Depends on game pieces somewhat. Played 50 hbg 39 games and only once did Germany not take Paris turn 1. France rolled 98% defense hits. Some other results close but was based on more or less Germany didn’t bring enough.
If that is what your looking for.
Can Russia build ships in sz 100 and then move through the straight?
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Or do you have to own Turkey?
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The Allies have to control Turkey at the beginning of the Russian turn for Russia to move ships through the Straits.
Also, according to the rule book: “If a canal or narrow strait is controlled by a power not on your side, but with which you are not yet at war, you must ask permission to use it, which may be denied.”
So in a very theoretical situation, Germany could capture Turkey before being at war with Russia, and allow Russian ships to pass through the Straights. But I don’t think that ever happens.