Is Germany virtually guaranteed the odds G3 on sealion?

No. I am afraid not.
The US, Anzac or France could recapture it and claim the territory’s IPCs until London is liberated.

The one thing that stands out to me is that you lost half the Luftwaffe in your scenario (or maybe some planes just out of position helping Italy?). It is important to get a German ftr in S Italy to force the UK to go all in if she does Taronto (evacuate air units from London), but even if the UK still hits the Italian fleet I might not scramble all. The Royal Navy is a sitting duck afterwords, and axis can kill it off (maybe have Italy scramble, or not scramble and soften it up on Italy’s turn for the Germans to finish it off (w/less risk to Luftwaffe). The trade off is that Italy wouldn’t get the Med NO (if Germany finishes of the RN), because Italy still needs to hit the French in sz93 so they don’t escape.

If you are attempting a Sea Lion you have to have nearly all your air German force IMO (maybe be down 1-2 planes but surly not 6). I would never go into Sea Lion with odds under say 80%. Even at 80% you probably loose much of your air force in the attack and have only a couple land units left after taking London.

Shadow has some good advice for UK about moving the Med fleet to Gib (sz92), I like to call that the Castle Move (like in chess to protect the King/London). I would add that you should leave a destroyer back in sz94 as well to complete a block out of the Italian fleet (w/French fleet still in sz 93 of course) so that Italy/Germany can’t 1-2 punch you. This would also keep the Italians from getting the no ships in the Med NO.

One other thing to point out is that in your opening German move try to set-up a hit and run w/German BB on the UK Scottish fleet (SZ111). Send in your BB a sub or two and a couple planes (might even entice UK to scramble the Scottish ftr to kill it for less def of London). What you try to do is not kill the Brit BB, but damage it in a one round battle, then retreat your damaged German BB back to sz 112 where you should have your cruiser and air cover (maybe a carrier built). This move will force the UK to deal with your fleet in sz 112 (which forces them to forgo Taronto), or you keep your BB and it auto repairs on your next turn (back bone of the invasion fleet). If the hit and run works, you can easily kill the UK damaged BB on your next turn (has no naval base to help it get to safty/repair). Another tip is some of you German air force will probably need to land on Holland so make sure you protect them by moving your 3 AA guns over with them.

It’s all about preserving the Luftwaffe
Good luck WB

PS edit: I’m becoming a firm believer of a J1 attack. I know that the Germans will be uncomfortable, but you can do a lot of damage. Besides moving on China, J1 you invade FIC and Kwangtung (UK NO+ both are good places for a J2 IC). Take out the UK BB in sz37, and the US crap ships off both Hawaii and the Phil. Take Phil w/2 transports and air (US loses ftr and 5 IPC NO). To hit the Hawaiian fleet you should also take Wake isl (your 3rd transport from sz6). This allows you to hit the Hawaiian mini fleet with min loss (basically you risk a few planes and crap ships). You then position your loaded carriers + fleet off Wake so if the US does hit you, your planes can land safely (but they probably won’t). Like I said the Germans might not like it, but Japan is in great shape. J2 I think I would take Malaya (Anz NO) then take the all money islands on J3 with transports bought J1 etc….The US would get it’s war bonus, but will be weak on both sides and take several turns to get up to par. If the US goes heavy Atlantic, maybe Japan ends up smoking the Pac, and starts helping out in Russia, The Mid East/Africa…part of the Japanese air force in Europe? If US goes heavy Pac they have a lot of catching up to do, and Germany is golden.

You want better odds? Italy start with a bomber, bomb uk airbase for germany.

Not 100% sure, but I think I attacked the US sz26 (Haw) with 1ss, 2dd, 1cruiser, 2 frts, 2 tacs vs 1ss, 1dd, 1cruiser (possibility of 2 ftrs scrambling). He chose not to scramble, so I ended up with a dd and cruiser in sz26 (as a blocker), and a bb plus 2 loaded carriers off Wake. The thought was that I would take air units as causalities if he scrambled before my last surface ship so I could block out the San Fran fleet from hitting my Wake capital ships. I had more planes that could have flown to the carriers (which I think ended up going to Caroline Is as a deterrent?). I used my sz6 tpt to take Wake so I would be able to land my planes there if he tried a suicide fly-by on my Wake capital ships (take the first 3 hits w/o losing anything and land my planes on Wake).

The Phil fell pretty easy too, Japan has a lot of stuff at start. I think I used the Caroline carrier at Phil so I could get some air units in the land battle. So the US lost 1ss, 1dd, 1 cruiser 1 tpt at Haw, and 1ss, 1dd plus the 2inf and ftr at Phil. That sets them back in the Pac especially if they build for the Atlantic.

