L20 PTV-first game! Surfer(L) vs. AndrewAAGamer(X)

TripleA Turn Summary: Italians round 6

TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory, version: 1.0

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - Italians
        Italians buy 1 fighter and 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Italians
        2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Southern Italy to 100 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from Southern Italy to 100 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to 101 Sea Zone

    Combat - Italians
        Battle in 101 Sea Zone
            Italians attack with 1 fighter
            Americans defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the Americans lost in 101 Sea Zone
            Italians win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for Americans: 1 transport
        Battle in 100 Sea Zone
            Italians attack with 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers
            Americans defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the Americans lost in 100 Sea Zone
            Italians win with 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for Americans: 1 transport

    Non Combat Move - Italians
        2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from 100 Sea Zone to Libya
        1 armour, 2 artilleries, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Tunisia to Libya
        1 fighter moved from 101 Sea Zone to Libya
        1 bomber moved from 100 Sea Zone to Southern Italy

    Place Units - Italians
        1 fighter and 2 infantry placed in Southern Italy

    Turn Complete - Italians
        Italians collect 15 PUs; end with 16 PUs
        Objective Italians 1 Control The Mediterranean: Italians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 21 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 7

TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory, version: 1.0

Game History

Round: 7

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 4 artilleries, 2 fighters, 11 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 transport moved from 115 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Holland Belgium to 113 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Normandy Bordeaux to 113 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 113 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 93 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
        2 bombers moved from Southern Italy to Northern Caucasus
        1 infantry moved from Rostov to Northern Caucasus
        1 armour moved from Rostov to Tambov
              Germans take Tambov from Russians
        1 armour moved from Tambov to Rostov

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Gibraltar
        Battle in Northern Caucasus
            Germans attack with 2 bombers and 1 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 2 bombers and 1 infantry in Northern Caucasus, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Northern Caucasus, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Northern Caucasus
            Germans win, taking Gibraltar from British, taking Northern Caucasus from Russians with 2 bombers and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        1 aaGun, 2 armour, 6 artilleries and 23 infantry moved from Novgorod to Northern Belarus
        1 aaGun moved from Southern Belarus to Northern Belarus
        1 armour moved from Poland to Northern Belarus
        1 armour moved from Eastern Poland to Ukraine
        1 armour, 3 artilleries and 1 mech_infantry moved from Ukraine to Rostov
        2 bombers moved from Northern Caucasus to Ukraine
        3 mech_infantrys moved from Southern Belarus to Northern Belarus
        3 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from Leningrad to Northern Belarus
        4 transports moved from 118 Sea Zone to 117 Sea Zone
        3 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from Germany to 117 Sea Zone
        3 artilleries, 5 infantry and 4 transports moved from 117 Sea Zone to 118 Sea Zone
        3 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from 118 Sea Zone to Leningrad
        1 infantry moved from France to Holland Belgium
        2 carriers, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine moved from 112 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Western Germany to 93 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Southern Italy to 93 Sea Zone
        3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from Southern Italy to Libya
        2 tactical_bombers moved from Southern Italy to Rostov
        3 infantry moved from Rostov to Ukraine
        1 infantry moved from Rostov to Ukraine
        1 submarine moved from 112 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone
        1 artillery moved from France to Western Germany
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Germany to Poland

    Place Units - Germans
        1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Ukraine
        3 artilleries and 5 infantry placed in Germany
        3 infantry placed in France
        2 fighters and 1 infantry placed in Western Germany
        1 transport placed in 115 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 58 PUs; end with 58 PUs
        Trigger Germans 7 Atlantic Wall: Germans met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 61 PUs
        Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 66 PUs
        Objective Germans 2 Control Stalingrad Or Leningrad Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 71 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : 0.83
Russians : -0.33

Savegame

Sorry about the extra roll. Game froze after combat and after reopening and editing I forgot to remove the transport.

TripleA Turn Summary: Japanese round 7

TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory, version: 1.0

Game History

Round: 7

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 1 artillery, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 10 infantry, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Chinese from Northern Sinkiang: 17 infantry
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from Malaya: 2 infantry
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        2 infantry and 2 marines moved from Davao to 36 Sea Zone
        1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Java to 43 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 43 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone
        2 battleships, 8 carriers, 3 cruisers, 4 destroyers, 9 fighters, 2 marines, 4 submarines and 6 tactical_bombers moved from 36 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone
        9 fighters, 4 infantry, 2 marines and 6 tactical_bombers moved from 38 Sea Zone to Malaya
        1 armour, 3 artilleries, 2 bombers, 3 fighters, 9 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 4 tactical_bombers moved from Eastern Sinkiang to Northern Sinkiang
              Japanese take Northern Sinkiang from Chinese
        1 infantry moved from Kansu to Northern Sinkiang

