Completely agree with JDOW on most of that.
With Taranto, if Italy don’t scramble that means the destruction of 39IPC of Italian ships for the ultimate loss of 36IPC of British ships, assuming no bid ships are sent in. It only becomes viable if enough other units are destroyed and given that at least one UK fighter is trapped in SZ97, you need destroy enough to compensate for that one too.
If Italy scrambles 3ftr to Taranto and only 1ftr 1bomb are brought from London/Scotland and no bid units, there’s a significant chance of losing (27% or so) and on average it’s only a 6TUV trade.
I guess those odds show you why Taranto became rare in Balanced Mod, because you usually don’t have the sub bid. You can theoretically bring a second fighter from London but that’s another unit lost for sinking the SZ97 fleet.
The SZ92 stack works really well providing your fighter/tac sink the SZ96 TT (96%), include the SZ109 DD & the SZ91 Cruiser and Germany doesn’t claim Southern France. You only need the airbase if you need to compensate for any of these issues not going the allied/SZ92 way although many players feel that it is worth it anyway. Perhaps in part because it also defends SZ91 and you probably will need the airbase round 2 if you want to maintain your position there.
Sounds like you’ve discovered the difficulty of USA making a real difference in the Pacific. If Japan are on their guard this seems to be difficult although a miscue is always possible. USA do need to do enough to hold Hawaii because you have to assume India will fall eventually. I’m inclined to think that once the allies have a decent foothold in Europe it’s time to start spending big $ to hurt Japan.
One thing I’m not convinced of though, is the need for such a high bid as 15 for the allies to be competitive. Once the bid gets to 10, the Scotland fighter becomes possible and that throws a real spanner in the works for the Axis script.