92(I think) but you could have at least had a good strafe onto Norway, with the possibility of letting it go to round two if you suffered less than average casualties in the first round. As doing well in the med was going to be fruitless if I didn’t hold Norway, and as I had too poor of a position in the board in general, I felt that a 67% rate for a re-balanced European theatre was as good as I was going to get.

Don’t know why I ponder it out so well AFTER the mistakes build on top of one another, but such is life.