@squirecam
I can’t say that as a certainty, but if you suppress the income to the max, set up the Air base, and stack what 14 planes there…yes it seems pretty certain he can destroy you. I’m not saying its a guaranteed J3-India but that doesnt matter much…
If Japan concentrates all those planes, they can also take ceylon, which gives them a 2 space landing zone without the carriers. They can smash all the units and even if they dont take it that turn (J3-4) they can do so over time using all those resources and by shuttling in round after round of guys and stratbombings, if necessary.
At least as my opponents play, its an “when not if” situation. Its just not a great Japan plan because USA will topple SZ6 and Japan has limited money. Its much better to 1) just take all his UKP money 2) take all the other money 3) blow india away at your leisure with streams of tanks and planes.
Japan can also use diplomacy and just pass straight through any blockers. You can infiltrate a uk unit in there “sneaky karl” style but that’s easily defeated by leaving the units on the transports on the interturn.
So, no, its not a India falls J3 no matter what…its a India falls no matter what…then what (did the allies do with that time and space)