L20 AndrewAAGamer (X) vs oysteilo (A+58) OOB

@AndrewAAGamer said in L20 AndrewAAGamer (X) vs oysteilo (A+58) OOB:

@ksmckay said in L20 AndrewAAGamer (X) vs oysteilo (A+58) OOB:

redo the whole round by rules.

Wait I just caught this. Are you saying just because I didn’t wait in one battle that my Opponent could have me reroll the entire Combat Phase again? So, as an example, I have 6 battles and in one I make an assumption and continue and every else I have great dice so my Opponent can ask me to reroll all the battles? If so that means you should never make an assumption as that is mighty dang powerful.

yeah thats what the rules say. I have never seen anyone request the entire round be rerolled but I suppose it would be within the rules. thats what the bolded part in 8a says.

Stiff penalty for assumption, moderator might be able to rule with some discretion in some extreme example but still. Best to establish some general behavior at beginning of games

If you accept my selection in 125 its cool! I realize now that it could make a difference. And i will be more carefull in the future with respect to selection.

My goal waa to clear the zone and with that in mind i felt i gave you the best option!

@oysteilo yeah, i think this was definitely one that is 50/50 or maybe 40/60. you didnt come in with overwhelming force by any means and so saving the sub or at least forcing an air casualty is a definite possibility. Probably not likely but far from obvious. But i hate waiting too…

I have 3 units at combined power of 9 vs 2 units at 4. It does not qualify as “overhaling”, but describing it as 50:50 isnt exactly right either…

With that said, i should have asked for selection. I understand that his goal is to deny the objective. And his best option of doing that is to keep the sub.

After a 1:1 result in round 1 i guess heis 1/24 to survive with the sub and 1/72 to survive with the cruiser.

Both are fairly bad odds, but he has the right to choose for himself.

I am happy to roll a one for the sub and s 2 for the destroyer and a 4 for the bomber.

Thats up to Andrew

good chance you get 1 hit and a decent chance he gets 1 hit. if he loses the cruiser first, then you would have to lose an air unit. or if he gets lucky and his sub happens to hit (1/6) you have to lose the dd. and if you decide to save your dd then its sitting in 125 for him to take out next turn.

your numbers make no sense.

after seeing that you only got one hit, he as at minimum a 16% chance of having a unit survive at the end of the battle if he loses the cruiser first. if he loses the sub first, the odds go down to ~3%. So losing the cruiser first is 5 times more likely to result in units at the end of the battle.

So…… Just to make the statistics clear (at least from my perspective. I can be wrong of course, but don’t think I am). So, we assume both sides get one hit. Andrew hits with the cruiser so I can select any unit as a casualty. My goal is to clear the zone for the Soviet objective. In my book there are two options:

Option 1. Cruiser is down, and I must lose the fighter.

In this case the sub must hit, and the destroyer and the bomber must miss. Any other result and the Soviet objective is cleared. The odds for this are 1/6 x 2/3 x 1/3 = 1/27 or about 3,7%. TUV for attacker is -6

Option 2. Sub is down and I lose the destroyer.

In this case there will be two rounds of combat if you want to deny the Soviet objective. It means the cruiser must kill the fighter and the bomber AND remain itself. The odds here are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/3 = 1/12 for round 1 and in addition it is 1/2 x 1/3 = 1/6 in round 2. In total this is 1/12 x 1/6 = 1/72 or 1,4 %. TUV for attacker is – 24

If you want to have a shot at denying the Soviet objective option 1 is about 2.5 times better than option 2, but this is still an unlikely result. If you want to cause maximum damage on defense option 2 is the way to go as it is 4 times better. I did not think this through good enough while doing the battle and I ask for apology for that. I think Andrew has accepted the result and I thank him for pointing this out. I should have asked for selection here, no doubt!

As I am the attacker, I can dictate the terms above and I don’t understand how @ksmckay estimates that losing the cruiser is 5 times better in this situation.

Its kind of interesting that such a simple battle can create this discussion. Good contributions from Andrew and ksmckay!

TripleA Turn Summary: French round 3

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 4.0.0

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - ANZAC
        ANZAC buy 2 submarines and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - ANZAC
        1 destroyer moved from 54 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
        1 transport moved from 41 Sea Zone to 60 Sea Zone

    Combat - ANZAC
        Battle in 44 Sea Zone
            ANZAC attack with 1 destroyer
            Japanese defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the Japanese lost in 44 Sea Zone
            ANZAC win, taking 44 Sea Zone from Neutral with 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 transport

    Non Combat Move - ANZAC
        1 submarine moved from 63 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser moved from 26 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Burma to Yunnan
        2 fighters moved from India to Yunnan
        2 infantry moved from Iraq to Northwest Persia

    Place Units - ANZAC
        2 submarines and 1 transport placed in 62 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - ANZAC
        ANZAC collect 10 PUs; end with 10 PUs
        Trigger ANZAC 1 Control Original And Malaya: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 15 PUs

    Combat Move - French

    Non Combat Move - French
        1 destroyer moved from 76 Sea Zone to 79 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from French Equatorial Africa to Anglo Egyptian Sudan
        1 infantry moved from Iraq to Syria
        1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to Syria
        3 infantry moved from Algeria to Tunisia

    Turn Complete - French

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

@oysteilo you are missing something or else talking about something completely irrelevant.

