@Arthur-Bomber-Harris If Trulpen and Andrew both go all in (including 3 UK air), the average # of casualties is 10 for Japan. About 1-2 of that is air because of the AA so that means he on average keeps 3-4 land units and 20 or so air. His fleet is then united, he has all the transports, the naval base, and he will have built 6 more units in FIC by the time he swings around back (more if he builds another mIC in Malaya). THe US and ANZAC may have grabbed some money islands in the meantime or the Philippines, but they won’t yet be in a position to deny Japan their recapture.
I think you are right that he won’t be in a position to hit Egypt but he will have the base from which to do so later if he needs (and after Moscow has fallen) and he can certainly cause some mischief for the UK now. The Persia mIC could certainly be at risk.
If, on this next turn, India cannot be safely secured, then he has to keep units in that sea zone to protect the transports that will do the landing (and possibly to hold the landing spot in Ceylon). He also wants to grab the money islands. If Anzac takes Java this turn, he needs to commit two transports to do so. Those transports are either sacrificed or defended. If defended, can he stretch out to defend them and also to defend sz36. If sacrificed, where does he replace them? If he does in FIC then he has to build fewer land units. If he does in Japan he needs to pull fleet back to protect them (assuming the fleet remains in Caroline Islands).
And if at any point, he decides to go after the US and ANZAC, then it becomes much more difficult for him to hold India.
But I do agree that it is better to send China after the mainland and I think Surfer’s suggestion of W India to stack the UK is better. It both helps protect the Mid East and frees China to put pressure on Japan on another front. I was just too fixated on combining the UK and China units and Burma is the option for that.