Allright, interesting strategy from the original poster. It’s also important to think about what the opponent could do to counter it.
It’s clear that Malaya is essential if Japan wants to go for India since you need the staging post. And the Allies can hold Malaya easily against such a declaration on J2, and the 4 transports near Japan can’t be sure to have a clear path into the Philippines, which annuls some of that strategy.
Allies can respond to the strategy in the following way:
Transport infantry to Malaya (UK), land planes in Malaya (UK+ANZ).
Creating 6 inf, 3 fig, 1 tac in Malaya. Hit expectation: around 4.5 hits.
The Japanese are sure to bleed groundunits then in Malaya OR expensive planes. And what dies in Malaya, can’t be transported onward to India. Even if Japan offers up expensive planes, that means that those planes cannot help out in the attack on India later.
And, if there is no declaration of war on J1,
UK can send the BB to Seazone 20, and the US can send the DD or Sub to seazone 21. Now the 4 transports from Japan are blocked from going to the Philippines on J2.
I’m also not convinced that war on J1 is worth it, as your transport capacity is so low that you can’t follow up attacks if they go badly, plus your units in Seazone 19 and 20 cannot project any power except the Philippines. In our games, US usually spends most of the money in the Pacific to at least equal the japanese combat fleet. The earlier they manage that, the earlier the Japanese are threatened with game end. Additionally, the Russians can declare war on R2, threatening Japan by allowing US fig and tac planes to land there from Midway on US2 and strat bombers from Hawaii (and it doesn’t matter whether it is a J1 or J2 declaration of war). That’s an 18 inf stack that doesn’t even have to attack, but can chill and defend for a long time while the US pumps bombers and harrasses the japanese to such an extent from Amur that any delaying strategies by Anzac and UK will inevitably cripple Japan. I don’t really see a path to victory for the Axis on the Pacific Map. Does anyone have any ideas beyond the initial moves, however nicely calculated with low losses they may be?
As to a J1 attack on the Philippines, it can maximally consist of:
3 inf, 2 art, 1 tank, 1 fig, 1 tac from Seazone 33 (no shore bombardment since there is a naval combat)
defense: 2 inf, 1 fig
This foregoes the Borneo move to deprive the UK of much-needed income but otherwise would mean only 4 land units land.
It’s completely normal that the US scores 1 or 2 hits. Meaning you have instead of the 6 or 4 land units, only 5 to 2 remaining available to hit Malaya J2, or again, or you have to sacrifce 1 or 2 airunits. Like the previous strategy, this complicates going for India again later similarly. Again, everything you lose as Japan along the way to India, doesn’t fight in India. So again, sacrificing 1 or 2 air units in the Philippines, and another 4 in Malaya MIGHT mean you have 6 land units available for the J3 strike on India, at the cost of ±50 to 60 IPC worth of planes. It’s likely there is a fleet in Seazone 38 in front of India, so no shore bombardment. Unless you also build a naval base adjacent to Seazone 36 on J2, no additional units can land in India. It’s a dicey proposition at best with competent UK buys (1 fig, 1 arm on UK1? 2 arm, 1 mech on UK1? 5 infs on UK1? then later 4 infs on UK2? they have the luxury to see what is coming of course).
