The good times are over

Myself it really depends on what Germany does, though my standard moves are, Dest from SZ35 to SZ59, Sub from SZ40 to SZ45, The Subs a 50/50, some people like to take the carrier to the tran as well but, I prefer the Dest Alone. If Africa is going good, Namely if I can retake EGY, then the tran in SZ40 takes two inf from AUS and invades New Guinea (Something nice to try) If I cannot retake EGY I like to use the Tran to pick up 2 INF from AUS and then move to SZ30, then on UK2 drop them anywhere along the Africa coast (Even Persia if it needs them). If Germany takes EGY and you “can” retake it, then do it bringing 2 inf from IND, 1 INF from TRJ and the Fighter from SZ35 (You can also bring your Bomber but I usually don’t). Otherwise I like to stack 2 inf in TRJ and the 3 Indian Inf and A-A gun to Persia. The AC stays with the Tran wherever it decides to go. If Germany is stupid and doesn’t take EGY, then smile :lol: happily and move the INF from TRJ into it, stack 4 + A-A gun in Persia, move the FIG to EGY and move the Tran and AC to SZ33 (Out of reach of the IJN).
The SAF INF always moves up, regardless of what you do.

So I played a quick game against a friend last weekend (we agreed it was experimental and would not count towards our scoreboard).

I was the axis and picked two national advantages: naval night-fighting and nazi scientists.

The allied player insisted on also having two national advantages, so he picked colonial garrison and flying fortresses (I forget the name, it’s the non-LHTR national advantage; US bombers are immune to AA).

Colonial Garrison gave me a lot of problems!  He placed the IC in India, which I went for right away, but the allies managed to trade it for a few turns, and then the US player waited till I was in a bad situation and bought two factories in china and sinkian.

The battleship advantage was not that great.  It was fun for a couple of battles, but then the US player just avoided my battleships.  I was a few turns from opening the suez canal, and my fleet was prepared against africa, but the US player was going to provide quite a hassle.

The game ended prematurely; I suspect I would eventually have lost.  The nazi scientists got me a tech upgrade only after 10 tech buys.

@bigchris:

@gnasape:

Thanks bigchris, what if we assume that the dice rolls of the attacker and defenders are two separate events?

16 rolls for attacker, 7 rolls for defender.

sure, that’s fine.  as long as you are separating the rolls based on some arbitrary labeling and not based on their values, you can test any group/sub-group you like.

Ho: the dice are uniformly distributed
Ha: the dice are not uniformly distributed

Attacker: 6,5,6,5,4,6,5,6,6,4,3,5,4,6,3,6
histogram for entire sequence (16 rolls total)
6s: 6666666
5s: 5555
4s: 444
3s: 33
2s:
1s:

pearson chi-square test:
with 16 rolls, we expect 16/6=2.67 rolls in each bin according to Ho.
(7 - 2.67)^2 / 2.67 +
(4 - 2.67)^2 / 2.67 +
(3 - 2.67)^2 / 2.67 +
(2 - 2.67)^2 / 2.67 +
(0 - 2.67)^2 / 2.67 +
(0 - 2.67)^2 / 2.67 = 13.25

chi-square value = 13.25
degrees-of-freedom = 5
Probability (One-Tailed): 0.0211

that is, for the attacker, if Ho is in fact true, the probability of getting results as or more extreme than these is 0.0211.  These data are sufficient evidence (at the 5% level) to reject Ho and adopt Ha.

Defender: 2,2,1,3,4,2,1
histogram for entire sequence (7 rolls total)
6s:
5s:
4s: 4
3s: 3
2s: 222
1s: 11

pearson chi-square test:
with 7 rolls, we expect 7/6=1.17 rolls in each bin according to Ho.
(0 - 1.17)^2 / 1.17 +
(0 - 1.17)^2 / 1.17 +
(1 - 1.17)^2 / 1.17 +
(1 - 1.17)^2 / 1.17 +
(3 - 1.17)^2 / 1.17 +
(2 - 1.17)^2 / 1.17 = 5.857

chi-square value = 5.857
degrees-of-freedom = 5
Probability (One-Tailed): 0.3204

that is, for the defender, if Ho is in fact true, the probability of getting results as or more extreme than these is 0.3204.  this is insufficient evidence to reject Ho.  therefore, we do not reject Ho.

Thanks, I am basing it as usually the attacker’s dice roll is submitted first than defender.

I bet he was a fantastic dance instructor, when not making plans for world domination.

Was the paper arguing that this is true for the first round of combat, and where smart attackers know when to call it off?  I didn’t quite follow the paper since the whole Mr T thing was distracting.

Intuitively I’d guess that the size of bad luck depends mostly on force composition.  If the attacker uses planes, sure they can lose big.  If the defender has planes, they can lose big too.  Defenders can also lose really big if you take their capital (or to a lesser extent if you take WEU or SEU).

For single round combats, most of the time attackers can retreat if they see their luck going bad after the first round - and that makes a huge difference.

Every Nation gets 2 NAs + 1 Tech.

Allies pick 1 more NA and 1 more tech for the nation(s) of their choice. (ie both don’t have to go to the same country.)
Axis pick 1 more NA and 1 more tech for each nation.

That could be fun!

I’m going to make sure the US gets that one next game :lol:.  Looks like I’ve hijacked this thread.  Oh, and btw, Salmon is also very good raw.  A true Japanese player eats sushi around J2!

10 minutes for sure. We play a weekly game at the local hobby shop and it drives me nuts when some chowder head spends 20 minutes trying to figure out where to buy then another 20 minutes where to attack. Arrrrggggh! I usually loose intrest in the game because it is so hard to stay focused.

the dire rolling and combat resolution should be unlimited, after all there can be some pretty big battles out there and there may be times when you have to think hard on wether to push the attack or break off.

But yea 10 minutes for every thing but combat resoultion.