Is a bid system necessary for the revised edition?

We are talking about long term averages in terms of balance.

Yes, there ARE going to be those games where Yukon Jack withstands the Jap landings in WCan.  There will be that R1 attack on West Russia that FAILS completely.

When you are talking about game balance, you are talking about tens of thousands of games played, and the average outcome of those games.

And, from that perspective, a bid of 6-9 is what brings the averages to approximately 50/50.

Without a bid… play 10,000 games not 1.  And you will end up with about 6,000 Allied wins and 4,000 Axis wins.

I don’t believe 10,000 games were played prior to someone saying a “bid” was needed. :)

You would have to play 10,000 “non-bid” games and have a ratio of 60/40 before you could claim a bid was needed.

Kinda why I wish AAA had gone 2 games, no bid. I would have loved to see those stats after a few 1000 games.

Since so many variables of an 8 bid can be made, its hard to say whether an “8” bid is truly equal.

BTW, you play FTF tournaments at all? Gencon is approaching fast…

Squirecam

Alas no.

I would if there were any very nearby, but none in my neck of the woods (closest I know of is 7 hours away)

BTW, I took these stats from the AAA ladder. While overall the axis has won 51% of the games, look at these stats from the ladder. Most players have better AXIS win % than allied. Even among the lowest rank players. That would be some indication that a bid of 8 could be too high…

146. Marinero
Sergeant
720

 47.6 % (10 of 21)

 66.7 % (6 of 9)

 33.3 % (4 of 12)
 (7 votes)

149. FearlessMidget
Sergeant
665

 33.3 % (5 of 15)

 37.5 % (3 of 8)

 28.6 % (2 of 7)
 (3 votes)

150. madmatg
Sergeant
630

 27.3 % (3 of 11)

 33.3 % (2 of 6)

 20 % (1 of 5)
 (4 votes)

151. bassboot
Sergeant
620

 12.5 % (2 of 16)

 16.7 % (1 of 6)

 10 % (1 of 10)
 (5 votes)

152. ash
Sergeant
572

 14.3 % (1 of 7)

 33.3 % (1 of 3)

 0 % (0 of 4)
 (1 votes)

154. ARMissel
Sergeant
542

 16.7 % (1 of 6)

 33.3 % (1 of 3)

 0 % (0 of 3)
 (2 votes)

155. aricthered

10. yavol
General
1860

 72.7 % (16 of 22)

 90 % (9 of 10)

 58.3 % (7 of 12)

13. X-101
General
1830

 67.9 % (19 of 28)

 73.3 % (11 of 15)

 61.5 % (8 of 13)
 (8 votes)

14. Blue Max21
General
1810

 52.2 % (47 of 90)

 52.3 % (23 of 44)

 52.2 % (24 of 46)
 (26 votes)

15. crazy Ivan
General
1810

 58.3 % (42 of 72)

 61.1 % (22 of 36)

 55.6 % (20 of 36)
 (16 votes)

16. Garibaldi
Colonel
1721

 69.4 % (25 of 36)

 76.2 % (16 of 21)

 60 % (9 of 15)
 (12 votes)

17. Lhokken
Colonel
1652

 71.4 % (10 of 14)

 83.3 % (5 of 6)

 62.5 % (5 of 8)
 (3 votes)

18. Blasherke
Colonel
1643

 66.3 % (53 of 80)

 61.9 % (26 of 42)

 71.1 % (27 of 38)
 (21 votes)

19. Atreides
Colonel
1637

 66.7 % (14 of 21)

 63.6 % (7 of 11)

 70 % (7 of 10)
 (7 votes)

20. Tobi Wan Tongo
Colonel
1636

 59.3 % (16 of 27)

 73.3 % (11 of 15)

 41.7 % (5 of 12)
 (7 votes)

21. owein77
Colonel
1631

 68.8 % (11 of 16)

 62.5 % (5 of 8)

 75 % (6 of 8)
 (3 votes)

22. Darquan
Colonel
1572

 88.9 % (8 of 9)

 75 % (3 of 4)

 100 % (5 of 5)
 (1 votes)

23. Clausewitz
Colonel
1562

 62.5 % (15 of 24)

 66.7 % (8 of 12)

 58.3 % (7 of 12)
 (7 votes)