The decision point (your decision to select the sub vs cruiser) comes before seeing the defensive dice. So the discussion regarding the cruiser hit and subsequent odds is meaningless.

The real discussion is as the defender I see that you got one hit. So if I choose the cruiser as casualty, then I get to roll defensive dice and I have a 1/6 chance that my sub hits and you have to lose the dd since you cant take air as casualty for a sub hit and so the battle is over. Russian objective will be denied for at least 2 turns.

16% is about 5 times more than the 3% or 2% result you are debating.

Its at least 16% because even if the sub misses there are possible outcomes that you go through that also provide a way out.

All your discussions are based on knowing that the sub misses and cruiser hits which happens after the casualty choice and so has nothing to do with the discussion.

Kyle

all right. Maybe we talk about different situations, I dont know.

Initially I roll 3 dice and get one hit. Then I need to make a selection. Lets now assume the cruiser is removed.

Defender fire sub, zero hits and the “dead” cruiser fire and gets a hit. Now lets assume the british fighter is removed.

In this situation there is a defending german sub left vs an attacking british destroyer and a bomber. Are you saying, in this situation if the german sub hits, the british destroyer and bomber dont get to fire? That is how I read your post

@oysteilo

Defender fire sub, zero hits and the “dead” cruiser fire and gets a hit. Now lets assume the british fighter is removed.

That happens after you made the casualty selection. We are talking about the casualty selection process.

Unless you know what the dice are going to be before they are rolled - you don’t, then you cant talk about the defender dice.

The point is -

As defender I see that attacker got one hit. What casualty choice is best.
If I pick the cruiser, then I have a 16% chance of keeping the sub and surviving the battle, and denying the russian NO for two more turns.

If I pick the sub, then I have <3% chance of having any units survive.

You keep saying

Defender fire sub, zero hits and the “dead” cruiser fire and gets a hit. Now lets assume the british fighter is removed.

But that is a completely different situation then what we are talking about. At that point there is no decision to be made and no discussion.

sorry for my slow behaviour… I get it now. At the point where I rolled one hit out of 3, the point is, the defender COULD score two hits. We just dont know.

Fair point. Again, I am sorry

@oysteilo
No need to apologize.

Sorry for me continuing to drag this out. I promise this will be my last post on the subject.

But it isnt a matter of two hits. When the defender rolls all he needs is the 16% chance that the sub hits for him to effectively win the battle. The cruiser doesnt matter - Two hits would just be icing on the cake, but the result would be no different. One hit by the sub and the battle is over. While 16% odds arent great, they are far better than the 3% odds the defender started with. But once you only rolled one offensive hit, he has a way out that allows for a 16% chance at a pretty decent result.

None of this to say that there arent good reasons to select the sub as casualty first. But there is a very legitimate and reasonable argument for selecting the cruiser first, just depends on your goals.

Sub first definitely provides the best option at dealing damage to the british. But cruiser first, is the best chance at direct harm to the russians. Considering Russia is clearly priority number one for the axis and defending russia is priority number one for the allies, its closer to a toss up then it might seem.

Cool. I rest my case!

TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 4

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 4.0.0

Game History

Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 10 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        7 infantry moved from Sakha to Siberia

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in Siberia
            Russians attack with 7 infantry
            Japanese defend with 1 infantry
                Russians roll dice for 7 infantry in Siberia, round 2 : 3/7 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Siberia, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Siberia
            Russians win, taking Siberia from Japanese with 7 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        1 aaGun moved from Sakha to Siberia
        1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from Archangel to Vologda
        1 infantry moved from Smolensk to Archangel
        2 artilleries moved from Smolensk to Vologda
        10 infantry moved from Russia to Vologda
        1 aaGun, 3 artilleries, 1 fighter, 25 infantry, 2 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Smolensk to Russia
        1 aaGun moved from Bryansk to Rostov
        1 aaGun, 2 artilleries and 7 infantry moved from Bryansk to Russia
        4 infantry moved from Timguska to Novosibirsk
        1 aaGun and 5 infantry moved from Yenisey to Timguska
        2 infantry moved from Timguska to Novosibirsk
        1 fighter moved from Yunnan to Novosibirsk
        1 mech_infantry moved from Samara to Russia
        2 infantry moved from Volgograd to Samara

    Place Units - Russians
        10 infantry placed in Russia
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Russians from Samara: 2 infantry
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Russians to Rostov: 2 infantry
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Russians from Vologda: 1 infantry
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Russians to Samara: 1 infantry
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 26 PUs; end with 28 PUs
        Trigger Russians 1 Lend Lease: Russians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 33 PUs
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Russians from Russia: 3 mech_infantrys
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Russians to Samara: 3 mech_infantrys
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Russians from Novosibirsk: 1 fighter
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Russians to Kazakhstan: 1 fighter
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Japanese regular : -0,33
Russians regular : 1,83

Savegame

sorry for the non combat edits