How do you respond as UK to this german first turn?

@ncscswitch:

A third version…
UK consolidates their fleet in SZ7 on UK1.  USSR places their Sub in SZ6 on R2.  Now you cannot NCM your Baltic Fleet for the link-up, since the link-up has to occur in a combat zone (unless you win in SZ7).  Baltic fleet can’t reach because of the SUB.  And to even attempt the link, either an offensive ship from the Baltic or a FIG has to be used to kill or submerge the sub, reducing your combat power in the SZ7 strike.  Med fleet has to fight the UK navy alone (with Luftwaffe assistance) in SZ7.  Then of course, the US gets to counter with AF and their initial SZ10 fleet against whatever MIGHT have lived from the German Med Fleet in USA2, again before the link-up can be attempted.  And UK can still drop their new naval builds in SZ7 on UK2, meaning ANOTHER round of combat before the remnants, if any, of the German fleets can link up.

That isn’t going to block the merge, assuming Germany really wants to do it.  Don’t forget, the Russian screening sub will NOT block the Baltic subs from attacking SZ7.

Let’s assume Germany is down one fighter from the start, and staged their fighters in range on SZ7 (both reasonable assumptions) you have this in G2:

Germany:
Med BB, Sub, and TRN to SZ7
2 Subs from baltic to SZ7
4 Fighters and 1 Bomber to SZ7

1 Fighter to SZ6

Battles
SZ7: 1 TRN, 3 Subs, 1 BB, 4 Fighters, 1 Bombers VS. 3 TRNs, 1 AC, 1 BB, 2 Fighters
About a 97% chance of Axis win with most common result being the BB and all air survive.  About a 37-40% chance at least one sub survives too.  Germany can sacrifice some fighters if they really want some subs to survive.

SZ6: 1 Fighter VS. 1 Sub
100% chance the sub is dead or submerged at the end of combat, and the Fighter will always survive.

So in Noncombat the Germans can move the rest of Baltic fleet to merge in SZ7.  That’s either 1 DD, 1 AC, 1 TRN or 1 DD,  3-4 TRNs depending on which Naval strat Germany is going for.

So at the end of G2, SZ7 contains 1 BB, 1 DD, 1 TRN plus either (1 AC, 2 Fighters) or (plus 2-3 TRNs).  In either case a decent shot of plus one Sub as well.

In the first case that’s a dPunch of 19, count of 7 (21/8 with a sub).  The second (let’s assume Germany bought 2 TRNs for the Baltic in G1) is dPunch 10, count 6.  (Higher with more TRNs purchased G1 and/or with surviving subs).

The TRN force will get decimated by the US counter, assuming the US staged enough air in range on US1.  The AC force will probably defeat the US counter.  But if the Germans went for TRNs on G1, it may be better for them to attack the UK capital on G2 instead of attempting to merge.

But in any case this “third version” does NOT prevent the merge.  If you combined your third version with the US DD and TRNs moving to SZ12 in US1, THAT would prevent a merge.  Though it might also result in a lot of dead allied navy in G2.  To be fair, a lot of German navy and/or air would die as well if Germany did attack in G2.  I guess the question would then be, could Germany and Japan put enough pressure on Russia to crack them while the US and UK rebuild their infrastructure?

Sorry Squire.  i was less than clear.

My original post was the entire US SZ10 fleet to SZ8 to offload to London.  That allows a DST, 2 TRN for fodder, 1-3 FIGs, and a BOM to counter-attack the German fleet(s) in USA2.

Sending the DST (or both the DST and the TRNs) to SZ12 is another option.

And I am sure that the 3 moves I psoted above are not the only blocks/counters  They are just 3 I thought of offhand.  And then there are variations on those 3 (A DST instead of the TRN and INF to block SUBS from sailing through would be a prime example).

Correct me if I am wrong, but the purpose of buying TRNs in the Baltic is to both threaten Sea Lion, and to help increase the odds of a Kreigsmarine link-up.  To achieve that purpose, Germany has to buy the TRN’s, get the Baltic fleet relatively intact to SZ7, get the Med fleet to SZ7 relatively intact, and have sufficient AF available to support an attempted landing in London.

With a strong UK naval buy, the AF is needed for the naval battle, and the TRNs are likely to be fodder.  That removes the Sea Lion Threat, both in the initial move, and in the linked fleet that is missing TRNs and is not adjacent to an IC so that more can be dropped and protected.  Also, in trying to link the fleets to preserve them, you have to fight through a very tough little UK fleet in SZ6, with expected heavy losses.  And any ships that engage in combat in SZ6 won;t reach SZ7 until G3… and you probably won;t kill that SZ6 fleet with just AF (97% failure probability of 5 FIG, 1 BOM against 1 AC, 2 FIG, 1 SUB, 2 TRN, 1 DST, 1 BB).  That means that, after G2, you have not made the link-up, and now UK gets to counter (maybe with just a BOM, but only 1 of those fleets has a BB, so they will take out a unit on average), and the US (with up to 3 FIGs, 1 BOM, 1 DST, 2 TRN).