24. Puccy
Colonel
1562

 58.3 % (14 of 24)

 46.2 % (6 of 13)

 72.7 % (8 of 11)
 (10 votes)

25. Peetee1138
Colonel
1536

 54.3 % (25 of 46)

 56.5 % (13 of 23)

 52.2 % (12 of 23)
 (11 votes)

26. Bismark
Major
1490

 83.3 % (10 of 12)

 83.3 % (5 of 6)

 83.3 % (5 of 6)
 (2 votes)

27. Straha
Major
1488

 59.1 % (13 of 22)

 72.7 % (8 of 11)

 45.5 % (5 of 11)
 (6 votes)

28. Grizzly Bear
Major
1474

 58.7 % (27 of 46)

 70.8 % (17 of 24)

 45.5 % (10 of 22)
 (12 votes)

29. GSH34
Major
1465

 80 % (12 of 15)

 85.7 % (6 of 7)

 75 % (6 of 8)
 (5 votes)

30. fastfred
Major
1446

 64.3 % (9 of 14)

 57.1 % (4 of 7)

 71.4 % (5 of 7)
 (3 votes)

31. Verdugo
Major
1440

 66.7 % (12 of 18)

 66.7 % (6 of 9)

 66.7 % (6 of 9)
 (4 votes)

32. androcks
Major
1426

 87.5 % (7 of 8)

 100 % (4 of 4)

 75 % (3 of 4)
 (3 votes)

33. Darth Crane
Major
1407

 47.8 % (11 of 23)

 50 % (6 of 12)

 45.5 % (5 of 11)
 (7 votes)

34. Franco72
Major
1366

 75 % (6 of 8)

 80 % (4 of 5)

 66.7 % (2 of 3)

Of the top 10, only ONE player has an axis win% under 50. Of the rest, the lowest is 64 % (1 guy). The rest are 70% or higher. Again, some evidence that axis +8 might be too much.

1. Serghis Khan
Field Marshall
2832

84.3 % (43 of 51)

80.8 % (21 of 26)

88 % (22 of 25)
  (12 votes)

2. Crimsontide
Field Marshall
2613

74.1 % (20 of 27)

71.4 % (10 of 14)

76.9 % (10 of 13)
  (6 votes)

3. Incy
Field Marshall
2472

93.3 % (28 of 30)

85.7 % (12 of 14)

100 % (16 of 16)
  (9 votes)

4. Kublai Khan
Field Marshall
2341

70.8 % (34 of 48)

71.4 % (15 of 21)

70.4 % (19 of 27)
  (11 votes)

5. enoch101
Field Marshall
2001

82.4 % (28 of 34)

76.5 % (13 of 17)

88.2 % (15 of 17)
  (8 votes)

6. Dartman
General
1999

71.4 % (25 of 35)

64.7 % (11 of 17)

77.8 % (14 of 18)
  (8 votes)

7. TexasAggie
General
1980

55.9 % (19 of 34)

47.1 % (8 of 17)

64.7 % (11 of 17)
  (7 votes)

8. jeffouner
General
1941

86.4 % (19 of 22)

80 % (8 of 10)

91.7 % (11 of 12)
  (5 votes)

9. bayder
General
1918

83.3 % (20 of 24)

84.6 % (11 of 13)

81.8 % (9 of 11)
  (4 votes)

10. yavol
General
1860

72.7 % (16 of 22)

90 % (9 of 10)

58.3 % (7 of 12)

I am missing header information to read what is what.

Also, remember that the BEST players tend to END UP with the Axis more due to lower bids.  Thus they become better at playing the Axis than the Allies
I am a good example of that…
10 Axis games, 8 wins
5 Allied games, 3 wins

80% win Axis
60% win Allies

@ncscswitch:

I am missing header information to read what is what.

Also, remember that the BEST players tend to END UP with the Axis more due to lower bids.  Thus they become better at playing the Axis than the Allies
I am a good example of that…
10 Axis games, 8 wins
5 Allied games, 3 wins

80% win Axis
60% win Allies

1st % is overall, 2nd is axis and 3rd is allied.

But, under AAA, players must play twice. 1 axis, 1 allied. Bid is 8 in both games.

So your stat example doesnt apply.

