Dice or Low Luck??

I have abs. no idea why someone would want to play a “simplistic, unrealistic” style wargame (which to me, AxA is the paragon of) and then eliminate luck.

Do you guys not see that the brilliance of AxA in the first place is the d6 system it pioneered?  It is a reaction to years, decades (1960-1985) of overcomplicated and equally silly debates about balance, luck, strategy etc (see Avalon hill wargames) that are much more easily resolved by simply playing the game more often and playing a variety of games that do not all have the same disadvantages (unplayably long, high learning curve, poor balance) etc.

d6 is a simple system and as you can see, entire unit types (tactical bomber, cruiser) are pretty much just upcosted variants of existing units.  The entire game worked fairly well with 2 ground types 2 air types and 3 sea types for 15 years.

It is also a really bad system (for randomness, realism, flexibility, variability, pricing, balance etc.), as it breaks the entire odds system down to a dice rolling mash up (%16 is the smallest available chance to the designer).  d8 and other systems are far superior, but they are more complicated and not usually for the better (see old Warhammer 40K).

Now, I like rolling dice well enough, but the elephant in the room here is the concept of “Regression to the Mean/Odds” that no one has mentioned.  This principle states that when you roll small numbers of dice, there is a greater chance of anomalous or unusual results, but when you roll tons and tons of dice, the results will tend to be much more averaged over time and will appear more like the calculated odds.

This in my mind is why this is an absolutely silly debate;  Larry knows about this concept.  Small battles tend to be capricious.  Large battles tend towards the averages.  THAT IS AN INTEGRAL PART OF THE GAME.

The idea that you would want to play a game that is “simplistic and unrealistic” and then eliminate luck or chance is simply silly.  Go acquire other games that do not have such a basic or capricious style of combat system, play them (subsequently,  get annoyed at tracking minutiae and arguing about rules) and then come back to AxA!

Many games do not accept that random luck should determine much about the outcome of a battle at all.  Warhammer 40K is a great example;  you roll absolutely tons of dice, over multiple phases, but the result is always the same–weak units cannot damage strong ones and teams with high average skills dominate the numerically large teams.  d6 does not provide enough flexibility to keep that game random or simple, and the creators refuse to address this ultimately fatal problem that compromises the rules and play.

Don’t make the same mistake with “beer and pretzels” games like AxA.    We shouldn’t be calculating odds at this point–I can see whether I have a high or low chance of victory at a glance.    I also do not need to discuss classic or ‘perfect’ openers–we have discussed these to death and the only thing that creates any variability or uncertainty at all in the outcome of the game is…

Luck.

Game 94(G40) 12/6/15  woohoo!!

If I had to choose it would be dice because a dice game is more complex and dynamic.  Dice games require more thought and deliberation.

On the other hand sometimes I prefer a low luck game when I want a pure strategy game, like chess.  If my goal is to test out the efficacy of a strategy, I will likely learn more from a low luck game than a dice game.

Low luck changes the flow of the game in a way the player needs to be aware of.  There are tactical options in low luck that aren’t available in dice and vice versa. However, strategies that work in low luck tend to adapt well to dice games, as long as the player is experienced in dice games and ready for the variability of dice.

OK, here’s a stab at CWO’s Low Luck / Med Luck / High Luck idea. You pick a stance for all your units at the beginning of each of your turns, when placing reinforcements, and then you’re stuck with that stance for all battles and units until the start of your next turn. First number is offense, Second number is defense. As in OOB, must roll the target number or lower to score a hit.

Low Luck (roll d4s for all units)

Infantry 1*/2 (+1 offense w/ artillery)
Artillery 1/2
Tanks 2/2
Fighters 1/3
Bombers 3/1
Subs 1/1 (sneak attack on offense, submerges unless blocked 1:1 by destroyers)
DD 1/2
CA 2/2 (bombards)
BB 2/3 (bombards, 2 hit to kill)
CV 1/1 (2 hit to kill)

Medium Luck (roll d6s, same as OOB)

Infantry 1*/2 (+1 offense with artillery)
Artillery 2/2
Tank 3/3
Fighter 3/4
Bomber 4/1
Subs 2/1 (sneak attack and submerge unless stopped by 1 or more DDs)
DD 2/2
CA 3/3 (bombards)
BB 4/4 (bombards, 2-hit to kill)
CV 1/2

High Luck (roll d8s)

Infantry 1*/3 (+1 offense w/ artillery)
Artillery 3/2
Tank 4/2 (scores two casualties on a roll of 1)
Fighter 3/5
Bomber 5/1 (scores two casualties on a roll of 1)
Subs 3/1 (sneak attack unless stopped by DD, no submerge)
DD 2/3
CA 3/3 (bombards, scores two casualties on a roll of 1)
BB 5/5 (bombards, two-hits to kill)
CV 1/1 (two hits to kill; on a roll of one, repairs itself mid-battle)

Low luck is for crybaby’s.

There are No Gaurantees in War, LL provides guarantees which shouldn’t be there.

whats the point in playing a dice game if your not gonna play it right.

Low luck takes away a lot of the fun and Borderline attacks or defenses.
Hailmary plays are taken away completely., the game is just not meant to be played this way.

