What's the consensus on a standard bid?

It’s hard to tell from my sim’s overall numbers how often you will succeed in taking land. Yes, in 53% of cases you will wipe out the Germans, but of those times, there will be some times when Russia survives with only 1 Ftr.

To get a better sense, you could put that 2 attacking units must survive, but that’s not very accurate either.

The only way to really tell is to look at the IPC diff. graph:
Probability % IPC loss differential
1.4% 19 IPCs
6.9% 16 IPCs
15.6% 13 IPCs
18.3% 10 IPCs

Germany has 19 IPCs of material in Norway. So an ILD (IPC Loss Differential) of 19 is total victory, without loss.
ILD of 16 means 1 Inf lost in taking Norway
13 means 2 Inf lost
10 means 3 Inf lost

Those are the 4 best case scenarios for the attack, and the only ones in which Russia successfully takes Norway. They add up to 42.2%.

Those are MY numbers. :evil:

I think I have found the issue.

You guys want to take the land.  I want to kill the defending fighter.  I could care less about taking the land!  Without that fighter, it becomes 2 submarines, bomber vs battleship, transport, submarine.  And those odds have the defending battleship surviving in 2 out of 3 battles, which is what is important.

And you can’t all Nor, Ukr, wru. Even cannot attack nor, wru, bel. The risk of losing the fig is still there. And you left a tasty tank for counter by trannie  :-D

Even if you win at Nor, I still can hit z1 tra with 1 sub and go for z13 BB with the other sub plus figs . Norway attack disturbs greatly r1 and still the subs can do some work

-And it kills a tasty icecream tank. I call it tancream (chinese guy voice)
-That’s good (Homer Simpson voice)
-But the tancream is cursed
-That’s bad
-Tancream has a beautiful T-series design

• …. ???
  -That’s good

:lol:

I don’t have to hit Norway, W. Russia and Ukraine

Just hit W. Russia and Norway.  Very doable, and I don’t need the Norwegian land.  So yea, there might be a tank there to kill, it might not be there.  Point is, you kill the fighter thus ending the fighter, bomber, 2 submarine attack on SZ 2 and saving the battleship.

All that, and you don’t even lose a fighter!  (And since I don’t normally hit Ukraine anyway, I like to just hit W. Russia, this also nets me a fighter I otherwise would not have killed.)

So? Why not kill the Nor stack all games?

@Funcioneta:

So? Why not kill the Nor stack all games?

Because killing the Nor stack to take the land is very costly.  Taking it to preserve the Battleship by destroying the fighter, is not as costly as losing the battleship and transport.

It’s just a way of saving the British fleet and giving England a chance to use it instead of losing it.  Doesn’t always work, but it does work enough that it’s effective in stopping an 8 bid submarine in SZ 8 from ending England’s ability to wage war.

@Cmdr:

I think I have found the issue.

You guys want to take the land.  I want to kill the defending fighter.  I could care less about taking the land!  Without that fighter, it becomes 2 submarines, bomber vs battleship, transport, submarine.  And those odds have the defending battleship surviving in 2 out of 3 battles, which is what is important.

Nope, not my dice sim.  66% chance of winning with Russia

My numbers are to kill the german ftr (at all costs) or better (Russian ftr survives, take the land, etc)

@axis_roll:

@Cmdr:

I think I have found the issue.

You guys want to take the land.  I want to kill the defending fighter.  I could care less about taking the land!  Without that fighter, it becomes 2 submarines, bomber vs battleship, transport, submarine.  And those odds have the defending battleship surviving in 2 out of 3 battles, which is what is important.

Nope, not my dice sim.  66% chance of winning with Russia

My numbers are to kill the german ftr (at all costs) or better (Russian ftr survives, take the land, etc)

What sim are you using?  I’m using Frood for mine, and I gave the parameters.

AA battlemap

@axis_roll:

AA battlemap

That’s a map, not a dice simulator. :P

oops, batsim

@axis_roll:

oops, batsim

(hums)

Bat-man!

Bat-man!

(Adam West voice) - To the com-Bat simulator!

@newpaintbrush:

@axis_roll:

oops, batsim

(hums)

Bat-man!

Bat-man!

(Adam West voice) - To the com-Bat simulator!

not sure why, but that made me laugh

@axis_roll:

@newpaintbrush:

@axis_roll:

oops, batsim

(hums)

Bat-man!

Bat-man!

(Adam West voice) - To the com-Bat simulator!

not sure why, but that made me laugh

Maybe because it was funny!  :-D

I love my new paint brush…

@axis_roll:

not sure why, but that made me laugh

You laugh because you are weak.

…and also because it was funny.

BTW - This is CrazyStraw/themarvinmartian here.  I’ve been out of the pool for a while, but it looked like fun so I’ve come back.  Everyone seemed to have changed names, so I thought I’d be a joiner.

Egads! Another Orson Scott Card ID!

Now Jennifer just has to change her name to Bugger Queen…

@Ender:

Egads! Another Orson Scott Card ID!

Now Jennifer just has to change her name to Bugger Queen…

Petra,

And I refuse to change my name to Commander Petra until the Bad Karma that goes up incrementally daily stops. :P  Tired of getting +1 bad karma EVERY FRACKIN DAY by the same person with a vendetta.

@Cmdr:

@Ender:

Egads! Another Orson Scott Card ID!

Now Jennifer just has to change her name to Bugger Queen…

Petra

Oh, I like the bugger queen.

Oo yaaa.

Holy shnikies, did I get -1 Karma within 30 seconds of posting my first message?  Gotta be a record.  Make the trophy BIG.

Card: Jennifer could also be Jane, given the amount she is online  :-D

And then there was that whole topic thing being discussed, Bids: They’re creeping up in my circle.  We haven’t seen south of 11 in a looong time.  And if we’re playing 2 simultaneous boards with sides reversed, we’ll set a 14 bid for all boards.  Axis are about 50-50 in those situations (but with a very small number of trials).

Peace

Good thing I gave you +1 for the Card reference!

Interesting about the high bids - do you have any restrictions re: placement?