@ussgordoncaptain: I agree with your logic that a bid is a perfect balancing system. At a certain point you will be at 50/50. The only “mistake” this community made over the past 3-4 years was to fail the appropriate bid to create the equality. All the community learned from season to season was that the bids used during last season weren’t high enough.
This was biased by the fact that in the lower tiers Allies had a higher winrate. However, clashes between top rated players, Axis almost always won because there weren’t enough games to find the equilibrium.
The reason of the high winrate was based on a misconception in my opinion: In the old days it was “common knowledge” that “time plays for the Allies, the clock is ticking for them, the longer the game gets, the better the Allied chances are”
This was proven to be wrong because experienced Axis players managed to establish a strategy that created an almost unbearable pressure towards an economic lead. Axis could at least equalize the income and due to the inefficacy of the Allied spread IPCs across many nations combined with long transport rules resulted in easy Axis bin by economic dominance.
And here comes the point what makes the difference between Vanilla 40+ bids and BM.
The 40+ bid is kind of a hammer. You skew the first round into your favor and try to avoid that the axis will be ever able to blow up the balloon to the size they need to win.
In a nutshell you more or less force the Axis to either break this initial bid with power or lose slowly.
The potential outcome at the equilibrium could possibly be: Allies stack Yunnan J1, Japan still needs to attack, dicey battle, whoever gets lucky has the advantage for the rest of the game.
In BM you do not try to balance the early Axis over-power by breaking it with more Allied units but by making this plain and simple “eco-dominance” plan way harder for the Axis.
I simply believe that this is a more elegant way to balance the game and gives new strategies and skill more room to breathe, because I am afraid that in Vanilla the optimal strategy would be to take dicey battles in the first 2 rounds and hope for a good outcome.
I give you an extreme example: Assume you would allow multiple units per territory: In this case Allies could put enough units to France to make the G1 a dicey game decider. And I think this would lower the fun.
Still, there is nothing “wrong” about playing Vanilla, but I think BM is a bit more sophisticated in a way to keep the game interesting.