@Cow:
The belo+wr is problem. It gives up Caucasus which is even worse than Karelia.
No Cauc is a trap. G can’t hold it on G1. Russia leaves it empty. Then reclaims on R2. If UK doesn’t have pressing needs they can reclaim it for you with 1 inf, 1 ftr, 1 bom or some variation.
Russia doesn’t need 12 build slots so it’s okay to trade Cauc in rd 1.
The Russian open will be:
3 inf, 2 ftrs to Bel
9 inf, 3 rt, 4 arm to Wrus
Take Bel with 1-2 inf, take Wrus with 7 inf+
Placement of 7-8 units on Moscow (depending on your purchase). Move Eastern inf to Arch and Mos respectively. You can move 1 inf to Sze but I like the Alternative of 1 arm due to mobility.
On R2 you trade Bel/Ukr, take back Cauc with minimal inf and arm place 8 unit build in Mos.
At this point Cauc is closed off from Ger.
Any bid units would go to your Wrus stack. So a 9 bid would leave approx. 10 inf in Wrus.
Your rd 2 projected power (no bid)
Against Kar:
9 inf (2 from arch) , 3 rt, 4 arm, 2 ftrs (OP 36 - 18 units) 33 - 17 if you used an arm for cover in Sze.
Best Germany can do is:
6 inf, 4 arm That’s only DP of 24 - 10 units.
Might be a +/- unit or two in there, but Ger can’t go Heavy to Kar on G1.
Germany could try and stack Ukr heavy on G1 as a response, but they won’t be able to get past the Russian stack in Wrus and new units in Mos to actually hold Cauc. Maybe cauc gets deadzoned but Russia has the advantage b/c newly placed units are immediately at the front to prevent a G Cauc stack. Whereas with Karelia any new Russian inf/rt must first be moved to Wrus.
It would be interesting, but I wouldn’t want to risk opening up the North to the Allies. The US can get 4 units to Fin on US 3 and UK can follow in Rd 4. Then you might have to deal with all three Allies in Mos.
It might be better to just wait out Russia and take Kar first with Ger so you can cut off ground troop reinforcements.
Lots of options on both sides.