2017 LEAGUE TITLE FINAL. JDOW (Allies+13) vs JuanSpain. BM3

Hey Sir,
I am of course super happy to see these great dice for me at Finland and I can absolutely understand the frustration (boy, I get on tilt already for way less of bad luck)

Regarding low luck rerolls I have a track record in the league that I never played with them and I never accepted them even if got them offered voluntarily by my opponent after I experienced dice disasters. (Just just refused one in the semi final after my failed 96 attack.

I believe LL rerolls influence the dynamics of the game in a negative way.

Thus, I hope you understand that I would like to continue without any kind of rerolls.

Best,
Tobias

To be clear: You will review NCM and drop me a note when I can continue, right?

Alright!

TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 4

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 1 armour and 10 artilleries; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        2 fighters moved from Russia to 127 Sea Zone
        1 mech_infantry moved from Tambov to Bryansk
        1 mech_infantry moved from Bryansk to Ukraine
        1 armour moved from Tambov to Rostov
        1 armour moved from Rostov to Ukraine
        1 mech_infantry moved from Volgograd to Ukraine

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in 127 Sea Zone
            Russians attack with 2 fighters
            Germans defend with 1 destroyer, 1 submarine and 1 transport
            1 submarine owned by the Germans Submerged
                Russians roll dice for 2 fighters in 127 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 transport in 127 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the Russians and 1 destroyer owned by the Germans lost in 127 Sea Zone
                1 transport owned by the Germans lost in 127 Sea Zone
            Russians win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
            Casualties for Russians: 1 fighter
            Casualties for Germans: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
        Battle in Ukraine
            Russians attack with 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 factory_minor and 1 infantry
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys in Ukraine, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 aaGun and 1 infantry in Ukraine, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys in Ukraine, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 aaGun and 1 infantry in Ukraine, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 aaGun owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys in Ukraine, round 4 : 1/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Ukraine, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine
            Russians win, taking Ukraine from Germans with 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
            Casualties for Germans: 1 aaGun and 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        1 fighter moved from 127 Sea Zone to Finland
        2 infantry moved from Norway to Finland
        10 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov
        1 artillery moved from Russia to Tambov
        1 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov
        6 infantry moved from Timguska to Novosibirsk
        2 aaGuns and 11 infantry moved from Buryatia to Amur

    Place Units - Russians
        1 armour placed in Volgograd
        10 artilleries placed in Russia

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 33 PUs; end with 33 PUs
        Trigger Russians 7 Great Patriotic War: Russians met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 36 PUs
        Trigger Russians 2 Persia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 38 PUs
        Trigger Russians 3 Siberia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 40 PUs
        Objective Russians 2 Spread Of Communism: Russians met a national objective for an additional 6 PUs; end with 46 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : -0,33
Russians : -0,50

Savegame

Regarding the alternative game continuing with LL dice in Finland, I would like to be frank, I do not say no, but also not yes at the moment. My biggest worry is that it would be hard for me to play my A game in such an alternative universe game so I am not sure whether this would provide the required gain of knowledge.

But as said, depends a bit on the timing and my schedule, so this is definitely not a “no” to your suggestion.

Best,
Tobias

It is very easy to look at everything from the side…Looks like it was somewhat optimistic for the axis to place in 112 at G1? With a destroyer buy and placing in 113 at G1 it would have looked differently now

Finland dice is not good but not outragous too. You have to be prepared for 3 defending hits in round 1 (about 15% chance) and you are by no means guaranteed 3 hits in round 1 (17 total power). There are few units and hence round one is so decisive

Maybe I am unfair to you @JuanSpain . We all know the dice gods do not play into our hands from time to time. I agree with all you write, obviously in most situations this will go well for you and it is very unlucky that this happens in the big final. I totally agree.

I still think you overestimate how unlucky you were. If my math is correct it is about 3% chance that one bomber will hit and all other units will miss. For simplicity if we assume fighters also hit at 4 and don’t count in the “1’s” it is about a 12% chance that you will score 1 hit. Combined with the 15% chance of the defenders we look at 2% chance during round 1. During a game you will experience many 2% outcomes. It is very unlucky for you that it happens in this battle of course. Round 2 is a completely new battle and 2 defending hits will happen 44% of the time

I still think this is a battle where you are very vulnerable to dice variations and my initial point still stands it is fairly likely that JDOW will score 3 hits in round 1 and that is not a great result for you either way, and even with 2 hits from your end in round 1 it does not change much

Just my two cents and I hope I don’t come across as a “besserwisser”. That is not my intention as I respect you as one of the most fair players I have ever played, as well as a very strong opponent!

Just for everyone’s info, the old dice calculator shows it is just under a 2% outcome here: http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=3&aArt=&aArm=&aFig=2&aBom=2&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=1&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=2&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

Not sure I understand why this battle is so game changing. +5IPCs to USSR in territories/NOs, -2 in territory and -20 in planes to Germany. Seems a setback, not a game changer. Perhaps there’s some option opened up that I’m missing the strength of. Anyway, I hope once the final result is declared the “for fun” “what if” game can go ahead.

Hey all and thanks Simon for doing the calculations.
Interesting to see btw the v2 of the calculator has a slightly different outcome:
http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/graph.php?cmd=piechart&rules=1940&battleType=land&attInfantry=2&attMechanizedInfantry=1&attFighter=2&attBomber=2&defInfantry=1&defFighter=2

According to this, the result was a bottom 2.6% outcome.
In my final against Zhukov I experienced a 0.5% chance disaster at Java which certainly shifted the entire dynamics in the Pacific, while I have to acknowledge I had favorable dice in G1 and J1, so back then I did definitely not call it a dice game because it wasn’t.

In a nutshell: The Finland battle outcome was not just bad, it was certainly VERY bad for the Axis I would for sure be heavily complaining about these dice, a dice whiner as I am.

@JuanSpain : I have some input and some considerations on that turn and the overall strategy so far. I am happy to share after the game, I cannot disclose it yet.
And regarding the potentials alternative continuation with a LL outcome at Finland, I just wanted to be 100% honest from the first place. People tend to say “yes yes, we can do that” and when the time has come, they are reluctant and do not continue or play at such a slow pace that they just hope the opponent loses interest at some point.

I answer was honest and it included that I definitely consider it and usually I try to be a good sportsman and to match my opponent’s expectations. I just wanted to have this little loophole that allows me to not stand there as a liar in the unlikely event the alternative game will not happen.

Happy holidays Juan!
Tobias

@JuanSpain said in 2017 LEAGUE TITLE FINAL. JDOW (Allies+13) vs JuanSpain. BM3:

I still never use the simulators

I assume you refer to the online battle calculators? I also use them rarely for planning actual moves and mostly only for exactly that purpose, to determine how unlikely a certain outcome was.

Welcome back, sounds good!