-Squirecam,
You’re proposed Russia 1 attack against Ukr and EEuro and or Finland is risky at best, and as someone else said assumes no units into EEurope. In fact Finland is not a good place to attack on R1 most of the time because it offers a diminished return over other spaces. That said even in Lowluck to attack Ukr and EEurope would entail assuming a large amount of risk on your part. Remember that LowLuck does not mean no luck, it just means that there is narrower range of potential outcomes. For example, in Ukr on Russia 1 with dice there is a chance that even with bringing the house the Russians could roll no hits while the defenders roll 5-6. Adding more units via a bid only increases the potential range of outcomes and therefore the risk as a deterrant but it does not eliminate the problem, and for this reason a greatly overmatched opponent could attack even an all Ukraine bid just for the lucky shot of it permanently tilting the game into their favor. In LL however I would argue that the dice are still quite important, perhaps moreso because you are always rolling fewer of them, and its for this reason that in LL all your moves must be sound strategically and not mere crap shoots. Back to the original proposed Russia 1 attack on Ukr and EE, were you to do this you would find that almost 1/3 of the time this would fail because the German defender in Ukr rolls a 2 or less, and in LL once a battle tilts against you it cannot be turned around by luck. So in this case 5inf and 2arm against 3inf 2arm ftr where the first round of combat results in 3 hits would almost certainly mean Russia would fail to take the fighter out. Additionally, the same remainder of two will occur in EEurope on the second round of combat there should you attack with 3inf arm 2ftrs there, so in reality in order to get two fighters you must roll very very well as the chances both 1/3s miss does not have winning odds. Ultimately, what you are really gambling then is whether you can avoid both of these hits to get both fighters.
The converse is that if one did make this Russia 1 combo and it didn’t go well that is both of the extras in EE and Ukr hit then the Germans end up with a very strong advantage that will remain for the rest of the game. And this is certainly compounded with the likelyhood that as someone else said there will be a large number of units bid somewhere else, probably Africa which will guarantee Germany a very strong income base with which to pressure Russia. So as a German player I’d be highly tempted to not bid a guy into EEuro if I thought people would actually attack it. The odds that Russia gets lucky versus the odds Germany gets lucky are 4:1 which is just not enough to gamble away the whole game on.
I agree that 23ipcs is a good amount for a bid, but not that an Euro bid takes less skill than an Africa bid. With a European bid you are gambling that you will be able to quickly amass a force and overwhelm Russia using armor with some infantry. If you are even a little bit off with your predictions of their future troops strength when you make your move then its curtains. However, with an Africa bid you can grind down your opponent using brute strength, if the Axis never relinquishes control their production advantage the Allies should have problems. With a bid that is heavy in Africa you can easily afford some minor mistakes, but this is not so when the bid is largely in Europe.