So Germany spends 60% of their initial buy on Navy, and come G3, they MAY have 2 units left in the Atlantic, if the dice were favorable; more likely the Atlantic is devoid of ships, Allied and German.

But then on UK 3, UK builds fleet, more US fleet sails in and more is built.  Allies are landing anywhere they want in Europe or Africa on T4.  And Russia has probably done rather well in the East with the Luftwaffe beign tied up on sea duty.

If all you want is to secure Germany from landings before T4, there are cheaper ways to do it.  IMHO.

@JamesG:

 If you combined your third version with the US DD and TRNs moving to SZ12 in US1, THAT would prevent a merge. Â

BUT that would be a real bad idea if Germany bought Baltic transports on G1.  With UK buying an AC and TRN on UK1 and the US sending only air to the UK on US1, that invites a UK capital grab by Germany on G2.

Staging in SZ7 was posted only as an option for blocking the merge, not for stopping Sea Lion.

With a high TRN buy, I personally would stage heavy in SZ6, force Germany to use their AF on the naval battle, preventing a G2 landing in London due to lack of air support, and take out the Med Fleet that is somewhere in the Atlantic with the US naval and air units on US2.

But that is just me, you mileage may vary :-D

@JamesG:

@JamesG:

 If you combined your third version with the US DD and TRNs moving to SZ12 in US1, THAT would prevent a merge. Â

BUT that would be a real bad idea if Germany bought Baltic transports on G1.  With UK buying an AC and TRN on UK1 and the US sending only air to the UK on US1, that invites a UK capital grab by Germany on G2.

(Thx for the backup JamesG.)

Yes, it does. And it would.

The USA transports MUST go to SZ8 to offload. That leaves 1 DD to block, which leaves BB,AC 2 fighters DD, maybe sub/trans vs counter of USA of DD 2 trans and fighter/Bomber. NOT good odds for USA.

Again, your build will NOT prevent a block attempt, or if in SZ12, it risks an attack on UK.

Squirecam

@ncscswitch:

Staging in SZ7 was posted only as an option for blocking the merge, not for stopping Sea Lion.

With a high TRN buy, I personally would stage heavy in SZ6, force Germany to use their AF on the naval battle, preventing a G2 landing in London due to lack of air support, and take out the Med Fleet that is somewhere in the Atlantic with the US naval and air units on US2.

But that is just me, you mileage may vary :-D

The point was to prevent a merge. But the only valid merge-blocker posted so far leaves London at risk.

But since you place in SZ6, Germany CAN fight and CAN merge. Which was my point. Your build will not prevent a merge. But thanks for playing. :)

Squirecam

@ncscswitch:

Staging in SZ7 was posted only as an option for blocking the merge, not for stopping Sea Lion.

Except it utterly fails to BLOCK the merge.  The merged fleet may be toast to a US counter, but that is a different argument.  You’ve been saying it BLOCKS the merge.  It does not.  Now if you are saying it renders the merged fleet largely ineffectual, you MAY have a point on that one.

It does prevent a G2 merge… one fleet, or a nice chunk of it, is stuck in SZ6.  The farthest the Med Fleet can get in G2 is SZ7.

You can’t take out SZ6 with only AF, you need some or all of the Baltic fleet to achieve that.
(following assumes 1 FIG lost on R1 and not replaced G1, and a UK buy of AC and DST on UK1)

AF only:  97% loss
W/ 2 SUBs added:  75% loss
W/ 2 SUBs and DST:  Finally over 50%… 55% chance to win… a coin toss.  And to get THAT close with only 3 ships, most of the Luftwaffe is future reef material.
W/ the entire Baltic Fleet and Luftwaffe, it goes to 97% Axis win, with perhaps a FIG lost, and 1 DST remaining in SZ6.

And with that being the case, what are you going to link on G3?

You can get more ships to live… at the cost of AF.

@JamesG:

@ncscswitch:

Staging in SZ7 was posted only as an option for blocking the merge, not for stopping Sea Lion.

Except it utterly fails to BLOCK the merge.  The merged fleet may be toast to a US counter, but that is a different argument.  You’ve been saying it BLOCKS the merge.  It does not.  Now if you are saying it renders the merged fleet largely ineffectual, you MAY have a point on that one.

OK, let me be more specific then…
it blocks the point of a merge.  Who cares if they linked, if they are immediately dead?

