Well it is expected the axis hold Karelia and India by round 2 or 3. There is nothing the allies can do about it unless they get a 40 ipc bid. What can the allies take and hold in the first 3 rounds? Nothing. In this game the allies are screwed and have nothing to look forward to at all for the first 3 rounds. Then when they have enough forces to do an attack, the axis make the income the allies make and to make matters worse the axis start with more stuff and the axis took 2 industrial complexes away from the allies, making the positional map advantage even stronger.
Like I been doing 20 something bids for the allies and having no problems winning with the axis, it usually just goes into russia and russia has fun, I build 10-12 units a round (1 bomber 9-11 inf/arty) and eventually life is easy. Because with my air on france, I defend and I force the allies to invest so much into carriers and fighters that by the time they get enough transports to make a D day happen… Europe is already a fortress. If they go KJF, Japan makes more money than USA after round 3, Russia is a cakewalk (UK cannot build naval without USA help). It is just a really silly game.