I follow your arguments there.
My feelings thus far are that the balance is very nearly there. I agree the Allies have an advantage, in much the same way the Axis has in the regular game. All the Allies have to do is to make sure the Axis doesn’t win.
The current unmodded version is essentially a race for resources, with the Allies losing more and more ground until they either reverse it, or tumble into nothingness. Now, it’s the Axis that risks becoming irrelevant. The Axis essentially cannot count on getting an IPC advantage and keeping it indefinitely. This means that playstyles need to change.
I don’t feel as strongly about this as Gamerman does, and from what I’ve seen the numbers don’t seem to bear out a clear Allied advantage. I’ve been playing with no bid - rather alternating sides with a given player - and it’s working for me.
I’m very meh about Vichy. The (minor) advantages take a bit too long to come into play, and it’s often very dicey creating the conditions before France’s first turn. But that could be a function of how my opponents and I play. Nothing wrong with it, but I don’t think it’s worth the effort for Germany to take Normandy round 1.
Overall, I am sold on this mod. I don’t ever intend to play without it at this point. It’s a clear and unambiguous improvement over the standard game. Kudos to you and the rest on the design team.