As far as the money islands, Japan only starts w/3 transports so you can’t get them all on J2 anyway (too far from sz6 for newly built tpts). J2 I took Malaya to stop the Anz No. I did buy 3 tpts J1 and invaded all the DEI on J3. In fact on J3 I had 6 transports (12 units) in range to land on Queensland (Anz backed off to NSW), but I decided it was best to go for the money islands.

Why is Japan not going to war? Makes it easier for the US to liberate UK, you dont want to do it right away anyway, but having less pressure in the pacific gives the US 2 rounds of freedom to get itself on london.

It is so much easier in the pacific for USA when all he has to do is build 2 subs 1 dd every round to keep japan down.

@Cow:

Why is Japan not going to war? Makes it easier for the US to liberate UK, you dont want to do it right away anyway, but having less pressure in the pacific gives the US 2 rounds of freedom to get itself on london.

It is so much easier in the pacific for USA when all he has to do is build 2 subs 1 dd every round to keep japan down.

How does the US keep Japan down with just 2 SS, 1 DD per turn?

Hey dondoolee,
a different approach could be:
G1 standard opening attacks, buy two bmbrs and arm.
G2 bomb London with all four bmbrs and stukas left
(AB and NB as well as the IC) buy two to three TT’s two bmbrs and art or arm plus a DD.
Block access from Gib with a DD placed after purchasing it.
G3 use now your invasing forces plus bmbrs and get London.
Favorable odds with combined Airpower.

BUT like knp7765 allready said…

@knp7765:

Hey dondoolee,
I think you are not taking something else into account. While Germany may have a good chance of achieving Sealion round 3 in most circumstances, just how good a victory will it be for them? In a lot of instances, it may be a pyrrhic victory for Germany. I mean, say Germany takes London but only has a tank and a few planes left over. Sure they get to plunder London’s treasury, but like calvinhobbesliker said they will be weak on the continent and Russia will just be licking it’s chops.
I used to enjoy doing Sealion but in later games I rarely do that because unless everything goes right for Germany (no planes lost, good dice), it usually costs them too much so they lose in the long run.

In the end it cost you. You will figure it out after the battle is over how much exactly.
Every Ftr, Bmbr,stuka etc you loose will be missed on the russian soil.
And Russia will come after you!

AeV

Just as a rules clarification for this, if Germany does Sealion, Russia’s not allowed to attack unless Germany is successful at taking London, right? Otherwise Russia isn’t allowed to attack until round 4?

@madscientist:

Just as a rules clarification for this, if Germany does Sealion, Russia’s not allowed to attack unless Germany is successful at taking London, right? Otherwise Russia isn’t allowed to attack until round 4?

Correct. London must fall.

@dondoolee:

Germany buys 1 AC and all transports (total of 12).

12 transports on G3.  All that economy (11 transports purchased) over two turns almost guarantees a successful sea lion.  And it almost guarantees you will lose the war.  Sure you’ll get all that money from the UK, but it cost you 88 IPCs to do it.

I am just a newbie but I don’t think you are asking the right question.  The question you should be asking is this: what is the minimum amount of Germany transport navy purchased that is needed to get a 51% success rate of sea lion on G3?  That is the question.  I think spending 88 IPCs on helpless US bomber targets as the Soviets roll over your entirely depleted Eastern front, isn’t worth taking the UK out for two turns.

@innocentbystander:

@dondoolee:

Germany buys 1 AC and all transports (total of 12).

12 transports on G3.  All that economy (11 transports purchased) over two turns almost guarantees a successful sea lion.  And it almost guarantees you will lose the war.  Sure you’ll get all that money from the UK, but it cost you 88 IPCs to do it.

I am just a newbie but I don’t think you are asking the right question.  The question you should be asking is this: what is the minimum amount of Germany transport navy purchased that is needed to get a 51% success rate of sea lion on G3?  That is the question.  I think spending 88 IPCs on helpless US bomber targets as the Soviets roll over your entirely depleted Eastern front, isn’t worth taking the UK out for two turns.

According to my calculations, Germany can just barely pull off a G2 Sealion, which would be more ideal.

Ger starts with 5 ftrs and 5 tac bombers and 2 bombers. Assuming Ger only loses 2 ftrs and the rest subs on G1, they will be in a good position on G2.

G1 purchase: 4 trn (28 IPC’s).

When taking out the Royal Navy, they may scramble fighters. But this isn’t so bad, because the fighters may then be lost in the naval battle. If UK scrambles fighters, then lose ftr for ftr. Then there will be less defending London. Save the battleship!