    Combat - Japanese
        Battle in 38 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 2 battleships, 8 carriers, 3 cruisers, 4 destroyers, 4 submarines and 2 transports
            Americans defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the Americans lost in 38 Sea Zone
                Japanese roll dice for 4 submarines in 38 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
            Japanese win, taking 38 Sea Zone from Neutral with 2 battleships, 8 carriers, 3 cruisers, 4 destroyers, 4 submarines and 2 transports remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for Americans: 1 transport
        Battle in Malaya

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Japanese from Malaya: 1 infantry
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Japanese from Northern Sinkiang: 10 infantry
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        3 artilleries, 11 infantry and 1 marine moved from Yunnan to French Indo China
        1 infantry moved from Kweichow to Yunnan
        1 infantry moved from Hunan to Kweichow
        1 infantry moved from Tsinghai to Eastern Sinkiang
        1 infantry moved from Inner Mongolia to Kansu
        1 infantry moved from Shansi to Inner Mongolia
        1 infantry moved from Honan to Tsinghai
        1 infantry moved from Anhwe to Shansi
        1 infantry moved from Hopei to Honan
        1 infantry moved from Kiangsi to Hopei
        1 infantry moved from Kiangsi to Hunan
        1 infantry moved from Kiangsu to Anhwe
        1 infantry moved from Kiangsu to Kiangsi
        3 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers moved from Northern Sinkiang to Hopei
        9 fighters and 6 tactical_bombers moved from Malaya to 38 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Japan to 7 Sea Zone
        1 carrier and 2 fighters moved from 7 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 7 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Japan to 38 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Northern Manchuria to Korea
        2 bombers moved from Northern Sinkiang to Hunan

    Place Units - Japanese
        1 destroyer and 1 submarine placed in 37 Sea Zone
        1 artillery placed in French Indo China
        3 infantry placed in Kiangsu
        1 fighter, 7 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber placed in Japan
        1 submarine placed in 7 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - Japanese
        Japanese collect 65 PUs; end with 65 PUs
        Objective Japanese 6 Home Islands: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 68 PUs
        Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 73 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Japanese : -0.33

Savegame

Man! The newest revision adds a mechanized infantry for Germany and removes an infantry for Britain. I should of been the Allies first!

They added the mechanized infantry so they can do Normandy and France on the same Turn as they like to do the Vichy Rule. Not sure why they removed an infantry from UK. I think that UK is a tiny bit weak now against Sealion.

@AndrewAAGamer hey dudes. We added the Austria mech and removed the British inf (restoring the original Global set up for UK) because it appeared, based on play testing, that Germany needed a slight buff. Uk should be alright against Sea Lion if it makes a reasonable UK1 buy. If Germany still presses ahead with Sea Lion, even with a reasonable uk buy, It will have a real problem with Russia.

@regularkid

What would be a “reasonable” UK buy? Does this include doing Taranto and flying off 2 fighters and the bomber?

I show even with a 100% defensive 9 infantry buy that Germany has a G3 attack of about 82% if UK goes for Taranto. That seems pretty high to me with a 100% defensive build.

@AndrewAAGamer, you’re definitely asking the right questions.

A reasonable buy depends on what Germany buys on round 1 (fleet, land, mixed, etc.), and the results of the G1 naval battles. But, in my personal opinion, you can typically go with one of three things:

1. 6 inf, 1 fighter (plus Taranto)
2. 9 inf (plus Taranto)
3. 1 airbase, 4 inf (sz 92 stack + kill straggling German battleship) - especially good if there is a J1Dow.

82% is a disaster waiting to happen for Germany. If it goes exceptionally well, maybe Germany is still in the game. If it goes average or worse, it is gg in Europe.

@AndrewAAGamer I think that Russia is so powerful in PTV, if Germany wants to invest into sea lion when UK goes 100% defensive, Russia will be a huge threat to Germany if proper pressure is applied by the US and remaining UK stuff.

I think sea lion is only viable when the UK doesn’t properly defend allowing Germany to take it UK cheaply…

@regularkid, @WindowWasher

Two points:
#1 – I am not sure why there is a concern about Russia. One of the things I like about this PtV map, versus the OOB map, is Moscow is further away from German territory which means the ability for Germany to steamroll Moscow is pretty much removed. However, the counter to that is Russia is further from Germany too if Germany decides to go for Sealion.

Accounting for two things a) Germany does a 50% Naval build on G1 to set the groundwork for Sealion and b) removing ground losses for France/Yugoslavia and ground units targeted for Sealion there are still 36 German ground units within 2 spaces of the Russian border. At the end of R1 there are also 36 Russian ground units within 2 spaces of the German border. The bulk of the Russian units coming from Moscow are 5 Turns away from the border. Germany, starting on Turn 3, the same Turn they take London, are dropping in up to 20 units a Turn via Germany and Western Germany. Russia has at most 16 and 10 of those are much farther away. Therefore, Germany should easily be able to hold the Russians at the border as long as they have a money advantage. This does not take into consideration the discrepancy between German air power over Russian air power.