Yeah, the thing is you have to use your entire airforce to unlock SZ6. You don’t have the airforce necessary as well to dislodge the 2 tran 1 dd from SZ12 in order to proceed noncombat to SZ7 with navy. Switch proposed to offload stuff into UK with the US, but I’d just use the transports to block SZ12. Germany couldn’t merge any parts of the two navies this way except a couple subs which could sail through the block.

@trihero:

Yeah, the thing is you have to use your entire airforce to unlock SZ6. You don’t have the airforce necessary as well to dislodge the 2 tran 1 dd from SZ12 in order to proceed noncombat to SZ7 with navy. Switch proposed to offload stuff into UK with the US, but I’d just use the transports to block SZ12. Germany couldn’t merge any parts of the two navies this way except a couple subs which could sail through the block.

Which leaves open a potential attack on London, which was James G’s point too.

1. SZ12 DD+2Trans vs Fighter/sub+trans fodder - 5vs5 - CAN be done
2. SZ6 AC BB 2fighters 2 trans (17/7) vs DD,2- subs, trans fodder, airforce (4-5F, Bomber) (at least 23/9)

Germany SHOULD win these and SHOULD get to merge. Hence it DOES NOT PREVENT A BLOCK.

BTW, Switch, just admit it wont block and say GJ. Dont start changing your argument to well, “it would be pointless to merge”. One, its not pointless, and 2) The debate was can that build block. It cannot. And the merged fleet will survive a USA counter.

Squirecam

First off, get the right defending UK fleet in SZ6.  You missed Russia’s sub, and eitehr a 3rd TRN, or a DST.  So add either 3 or 5 to the defense rolls, and 2 more units.

Second, you FIG count is wrong.  If you are going to send a FIG against SZ12, then you only have 4 left, not 4-5 for SZ6 (assuming a traditional R1 open)

Odds:
SZ6:
Allied Force 1 AC, 1 BB, 2 FIG, 2 TRN, 1 DST, 1 SUB
Axis Force:  2 SUB, 1 DST, 4 FIGs, 1 BOM, 3 TRN
77% Axis win.
Most likely result:  Axis 2 FIG, 1 BOM  alive.

SZ12:
Allied Force:  1 DST, 2 TRN
Axis Force:  1 BB, 1 TRN, 1 FIG (sub most likely lost killing the UK BB off Gibraltar on G1)
88% Axis win
Most likely result:  Axis 1 FIG, 1 BB survive.

So…
What is going to merge with what?

I made an error above.

1 less TRN for UK (SZ1 can;t reach by G2)

89% win for the Axis
Most likely result, 3 FIGs, 1 BOM alive.

Still no ships to merge with the BB from SZ12 though, unless you are trading FIGs for ships…

@ncscswitch:

First off, get the right defending UK fleet in SZ6.  You missed Russia’s sub, and eitehr a 3rd TRN, or a DST.  So add either 3 or 5 to the defense rolls, and 2 more units.

Second, you FIG count is wrong.  If you are going to send a FIG against SZ12, then you only have 4 left, not 4-5 for SZ6 (assuming a traditional R1 open)

Odds:
SZ6:
Allied Force 1 AC, 1 BB, 2 FIG, 2 TRN, 1 DST, 1 SUB
Axis Force:  2 SUB, 1 DST, 4 FIGs, 1 BOM, 3 TRN
77% Axis win.
Most likely result:  Axis 2 FIG, 1 BOM  alive.

SZ12:
Allied Force:  1 DST, 2 TRN
Axis Force:  1 BB, 1 TRN, 1 FIG (sub most likely lost killing the UK BB off Gibraltar on G1)
88% Axis win
Most likely result:  Axis 1 FIG, 1 BB survive.

So…
What is going to merge with what?

(sigh)

I now see why Crazy wont play you. When you lose, you change the rules.

1 - We discussed your AC/2TRANS/INF BUILD. It was THAT build I would merge against. If you build a DD and forget 2 inf, and you place USA in SZ12, then London is open to an attack. That placement is risking a G2 london attack, or a destrucion of the UK/USA fleets.

2 - The german sub is NOT lost. Gibraltar will have the BB take the hit, not the sub. But you wont send the BB in G2. It waits to noncom. It is DD+2 vs sub+trans+fighter. 5v5, 3v3.

You will merge an AC,BB and fighters with whatever trans are left behind. More than enough, since USA has 1 fighter and 1 bomber left. You have NO real USA counter to that fleet.

Also, since G1 you dont need 5 transports, the OP 8 bid is better spent on AC+2+2 rather than AC+4. The 2 subs make an attack on the UK fleet even better odds.

I’d have more respect for ya if you just said, “your right, that build wont block, but I’d risk it for a loss of G1 air”. But you keep insisting it will work when James and I both show you why it wont block.

Squirecam

OK, so you do an AC and 2 TRN.  8 IPC to land units on G1.