I have yet to buy a A&A game that comes with Low Luck calculators or charts.

Agreed ShadowHAwk. Dice vs. LL to me is more a matter of where you are in your personal life.

As a younger man, LL was absurd to me - what’s the point? Variability adds an element to every game that is unpredictable, to allow for far more outcomes and deep game strategies to develop. You have to think on the fly, rather than play by rote.

However! As an older man, with a family and way more responsibility, the entire dynamic shifts. If I can play all the time, who cares if a game goes fifteen incredible rounds and then someone gets diced? You get over the sting by playing another game quickly. But, if carving out the time to play is in and of itself a chore, getting diced late game becomes horrible.

So far a time-deprived old man like me, LL becomes a necessary component to avoid a deep frustration, when I can only dedicate myself to a certain amount of gaming.

This was a really tough choice and is a tough choice every time I play. Dice makes things so much more fun but nobody likes losing because of dice. Forget the rolling part of it(unless you you don’t shake your rolls enough which I will gladly point out) it’s all about gameplay. Having dice makes things more interesting, nerve-racking, different every time, and strategicly engrossing. Of course there are bad parts such as extending an already long game, losing when your stratehy was better, and getting your blood pressure up(lol).
So what did I pick? Dice. Why?  Well a few months ago I would say low luck but after playing dozens of games I notticed low Luck was doing something terrible! It was making things repetitive and I was getting bored of the alltime greatest game! So dice it is(I still think that no one shakes their rolls properly)

Good point. Most of you play online for the most part, but I have a real game set up 24/7 always ready to be played. I never played online.

I totally agree.

Methods for determining combat results in wargame are either human-based or system-based or some combination thereof.

In the purely human-based method (which tends to be seen more in professional military games rather than recreational ones), the referee or game director decides the outcomes based on his judgment and/or on the learning objectives of the exercise; basically, he functions as a controlling deity.

In the purely system-based method, the outcome gets determined by a mechanism which is built into the rules and over which there is no human control.  (Rolling dice, by the way, isn’t human control; it’s human action, but as long as nobody’s cheating it’s not human control.)

There are many potential types of combination methods, but generally they start with a mechanism-determined tentative outcome and then submit it to some kind of human-influenced modification.

Now let’s disregard the purely human-based methods and the human-influenced combination systems, and go back to the purely system-based methods that I mentioned.  Fundamentally, there are only two types of system methods: deterministic and random.  In a deterministic system, the same inputs will always lead to the same pre-determined outcome.  There is no chance involved.  An example would be a professional game in which casualties are calculated according to tables, with the inputs being (for example) large-scale force ratios.  To completely make up an example, a division-sized force of, let’s say 10,000 men will always suffer (let’s say) 2% casualties when confronted with enemy of force of the same size and composition, and will always suffer (let’s say) percentage casualties four times higher when an enemy force of the same composition but twice as large.  (These aren’t real numbers; I’m just making the point that in such pure systems, Force X doing battle under Condition Y will always end up with Outcome Z.)

If a system-based method isn’t deterministic, then it’s random.  I’m not sure there’s anything located between “deterministic” and “random”; I think it’s more correct to view the choice as a two-step one: deciding whether the system should be deterministic or random, and then (if the choice was to go with “random”) deciding how random one wants it to be.  It can be random within a very narrow and simple range of possible outcomes (“heads or tails” being as narrow and simple as you can get), or random within a broader and/or more complex range of possibilities.  One die versus two dice illustrates the difference between range and complexity.  One die (6 outcomes, each with a 16.7% chance) has more range than a coin toss (2 outcomes, each with a 50% chance), but not much more complexity because all the outcomes are equally probable in both cases.  Two dice, however, not only increase the range but also the complexity, because the chances for each possible result (ranging from 2 to 12) are distributed along a bell curve rather than a straight line.

Let me tell you this straight. Using a deterministic system, there is no way to historically correct reenact crazy battle outcomes like the Japanese attack on Singapore, the Italian attack on Egypt, the German attack on France, or the German attack on Norway, the Russian attack on Finland, etc etc. WWII history teach us that the random outcome is the natural one. Leaders that suddenly surrender because they got surprised or by lack of moral and fighting spirit, have a bigger impact to the battle than pure number of men.

IMHO, if you are a real man, gambler and wargamer, with a strong military power fantasy you urge to play out in your basement, then ditch the lame LowLuck, and go straight for the random dice. If you fear the dice, then A&A is not for you.

:-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :wink:

A big + to SS for being supportive

Could I get one of those if I show authentic tacit support?
:-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :wink:

No, it need to be blatant.

And please, lets not derail this thread further

I am new to playing on TripleA, but I noticed that “normal” dice on TripleA doesn’t seem to be so normal. I often see 3 @ 1 getting 1 hit or 2 hits way more often then when actually throwing dice on a table top. This seems to occur often when it’s more important like AAA during a S Bombing Raid. On table top I prefer normal dice. But on TripleA, I’m starting to like the LL dice option more.

Sometimes I think the TripleA “normal” dice is even worse than LL. Any thoughts and or agreement on this.