Use subs in sz 117 and sz 118 to take out the Canadian des and trn so UK can’t reinforce with Canadian troops.

Place all 4 trn with 1 trn that you start with in sz 113 with the cru and battleship you start with. You need the battleship there to protect the trn from the UK bmb. Position troops and tanks to load onto trns next turn.

UK1: UK builds 9 inf, moves ftr from Gibraltar to London, moves Scotland units to London.

If UK blocks the Ger navy with the cru from sz 91, take it out with Italian ftrs and bmb.

Thus, on G2, attack!

UK should have in London (if they didn’t scramble ftrs)
15 inf, 1 mech inf
1 bmb
5 ftrs
for a total defense of 53

Ger should be attacking with (if they only lost 1 ftr to AAA)
5 inf
5 tanks
2 ftrs
5 tac bombers
2 bmb
for a total attack of 54
plus Ger gets a cru and battleship bombardment.

Thus Ger should barely win a G2 Sealion.

Well, Britain begins with 6 inf, 1 mech, 5 AAA, 4 ftr, 1 strat. Let’s assume the UK buys 6 inf, 1 fighter and does Taranto, removing the bomber and a fighter. Then, after UK1, London will contain 12 inf, 1 mech, 5 AAA, 4 ftr and collects 33, allowing a build of 9 inf, 1 tank for a total of 21 inf, 1 mech, 1 tank, 5 AAA, 4 ftr. We’ll assume Germany sinks the Canadian ships and so the Canadians can’t reinforce London.

Against this, if Germany brings in its 12 planes plus 9 loaded transports (inf+tank), that gives about a 50/50 shot at London. The odds only slightly decrease if 3 tanks are changed to art (since Germany will have 6 tanks in Paris, and its other 3 tanks in the East somewhere). However, Germany will need to divert planes to prevent a scramble against the landing, since a BB+CC aren’t likely to defeat 3 defending fighters. Furthermore, you probably want a greater than 50/50 shot if you’re going to risk so much money…

@madscientist:

@innocentbystander:

@dondoolee:

Germany buys 1 AC and all transports (total of 12).

12 transports on G3.  All that economy (11 transports purchased) over two turns almost guarantees a successful sea lion.  And it almost guarantees you will lose the war.  Sure you’ll get all that money from the UK, but it cost you 88 IPCs to do it.

I am just a newbie but I don’t think you are asking the right question.  The question you should be asking is this: what is the minimum amount of Germany transport navy purchased that is needed to get a 51% success rate of sea lion on G3?  That is the question.  I think spending 88 IPCs on helpless US bomber targets as the Soviets roll over your entirely depleted Eastern front, isn’t worth taking the UK out for two turns.

According to my calculations, Germany can just barely pull off a G2 Sealion, which would be more ideal.

Ger starts with 5 ftrs and 5 tac bombers and 2 bombers. Assuming Ger only loses 2 ftrs and the rest subs on G1, they will be in a good position on G2.

G1 purchase: 4 trn (28 IPC’s).

When taking out the Royal Navy, they may scramble fighters. But this isn’t so bad, because the fighters may then be lost in the naval battle. If UK scrambles fighters, then lose ftr for ftr. Then there will be less defending London. Save the battleship!

Use subs in sz 117 and sz 118 to take out the Canadian des and trn so UK can’t reinforce with Canadian troops.

Place all 4 trn with 1 trn that you start with in sz 113 with the cru and battleship you start with. You need the battleship there to protect the trn from the UK bmb. Position troops and tanks to load onto trns next turn.

UK1: UK builds 9 inf, moves ftr from Gibraltar to London, moves Scotland units to London.

If UK blocks the Ger navy with the cru from sz 91, take it out with Italian ftrs and bmb.

Thus, on G2, attack!

UK should have in London (if they didn’t scramble ftrs)
15 inf, 1 mech inf
1 bmb
5 ftrs
for a total defense of 53

Ger should be attacking with (if they only lost 1 ftr to AAA)
5 inf
5 tanks
2 ftrs
5 tac bombers
2 bmb
for a total attack of 54
plus Ger gets a cru and battleship bombardment.

Thus Ger should barely win a G2 Sealion.

You forgot the 5 British AAA, which reduce your chances to 1.5%.

@calvinhobbesliker:

You forgot the 5 British AAA, which reduce your chances to 1.5%.

Are you sure? According to the 2nd edition rules, you don’t roll more AAA dice than the number of aircraft. page 29.

@madscientist:

@calvinhobbesliker:

You forgot the 5 British AAA, which reduce your chances to 1.5%.