And we’ll go with a TRN instead of a DST, though I do believe I said that there were at least 3 blocks, and the AC/TRN/2 INF was one of them.

And the only thing you are sending to SZ6 is 2 SUBs, 1 DST, 4 FIGs (1 dead in Ukraine, 1 being used in SZ12), 1 BOM.  The AC and TRNs will NCM to SZ7 after the battle. 
Am I reading that right?
SZ6:
67% chance to win
72% to be able to sail through the Baltic TRNs and AC to SZ7
German AF lost 2 FIGs in the process.

As for London being at risk if the US goes to SZ12, I ask again, using what AF and what land units?  Throwing everything at the SZ6 fleet leaves you with no AF for a London strike.  holding back AF risks loss of the battle completely.  And that is with taking TRNs as fodder.

And UK has 4 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM, 1 FIG, 1 BOM, 1 AA… starting units, plus 2 INF from UK1 build, and the EUS FIG and BOM.  You need a pretty good force to crack that… a force you are not going to have after fighting through SZ6.  At least on G2.  If you wait until G3 to invade using your unified fleet, you won;t take London.  Not with UK getting to spend another $28+ IPC’s first…

And let me make sure I am completely understanding you here…
You spend only $8 on land forces as Germany on G1, the rest on Baltic Fleet.
The Luftwaffe is completely tied up on G1 and G2 attacking navy and Egypt, and is positioned in Western to maintain the Sea Lion threat.
You manage to merge a BB, AC, 3 TRN in SZ7, and you land 2 of your 3 surviving FIGs on it.

Do I have that correct?

Now what has Russia been doing during this endeavor?
And how much fleet and AF is the US about to hit the German fleet with?

My whole issue with this fleet link is that it takes a LOT of force to attempt, pretty much every bit of force you can get to the effort.  Anything less, and you fail.
Using that much force, leaves Germany vulnerable on the back side.
And once linked, the fleet and remaining AF is not strong enough to take London, and can’t get past the new US ships heading into the Atlantic.
All you can do is retreat back to the Med, if the US does not catch you with their US1 build first…

Wouldn’t it be cheaper to just build the AC and TRNs in the Med in the first place?

Personally, if down a fighter (due to a UKR attack and 3 tanks are exposed there) I would just atack them and not bother with a fleet.

But assume I dont and build a fleet anyway. The 8 wont do much on land, so you build all fleet.

And no, London is safe. What you have is a merged fleet to fight off UK/USA (UK has no fleet and no fighters and no India IC (imporant in my Gencon games). Now you concentrate on Japan v. Russia while Germany buys time vs allies with an eventual fleet v fleet atack (or some try a med strategy)

But I would like AC+BB+fighters+trans in SZ7.

Building AC+trans in med leaves 36 IPC in baltic fleet to die. Least they get useful this way.

Squirecam

Thank you Squire.

NOW at least the move makes a little sense, especially with the note about GenCon scoring.

Personally, I still think it is sub optimal for several reasons…
Using fleet to attack rather than defend (as it can if it just stays in the Baltic)
Spending a lot of AF on an offense where it is lost, rather than keeping it well shielded with INF and preserving it for repeated offense and defense use
Being unable to make additional landings in Africa for several turns.
Allowing Russia to break loose in central Europe, quite possibly securing Ukraine and Belo so that Eastern and Balkans are being traded instead of Ukraine/Belo

The GenCon scoring/time limited thing has a major impact on strategy.  Kreigsmarine going head to head with the Royal Navy and US Navy is a losing proposition, pretty quickly.  That initial surge plus 1 turn is the best you can probably hope for most of the time.  And in a game where you play to more traditional ending points (X VC’s, domination, surrender) it is probably not that practical of a move (unless your opponent may not realize what they are seeing).

How would this change if Germany’s down two fighters??

Well my response to this mess was to put my UK fleet in SZ6 (BB, trn) and build a AC, put 2 Figs on it and a Destroyer.
Russia moves the Sub there to.

US sacrfices its fleet with 2 trn to SZ8 of load the units in UK, put Fig and Bmb there.

us blocks spain sz with a des (you could use uk trn in canada for this but then your 1 arm less in Uk)

The reason to do this is not to prevent a consilidation but to prevent a landing from the southern navy (in our game we use tripleA ladder rules(axis bid 9) and Jlord bought a trn in med)

And Russia moves into Europe with everything she got.  (take karelia, ukraine belorussia) (germany has only 1 art and 4 inf in eastern, and 5 inf,5arm in western).

So a landing attempt on UK will be really expensive, but i think he will turn around and attack Karelia instead.)  (and will then suffer a landing in western or karelia)

Thank you Nix for posting the effects on the “backside” of that move. :-)