I had a couple of suggestions for playing allies since I think (especially given the hefty bids) that you can win with them.
First, its good to ‘know your enemy’ and plan the bid around what they do. There are some axis players that mix it up, but quite often they have a default opening that they rely on. So you can bid for that. Whenever I play a game now, I check out the last 4-5 games my opponent has played as axis in order to plan my bid. I often see the same opening in all the games and if they adjust their opening as a result, you’ve at least made the choice for them, and they are probably not playing how they prefer.
I’ve mostly played BM since I started playing A&A here, and I’ve played a lot more and become a better player since making the switch. So, I’m rusty on OOB and it is worth taking this all with a grain of salt (and I’m relearning what a challenge the allies are in the one OOB game I’m playing). But, I think the principles are sound and apply across both versions.
I haven’t followed Andrew’s games too closely (since I play BM) but it looks to me that he prefers a J1. This is what I understand is probably the optimal strategy in OOB.
Knowing that, my bid is going to try to make that more difficult. Being able to hold Yunnan early as Oysteilo suggests is key so that Japan has a problem containing China. And you can very cheaply help out India as well.
I’d still prioritize the UK fleet over spending more on the Soviets. More Soviet inf might delay the Germans a turn or two, but it won’t allow the Soviets to alter Germany’s advantage over the Soviets. If the UK gets control in the Atlantic and the Med, it forces the Germans to spend to counter that, and it allows the allies to set up a pipeline moving allied air to Moscow. The sooner that happens the better. If it happens soon enough, you can actually delay the Germans from getting Caucasus and Volgograd, which is huge.
The allied player also needs to be less risk averse. You should still try to avoid risky attacks, but you should be more prepared to offer them to the axis, especially when you know that your opponent plays to avoid risk as Andrew (rightly) does. So for example, in the bid that Oysteilo proposed, he commits a bid of two Soviet fighters to Yunnan (+ the bid of an additional Chinese inf) because, I presume, that is the amount necessary to bring Japan’s chances attacking Yunnan below 50%. But with the bid of an inf and just one Soviet fig (along with the soviet fig and tac in Moscow), Japan’s odds are 51% (with a 5% chance of a draw) if Andrew goes all in (which is harder to do on a J1). Is Andrew going to attack Yunnan with those odds? Probably not, but even if he does, you are forcing someone whose win percentage is about 90% to gamble on a battle that has basically a 50% chance of setting Japan back.
A problem that allied players often have (and I certainly still struggle with it) is understanding that you can often get away with offering these riskier combats to the axis. For a long time, I played the game such that when my opponent had better than 50% odds of winning, I retreated. This is not the right way to play. It will sometimes be better to defend even when their odds approach 80-90%. Just because they have better odds of winning, doesn’t mean the battle is advisable. And Andrew has made clear that his approach to the game is risk averse. I absolutely agree is the right way to play, but that does create an opportunity for the allies to play a bit more forward and aggressively.
When Japan can threaten India you can think about this the same way. Japan may have very good odds of winning, but if the trade is India for a substantial portion of Japan’s airforce, it is probably better to defend India and dare them to attack rather than retreat.
So one reason to offer up these riskier battles is because the axis player will not risk them and in retreating you are conceding territory that don’t actually need to. But there is another reason too. A feature of the game is that both axis powers usually have the ability, when optimally played, to overwhelm the allies within a certain sphere of territory. When, for example, the Japanese fleet and air are stationed in FIC, and 35 or 36 sea zone, they can keep China back from Yunnan, the British out of Burma, the Soviets out of Manchuria, and the American fleet away from the money islands or Japan. But they can’t win the game there. What they need to win is outside that sphere, and as soon as they go for it, they are no longer able to protect much of it. So if India is defended, and Japan goes for it, apart from the risk that they are trading air for inf, it can often mean that Japan is out of position to counter the allies in the Pacific and in Korea. If the British do retreat, than Japan doesn’t need to move out of position to take it and the allies remain on the outside everywhere else.
There are circumstances where even 100% odds on India are not advisable, because it forces Japan out of position and the US is ready to pounce. But you need to set it up so that the allies are ready to pounce (I’ll note that this is probably harder to do on a J1 since Japan can often take India before the US is ready).
This logic also applies to the European theatre too. If the allies are ready, it is hard for the Germans to threaten Moscow without exposing territory in Western Europe and if they do go for Moscow, their air are definitely out of position to defend France and Norway.
This doesn’t mean you should never retreat, but it does mean that you shouldn’t automatically retreat because your opponent’s odds of winning are better. It’s often better to dare them to attack as long as you have set up the groundwork to push them elsewhere on the map.