@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:
My overall got murdered by a single throw of the dice in a Classic game this year…
You would have been +3
Because you’re ELO is super high
Maybe too high.
and what was mine from this loss, something like -50 or -60?
this means that it’s a terrible incentive for me to be playing anyone far below my rating, esp given that they are much more likely and prone to take big swings and hope for a lucky big result. it’s unfortunate because i think people like pacifier, abh, and peirce definitely have pretty solid skill, but they look at the rating differential and think their best chance is to take those swings and get lucky for an occasional big win.
not ever happening again for me. i’ll stick to only closely rated players from now on, even if it means i only play 1-3 players all year. sad, but…
blame the system.
if anybody far below my rating wants to play me, happy to do so outside of the league. just not worth it for me in league if the most i’ll gain is a handful of points.
@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:
if anybody far below my rating wants to play me, happy to do so outside of the league. just not worth it for me in league if the most i’ll gain is a handful of points.
i would make one exception to this, which is, if you’re willing to resist the temptation of taking big risks unnecessarily (meaning you only take the big risk if you’ve got no other choice) and instead play the odds and go for positional play and are genuinely striving to become a consistently good player.
@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:
My overall got murdered by a single throw of the dice in a Classic game this year…
that sucks.
so we can relate lol
I’m back here now, because I was thinking.
For both you and me, a big part of what happened was we were playing someone who’s stronger than their current rating.
I played @Ragnell804 in Classic, and he’d been playing a lot of Classic games and is a strong player, and experienced. He hadn’t played many in the league yet, so was under-rated. My overall was a result of past OOB and BM exploits over 13 years and it got taken down pretty good by a Classic game of a few rounds. That’s OK, as I keep playing it should seek the right level.
As you probably know, @peirce is a veteran, sounds like. I don’t know how many games he’s played before the league but it’s a lot. You guys maybe have about equal PtV experience.
@peirce has just 9 games notched in league play, across versions.
So I will stress that like @Ragnell804 , Peirce simply isn’t a known quantity in the league. In other words, you and I kind of got ambushed, if we’re being protective of our ELO, that is.
So you know what I’m saying - don’t ban lower rated players and instruct them not to take huge risks. Instead be very wary of players the league doesn’t know much about, yet. When you play ABH, who has a 1767 and 42-30, plus we know a bit about his play style, he’s a known quantity. There’s a big difference between he and Peirce, that way. I just wanted to bring that up and I’m confident that will help.
yes i do factor that in, in this particular case i knew he was experienced from his introduction and knew he is coming from lobby play, which both adam and i came from as well, so i knew to expect solid play and not underestimate him. frankly, that’s why i decided to give him a chance.
i don’t think i was ambushed, at least not by skill alone lol there was a ton of help from luck, unfortunately for me, and fortunately for him. one only needs to review the game and will readily conclude this.
in the end, it’s a dice game. he took the big risks and got lucky.
my point is simple, relying on such luck will not make for a consistent record. if he continues along that trajectory, he will see mediocre results. i think he’s better than that. is what i’m saying.
i think this game could benefit a lot from a rule change that allowed the defender to retreat as well. this would help avoid these kinds of situations. always seemed odd to me that only attacker can retreat.
@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:
i think this game could benefit a lot from a rule change that allowed the defender to retreat as well. this would help avoid these kinds of situations. always seemed odd to me that only attacker can retreat.
My man needs to discover North Africa! Sadly no readily-available online version yet 😢
@Stucifer said in Post League Game Results Here:
@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:
i think this game could benefit a lot from a rule change that allowed the defender to retreat as well. this would help avoid these kinds of situations. always seemed odd to me that only attacker can retreat.
My man needs to discover North Africa! Sadly no readily-available online version yet 😢
yes, discover that, or just common sense :)
I realize most League players don’t take 30% odds very often, but considering you have better odds at 30% than landing the same side twice in a row flipping a coin, I think a lot of us (myself included) put too much faith in a 70% defense
That's 'cause a droid don't pull people's arms out of their sockets when they lose.
in any battle, either side can retreat.
not in the a&a world, apparently.