Assuming Germany has all of their original territory plus Finland, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, France, Normandy, Southern France, London and Scotland; Germany is collecting $65 without a single Russian territory under German control. That allows them to build up to 60 slow moving ground units no problem. Russia with all of its original territory would be collecting $55 which would make it difficult to build 16 units unless all but 2-3 were slow movers. How does that allow Russia to put pressure on Germany? Add in the German mobile navy force being able to strike at Leningrad and it seems pretty certain to me that Germany is the one that would be able to grab more money by at a minimum trading Russian territory. This does not include anything Italy may bring to the table which should be plenty considering with no UK the Med will fall into Italian hands.

#2 – It is fairly obvious that this game was built to be a long-term money game. Which I appreciate and enjoy very much. One concern with any long-term money game is the possibility of a scripted Rush ending that long-term money game. The example I will give you is the original Pacific game. That was a Victory Points based game to win however there was also a “take a capital” component of victory. The VP game was exciting, strategic, even and fun between two players of comparable skill level. However, the take a capital part of the game ended up being detrimental to the game as a far less skilled player could use a “scripted” plan to try an India Crush and take India. And frankly there was almost nothing the Allied player could do about it. A highly skilled player may be able to take the scripted India Crush down from 60-65% to hopefully 45-50% but the less skilled player could still win a good portion of the time even when in a VP game they would never win. Over time to overcome that India Crush there was $15 added to the India money so they could place 5 more infantry down in defense to lower that India Crush possible chance of success into the teens or lower.

So, when you say “It is only an 82% chance of taking London” I go WHAT? So, any person, fresh off the boat, could have an 82% chance of taking London and very likely winning! That does not seem like a good plan to me if you want to have a long-term strategy game.

@surfer @AndrewAAGamer @regularkid
Yes and No… With proper US pressure applied, I doubt Germany and Italy can afford to do all of this at once…

• Defend London from US retake
• Hold off the Russians who are deploying large and meaningful amounts of troops in mainland Europe
• Hold off American landings in Norway, Spain, Normandy, Greece, Italy.

I do not think that the Germans and Italians can effectively defend all of that meaning the US is likely to get a foothold somewhere to deploy meaningful IPCs and along with the Russians they could seriously slow or contain the German offensive.

The main question is… does sea lion have a higher or lower than average win rate between all levels of players. An 82% success rate for sea lion doesn’t mean that its an 82% win chance. We need to figure out what the win rate of sea lion is on PtV, then make changes accordingly to make the win rate more or less even, or a desirable percentage.

A J1 DOW and Sea lion with 82% rates could be nasty, putting a lot of pressure on the US, maybe look into win rates of those two combined

I really enjoyed reading your thoughtful analysis, Andrew and Window.

A couple of things: to your first point, Moscow is actually no further from Germany in PTV than it is G40. In fact all three of the Russia’s factories that are most frequently used in G40 (Ukraine, Novgorod, and Moscow) are the same exact distance from Germany in PTV. It only “seems” further from Germany’s perspective, because if Germany goes directly to Moscow, it has a longer path to take to Leningrand.

The sealion scenario was playtested a couple of times (including with a defensive buy by UK). Initially we added an infantry to the UK to counter the Germany buffs included in the game–namely:

1. Transports cost only 6 now (whereas in G40, 70 PUs got you seven transports. Now they get you 10 transports and two marines)

2. Atlantic Wall NO = +3 PUs

3. Balkans/Crete NO = now worth +3 PUs (instead of +2 PUs)

4. We added one additional mech and one additional infantry to Germany’s starting units.

Notably, these buffs are already countered, somewhat, by the reduced effectiveness of Bombers from 4 attack to 3 attack (which nerfs Germany’s fleet attacks and any eventual invasion of UK), and the reduced ability of German air to penetrate into Russia and Africa, without moving out of position relative to Western Europe.

We again removed the infantry for version 2.0 of PTV because we found that the threat of a buffed Russia was so great as to render Sealion impracticable, even when UK made greedy purchases. Perhaps further play testing will reveal that that change was improvident. Your analysis does make some intuitive sense, but I do think its something that can ultimately only be determined from further playtesting.

A case in point is Adam’s ongoing game with Ksmckay. https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/35364/adam514-axis-vs-ksmckay-allies-pat-to-victory/127?page=6

Some context: This game was the older version of PTV with three British Infantry in UK.

Adam, as Germany, purchased a carrier, marine, and sub on round 1 (an obvious prelude to Sea Lion).

Ksmckay, as UK, responded by purchasing an airbase (for Gibraltar) and a factory (for Egypt). This was an incredibly ballsy purchase after Adam’s fleet-heavy G1 buy.*

On his second purchase, Adam committed 100% to a round 3 Sea Lion (10 transports 2 marines), moved all air in range, and even took Scotland.

Even with UK’s extremely aggressive UK1 buy, Adam’s G1 Fleet purchase, and his 100% commitment to sealion on Round 2, his odds against UK on Round 3 were only 87%.

Removing the infantry from UK was an effort to give Germany better options when UK makes greedy Round 1 purchases.