Are you sure? According to the 2nd edition rules, you don’t roll more AAA dice than the number of aircraft. page 29.

Yes, but they can be used as cannon fodder before the infantry die. And since they’re likely to kill 1-2 planes, Germany’s hit points are suddenly lower than the UK’s.

@madscientist:

@innocentbystander:

@dondoolee:

Germany buys 1 AC and all transports (total of 12).

12 transports on G3.  All that economy (11 transports purchased) over two turns almost guarantees a successful sea lion.  And it almost guarantees you will lose the war.  Sure you’ll get all that money from the UK, but it cost you 88 IPCs to do it.

I am just a newbie but I don’t think you are asking the right question.  The question you should be asking is this: what is the minimum amount of Germany transport navy purchased that is needed to get a 51% success rate of sea lion on G3?  That is the question.  I think spending 88 IPCs on helpless US bomber targets as the Soviets roll over your entirely depleted Eastern front, isn’t worth taking the UK out for two turns.

According to my calculations, Germany can just barely pull off a G2 Sealion, which would be more ideal.

Ger starts with 5 ftrs and 5 tac bombers and 2 bombers. Assuming Ger only loses 2 ftrs and the rest subs on G1, they will be in a good position on G2.

G1 purchase: 4 trn (28 IPC’s).

When taking out the Royal Navy, they may scramble fighters. But this isn’t so bad, because the fighters may then be lost in the naval battle. If UK scrambles fighters, then lose ftr for ftr. Then there will be less defending London. Save the battleship!

Use subs in sz 117 and sz 118 to take out the Canadian des and trn so UK can’t reinforce with Canadian troops.

Place all 4 trn with 1 trn that you start with in sz 113 with the cru and battleship you start with. You need the battleship there to protect the trn from the UK bmb. Position troops and tanks to load onto trns next turn.

UK1: UK builds 9 inf, moves ftr from Gibraltar to London, moves Scotland units to London.

If UK blocks the Ger navy with the cru from sz 91, take it out with Italian ftrs and bmb.

Thus, on G2, attack!

UK should have in London (if they didn’t scramble ftrs)
15 inf, 1 mech inf
1 bmb
5 ftrs
for a total defense of 53

Ger should be attacking with (if they only lost 1 ftr to AAA)
5 inf
5 tanks
2 ftrs
5 tac bombers
2 bmb
for a total attack of 54
plus Ger gets a cru and battleship bombardment.

Thus Ger should barely win a G2 Sealion.

you should really use a battlesim. You are forgetting the value of hitpoints.
If we forget about the AAs then the germans have a total of 19 units, while the british have 22 units.

The number of units you have is much more important than the number of battledice you have.

Running the battle on a battle sim gives germnay about 2% (1-3%) chance of winning.

adding the AAs as well, and the picture is even grimmer. between 0.2 and 1.6 % of winning.

One thing that might suprise you is the value of volume. If you have 12 ftrs defending a terr and I attack with only infs. I only need about 24 infs to have a 50% odds of killing all of the fighters. To see why the 2-1 ratio is correct, we can do an easy calculation.
round 1.
the fighters have 124/6 hits = 8 hits on the infs.
The infs have 241/6 hits = 4 hits on the fighters.
that means that the fighters lost 4/12 = 1/3 figters.
the infs lost 8/28 = 1/3 infs.
Which means that both sides lost and equal percentage of their fightingpower.

The actual formula for thse kinds of battles where pure infs attacks a pure force is:
inf vs inf sqrt(1) to Sqrt(2) -> 1,41 infs attacking per inf defending
Inf v tanks : Sqrt(1) to sqrt(3) –> 1.7 infs attacking per tank defending.

In axis volume is king.

I suppose the best way to do Sealion is if it’s a surprise. i.e. buy 2 bombers and 2 inf on G1 and move land units east to make it look like you’re going after Russia, so the UK player spends their first round money on sea units, then on G2 spend all your France loot on transports and attack London in G3.

Of course, the second time you do this your opponent will see it and build 9 inf in London on UK1. But then you just go after Russia!

@madscientist:

I suppose the best way to do Sealion is if it’s a surprise. i.e. buy 2 bombers and 2 inf on G1 and move land units east to make it look like you’re going after Russia, so the UK player spends their first round money on sea units, then on G2 spend all your France loot on transports and attack London in G3.

Of course, the second time you do this your opponent will see it and build 9 inf in London on UK1. But then you just go after Russia!

I would think that most UK players will always start UK1 by counting the number of units germany can have for a G3 seaslion. Then buy 9 infs every time. (Unless germany for some reason lost its navy in G1 and the british one is intact)