@Stucifer said in Post League Game Results Here:
I realize most League players don’t take 30% odds very often, but considering you have better odds at 30% than landing the same side twice in a row flipping a coin, I think a lot of us (myself included) put too much faith in a 70% defense
well, it’s not even just 30%, it’s 30% AND -32 avg tuv lol
Most players here probably know statistics better than me actually so I hope that doesn’t come across as patronizing. 🤓
I recall vividly in one of my first league matches here, with @ArtofWar1947 and I recall winning a ~30% battle. I was elated of course, but he was a superior strategist and ground me down for a victory. I do admire the tenacity of some players that continue to battle despite the odds seemingly stacked against them. Like the Brits in the dark days of 1940-41, sometimes the grit pays off.
That's 'cause a droid don't pull people's arms out of their sockets when they lose.
That’s right, several of the core A&A rules from the 70’s, 80’s are unchanged and that is one of the big ones.
We top players are in danger of taking the game too seriously sometimes. It’s designed for fun!!
LOL you talk JUST like a top A&A player. Analytical through and through, frustrated by the decisions of fate that you can do nothing about (you said it best in your game thread - let it ride, we live and die by the dice), and starting to obsess about every point of ELO (lol I know you’ll counter that)
Be careful with % chances and expected TUV changes.
@axis-dominion is that the raw number from the calc or mathing out the avg remaining units? On low odds plays I manually calculate expected TUV for both scenarios using the Avg Defender and Avg Attacker units remaining
@Stucifer said in Post League Game Results Here:
Most players here probably know statistics better than me actually so I hope that doesn’t come across as patronizing. 🤓
I recall vividly in one of my first league matches here, with @ArtofWar1947 and I recall winning a ~30% battle. I was elated of course, but he was a superior strategist and ground me down for a victory. I do admire the tenacity of some players that continue to battle despite the odds seemingly stacked against them. Like the Brits in the dark days of 1940-41, sometimes the grit pays off.
you should see how much of a pounding i got from all his luck earlier in the game… i still continued, but this latest result was the nail in the coffin.
It was many years ago, in one of my many battles with my nemesis @boldfresh that I would say “there was a 2% chance of that happening”, or “there was a 1% chance of that happening”. To which he famously replied “1% and 2% chances seem to happen an awful lot in this game (Axis and Allies)”.
Well, it’s easy to overlook: There’s a 1% and 2% chance on either end of the curve, so there is a 4% chance that a 2% chance will happen. And of course, we breeze by all the expected results but that more extreme one happens and it gets a lot more attention.
@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:
That’s right, several of the core A&A rules from the 70’s, 80’s are unchanged and that is one of the big ones.
We top players are in danger of taking the game too seriously sometimes. It’s designed for fun!!
LOL you talk JUST like a top A&A player. Analytical through and through, frustrated by the decisions of fate that you can do nothing about (you said it best in your game thread - let it ride, we live and die by the dice), and starting to obsess about every point of ELO (lol I know you’ll counter that)
Be careful with % chances and expected TUV changes.
i guess what i’m saying is that, strictly from a competitive league standpoint, there’s no good incentive to play a significantly lower ranked (or new) player. if it’s just for fun, which i totally agree with btw! then i should just play them outside of the league.
@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:
you should see how much of a pounding i got from all his luck earlier in the game… i still continued, but this latest result was the nail in the coffin.
I gotta ask. Did you not see the guys complaining and agape over his luck in the PTV discussion thread, complete with an AI parrot of Trump talking about Peirce’s luck? (As if each roll is not an independent event LOOOOL) A lot funner to believe in the streaks.
You ran into a buzzsaw! My legendary luck has counteracted some of his, though LOOOL
@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:
@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:
That’s right, several of the core A&A rules from the 70’s, 80’s are unchanged and that is one of the big ones.
We top players are in danger of taking the game too seriously sometimes. It’s designed for fun!!
LOL you talk JUST like a top A&A player. Analytical through and through, frustrated by the decisions of fate that you can do nothing about (you said it best in your game thread - let it ride, we live and die by the dice), and starting to obsess about every point of ELO (lol I know you’ll counter that)
Be careful with % chances and expected TUV changes.
i guess what i’m saying is that, strictly from a competitive league standpoint, there’s no good incentive to play a significantly lower ranked (or new) player. if it’s just for fun, which i totally agree with btw! then i should just play them outside of the league.
and then let the dice roll on! lol