Squirecam

OK…

Your own site stats show a 51/49 overall split.  Pretty darn balanced.
Also, averages for folks with win percentages over 50% are going to be skewed, since they more than likely will win no matter which side they play.

Here is a prior discussion that places the Axis bid even HIGHER (9) in order to be balanced.

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=6629.0

I read that section. Found a very interesting quote….  :)

quote author=ncscswitch link=topic=6629.msg102217#msg102217 date=1147216381]
Carrying over IPC remainign from the bid to be used on Turn 1 is essential to pairing down the bid.

Otherwise, you end up with low bids all being in increments of 3 (for the most part)

Allowing for IPC carry over, I’d be willing to take a bid of $1 against most opponents…

Since you accept a bid of ONE, I’d say your whole argument saying 6 is needed to balance the game was just fluff. :)  You are basically willing to play straight up. Which is what I said earlier, a bidder means “I can beat anyone with +1)”

Notice the rest of that quote…

Start with MOST oponents.  Meaning against folks who are not as skilled (sorry, int he past 9 months I ahve become a VERY skilled player).

I also specified that agaisnt the best players (players equal to my skill level or better) that I would want a higher bid to keep it even.

You cannot use me vs. your average player as an example because you are dealing with unequal skill sets.  And the whole question of balance hinges on equal or comparable skill sets.

If you feel confident enough to beat most people at ONE, I doubt you need 9 to beat the “best”.

Perhaps you beat the best at 6-9 because 6-9 is too much. :)

Squirecam

But alas, I lost to one of the best at 7 just my last game.

I still don’t understand your argument, Squirecam. If you’re saying if a bid is NEEDED, then no game REQUIRES a bid. Not even classic does if there is a 25% or even 1% chance for the Axis to win, because your argument is that there exists the possibility that the Axis will win.

If this is not what you’re saying, if you actually want a 50% chance to win, then a bid helps this in the long run. Your argument that luck cancels out the bid is a bogus argument, because you only look at situations in which luck negates the bid, you’re not looking at the average when things come out a little bit better which ups the 40% to closer to 50%. Over many games a bid HAS to affect the game somehow. It is not nonexistent and therefore unnecessary like you’re making it out to be.

If adding units is irrelevant, then removing them should be also.

Instead of adding 6-9 IPC’s to the Axis, let’s just delete that many from the Allies…
Remove 1 ARM, 1 INF from Egypt.

There.  According to Squire’s argument, it won’t matter because luck will cancel out such a minor change.

6-9 IPC most certainly changes the odds.

And to be honest, that is one of the best things about Revised…
You don’t have to do the huge bid, or the choreographed moves that have been worked out over 20 years and the “one true and only way” to play A&A like you do in Classic.

Small bid, just to even out the histroical averages over the past few years, but with a variety of placement possibilities (instead of pre-set PE, PAfr, or the rare Pasia, which is an even LARGER bid) and you get a great game, lots of variability, and lots of enjoyment.

In fact, I point to my current game with Darth… probably one of the top 5-10 Classic players in the world, and THE best I have ever seen; who has transfered his game play to Revised and now is enjoying the game (I think) in ways that it has been years since he was able to enjoy and explore.

And both of us are having a ball.  Winning an losing is not the point in this one.  We are playing for the pleasure of it.
with a 7 bid, 10 turns in, the Axis dominates the land, the Allies the Seas and Skies…  and barring catrastophy by one of us, no end in sight…

And THAT my friends is a BALANCED game :-)

@squirecam:

Of the top 10, only ONE player has an axis win% under 50. Of the rest, the lowest is 64 % (1 guy). The rest are 70% or higher. Again, some evidence that axis +8 might be too much.

Look at the stats again, at http://tripleawarclub.org/ladder/standings.php

Of the top 10 players, 7 of them have a higher winning percentage as the Allies than as the Axis.  Yes, their Axis winning percentage is high, but their Allied winning percentage is even higher.  This implies that at the highest level of play, that a 9 bid to the Axis (which is what all these games used) might be a little too LOW.

TY James, I knew someone with more experience with those numbers would ahve the answer :-)

But time tends to average out those rolls.

In a short game, sure one dice frack can be the deciding factor.  over 15 turns, both sides tend to get several fracks.