@221B:
Interesting theory…
Just an extrapolation.
Regional division in the US is greater than at any time since 1860. The whole “Red State, Blue State” thing is getting out of hand. New England is Liberal, as is California, Oregon and Washington. The plains, and south are conservative. Mid-Atlantic and rust belt are moderate but leaning liberal.
As we go through the next decade or so, those core divisions in outlook will start to create some significant points of stress. Abortion laws, progressive taxation, social welfare… these are the wedges. The driving force behind those wedges are going to be things like the simple demographics of the country, particularly as regards age and wage.
The final impetus will be when Social Security has to start paying out more than it takes in. Forget all the crap you hear about Social Security going belly up in 2042 or something like that. THAT date is contingent upon the alleged “trust fund” actually existing… it doesn;t. The REAL date is about 10-12 years from now when SS has to spend more than it takes in, the difference being made up from general revenues as the Feds are forced to start paying back those “IOU’s” in the trust fund. Taxes HAVE to be dramatically increased to cover the 32 TRILLION dollar IOU and current benefits load to pay for the system through 2042.
Ain;t gonna happen. It would require a net FEDERAL tax rate of double what we have now. Working people will not stand for it.
Trouble is, by 2015 or so, net tax payers will be outnumbered by net tax recipients by about 3 to 2. That is not enough to get the government to change course (majority rule in Congress and all). But it is FAR more than enough to have that 1/3 say “To hell with the US” and split from the Union.
Add in one more stress on people’s finances… the turn of 401(k) money from being “buy” pressure on the stock market to “sell” pressure. That will first flatten the market, then create the longest Bear market ever… People seeing their savings disappear while simultaneously being told to pay double or more to support everyone else… And the 401(k) tide is already beginning it’s shift and will peak about the same time SS goes red on an annual basis…
And all it takes is ONE state to secede. Once the crack opens, others will follow in short order as each state is faced with “last one out is left holding the tab”
No more United States.