ABH and Crockett36, (A+100) tutor game
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I’ll post tonight late or tomorrow am
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@crockett36 Well, we have one problem. Defeat Sealion + defend home fleet.
If we divide the ftrs to max the scramble defend at SZ109, then only 3 ftrs are in UK and no other units added:
a) With his 1 transport, 1 tank + 1 inf + 4 ftrs + 5 tac + 2sb, the battle is a 75-25 winner.
b) moving 1 inf from scotland to UK 60-40 winner
c) moving both inf to UK, 50-50.
d) move all to UK, 40-60…
e) move all to UK + 4 ftrs 10-90 (good)
f) all to UK + 5 ftrs 4-96% (better)I would choose e) and use the one ftr…probably the French, and move the fleet to Iceland. 2 SS + 2 sb vs DD+BB+CA +ftr is 20-80 battle.
The move to SZ109 is possible, but invites a Luftwaffe strike. Not a terrible proposition. Max scramble of 4 ftrs (can’t do more because of Sealion above). Lose battle, but trade 4 for 5 planes and Luftwaffe is halved. Plus, the Med fleet lives. The US is in better position to help in Atlantic and UK can make moves in Middle East.
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Defend units from single sb strike in SZ76 by adding 2x DD.
I did consider blocking SZ37 with DD, but bad rolls in SZ76 and 3 transports are dead.Walk to E. Persia
Not sure what is best for BB. Stay as blocker? Unlikely that J wants to J2 DOW, but possible. Probably just move to SZ54.
Would like to reinforce Burma with max units, but J could kill all for 5ish ftrs and a probable positive TUV battle. A problem for J but worse for UK. I would like to move 3 inf from Malaya to Shan State, and to “catch” them next turn, I would put 2 inf + AAA in Burma. Could be killed, but could also kill a few planes, and negative battles early are real problems for Japan.
Threatens to build up Yunnan on T3. -
double check your sealion math. I need many of my planes to defend the transports against a possible 3 ftr scramble.
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@arthur-bomber-harris Good point. Pulling a ftr + tac to support the CA and the landing would be 45-55 battle vs 3 ftrs (draws go to the Germans) as the bare minimum pull the Germans can try. Using only 1 ftr = 8-92 loser. The loss of the 2 planes affects the above by essentially allowing 1 less ftr for each category, e.g. item e) above now only needs 3 ftrs.
If he tries to pull 3 planes from the invasion to support the landing with more than a coin flip, then just better for us.
Can now put 2 ftrs in Scotland for 5 ftr scramble. More damage to Luftwaffe if they attack.
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I’ll fix Burma. Med looks so good. Don’t think I need planes from India.
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Mechs in London? Or can we go s Africa?
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@crockett36 run the math and see if you need those extra units in London if Germany built all transports on G2 and tried a sealion on G3.
You don’t have to be guaranteed to win the battle, but need to make me lose enough planes that Russia + USA can invade W Europe.
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@crockett36 be careful with Burma as I have 21 planes and 4 ground units that can reach there. I would prefer not doing a J2 DoW but a big stack of units there would be too tempting as India would fall on J3.
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@crockett36 I don’t see it likely that I would want to do a G3 Sealion attack as not only do I have to defeat the London defenders but also have to make sure I have adequate forces to defeat the UK Navy guarding SZ110. I haven’t done the math, but the large bid in Europe makes the numbers heavily skewed against the attack. The OOB game is already unfavorable against Sealion.
What is the purpose of the destroyer in SZ112? It could be killed by the Germans at minimal loss.
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@Arthur-Bomber-Harris I would agree that G3 Sealion is unlikely. But I would suggest defending against a G2 Sealion that could occur if not prepared. Germany would hold for at least 1 round since no other ground units could come UK2. Cost a few planes and a ship or two. Still might not be worth it.
But with minimal effort, UK will be prepared for any G3 attack.
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@surfer currently 4% chance of a successful G2 sealion with the 3 fighters stationed in London. With one fewer Allied fighters, still only a 20% odds in my favor.
I would only be tempted for the attack if only 1 allied fighter remained in London, and the destroyer in SZ112 moved somewhere else.
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Yeah I said I was going to fix Burma. I think one must be comfortable with 80/20 battles, don’t you think?
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@crockett36 I often look at TUV swing. Right now Burma would be a +25 PU swing for the Axis if I attacked which is just too tempting. It also leaves India wide open for capture on J3 which is the even bigger issue.
I rarely will do a battle with only a 20% chance of winning unless I am badly losing and need a desperation attack.
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These orders go into effect at 3pm unless there are objections. I didn’t hear anything about the destroyer’s ability to prevent G2 sealion. So I moved it. I would invite such a move, thinking even a success would be a TUV disaster. Not to mention a robust fleet and figs in Scotland. But I could be wrong.
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@crockett36 The DD wouldn’t prevent because the Italians could sink it.
Putting the 1 mech in UK is plenty of defense.
Why place the transport at SZ88? Can’t do anything. Might die in SZ109, but if not, will be helpful to goto SZ106 next turn rather than 2 turns.I’m fine with other moves.
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@surfer incentivizes 109. Better tuv for Germany. I don’t want them to attack.
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@surfer said in ABH and Crockett36, (A+100) tutor game:
@crockett36 The DD wouldn’t prevent because the Italians could sink it.
Putting the 1 mech in UK is plenty of defense.
Why place the transport at SZ88? Can’t do anything. Might die in SZ109, but if not, will be helpful to goto SZ106 next turn rather than 2 turns.I’m fine with other moves.
The Italians have a lot to do.
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