Threshold for making a viable SBR against interceptors?

baron Münchhausen

Thanks for the infos Wittmann.

So, if you were playing against yourself, there gonna be no air battle.
Whether the attacker will be too strong too intercept or the defender will have too much planes to dare an SBR.
Is that a correct implication from what you said?

Witt

Put like that; I think so. The point is, the defender can’t usually afford to lose a Ft (Russia), as will be needed for defence of the capital.
I am sure most think like I do.

knp7765

I agree with you wittmann. I rarely use interceptors as I have found it to be a waste of fighters. Too often I see those attacking bombers get that lucky “1” and blasting my defending fighters out of the sky. In fact, I still remember one game where Germany sent in 4 bombers to SBR Moscow. Russia had 5 fighters so we said “Let’s intercept”. The Russian fighters got 1 bomber while Germany knocked out 3 Russian fighters! I can’t help but think those extra 4 rollers could have made a difference in the battle for Moscow a couple of rounds later.

baron Münchhausen

@knp7765:

I agree with you wittmann. I rarely use interceptors as I have found it to be a waste of fighters. Too often I see those attacking bombers get that lucky “1” and blasting my defending fighters out of the sky. In fact, I still remember one game where Germany sent in 4 bombers to SBR Moscow. Russia had 5 fighters so we said “Let’s intercept”. The Russian fighters got 1 bomber while Germany knocked out 3 Russian fighters! I can’t help but think those extra 4 rollers could have made a difference in the battle for Moscow a couple of rounds later.

And since this time, you are even reluctant to intercept even at a 4:5 ratio for defenders?

So a 1 StB:1 Fg is clearly not a good ratio for defender, right?

barney

Basically I never intercept. If Bombers were 0 and Fighters 1 then it would at least force the attacker to send more escorts, or maybe not force but encourage. IDK. I still like the idea of a scrambled fighter reducing a bombers dice roll by two on a 1:1 basis to encourage scrambling. Right now why do it unless you have the advantage?

Gargantua

Yeah, the bombers at 1 really sucks - they should be 0.

Unless I have some advantage in numbers, it seems like intercepting is only giving the attacker more opportunity to damage your force where it counts.

But it all depends on what’s going on in game… and if scrambling that fighter could mean allowing the Russians to place more units - maybe you do it. High risk game of Russian roulette.

ItIsILeClerc

Having a lot of FTR interceptors somewhere doesn’t necessarily mean you are going to use them.
For example, if France, UK and maybe even ANZAC all have FTR in Moscow, Germany will be forced to either send in escorts with their bombers, or don’t raid Moscow at all. Escorting German FTR are aicraft not used against the allies in the west.

I 'd intercept if I can deal equal or more ‘economic’ damage than I expect to suffer, OR if the military situation gets better for me because of the intercept.
Continuing the example of allied FTR in Moscow: let’s say I can expect to hit 2 German planes during the intercept battle and the SBR consist of 5FTR + 7Bombers, they can also expect to hit 2 allied planes (no Russians, ofc). So both sides loose 2FTR (=20damage ‘economically’). The bombers will not have the option of not bombing, so Russian AA-fire has another 7 shots (expecting 1, maybe 2 hits). Let’s say 1 bomber is hit. German suffered a total ‘economic’ damage of 20+12=32, while Allies suffers a total economic damage of 20+20=40. 8 more than Germany.
Compared however to not intercepting it is much better, because A) Germany lost 3 planes (1 more than the allies) and B) if there was no interception, Russia would have suffered 8 more damage than Germany as well (20 on the IC versus 12 of a shot down Bomber). If Germany looses as much or more aircraft than the allies, this is always a good thing and the more the better. To Moscow it matters a little bit, but to the allies in the West it mattes much more.

The last thing to consider is purely tactical: what is your goal with the aircraft involved and can you still do it if loosing a few during an intercept battle. If Germany is aiming to assault Moscow, loosing a few aircraft while SBRing London may be a bad idea and vice versa. 1 unit more or less can make a shitload of difference during the ‘final battle’, especially units as heavy as bombers or FTR.

For conducting SBRs, I have the same considerations, ofc.
These examples may be extremes but let’s say I always compare intercepting with not intercepting and the obvious choice usually emerges from that comparison.

Dafyd

I have brought this up once before but our play group are testing a change to the escort vs interceptor rule. The air combat is still one round but we have left the attack and defend values at the normal oob levels. Three (3) for the escorting fighters and four (4) for the defending interceptors. Scrambling fighters defend at a four (4), why not the intercepting fighters? I never saw the logic in lowering the attack/defend levels of the these units in this particular type of battle. It makes the SRB a bit more challenging when you want to hit a territory with and air base and protecting fighters. We also kept the bombers defense shot at a one (1). Bombers did shoot or tear up some fighters through the coarse of the war. So far, we have not run into any shifts of power because of the house rule. SPR’s are not an after thought any more. Now we plan to make these attacks and prepare for these battles.

calvinhobbesliker

@Dafyd:

I have brought this up once before but our play group are testing a change to the escort vs interceptor rule. The air combat is still one round but we have left the attack and defend values at the normal oob levels. Three (3) for the escorting fighters and four (4) for the defending interceptors. Scrambling fighters defend at a four (4), why not the intercepting fighters? I never saw the logic in lowering the attack/defend levels of the these units in this particular type of battle. It makes the SRB a bit more challenging when you want to hit a territory with and air base and protecting fighters. We also kept the bombers defense shot at a one (1). Bombers did shoot or tear up some fighters through the coarse of the war. So far, we have not run into any shifts of power because of the house rule. SPR’s are not an after thought any more. Now we plan to make these attacks and prepare for these battles.

Do raiding bombers still attack at 4 in your house rule?

ghr2

The idea is to deter bombing runs, not to fight them off unless u have great odds or u can more easily replace.

Dafyd

Calvinhobbesliker, Yes. Bombers still attack at a four (4) during the SBR but defend at a one (1) during the escort/interceptor phase of the SBR.

ghr2, exactly. We have learned to prepare for an SBR because the interceptor responce threat is very real. As a defender, you want to make sure that you have at least one interceptor available as a deterent to an opponent making an SBR on your territory. As the attacker, you have to plan to make the run. Bombers can out distance their escorts so now you have to make sure that you have a secured landing facility near you targets if you want escorts to go with your bombers. The intercepter threat is very real when it defends at a four (4). I have not taken the time to calculate the odds as Baron is so good at but in our actual game trials, the battles have gone both ways but generally for the defender. The SRB is still viable but must be planned for.

baron Münchhausen

@ItIsILeClerc:

Having a lot of FTR interceptors somewhere doesn’t necessarily mean you are going to use them.
For example, if France, UK and maybe even ANZAC all have FTR in Moscow, Germany will be forced to either send in escorts with their bombers, or don’t raid Moscow at all. Escorting German FTR are aicraft not used against the allies in the west.

I 'd intercept if I can deal equal or more ‘economic’ damage than I expect to suffer, OR if the military situation gets better for me because of the intercept.
Continuing the example of allied FTR in Moscow: let’s say I can expect to hit 2 German planes during the intercept battle and the SBR consist of 5FTR + 7Bombers, they can also expect to hit 2 allied planes (no Russians, ofc). So both sides loose 2FTR (=20damage ‘economically’). The bombers will not have the option of not bombing, so Russian AA-fire has another 7 shots (expecting 1, maybe 2 hits). Let’s say 1 bomber is hit. German suffered a total ‘economic’ damage of 20+12=32, while Allies suffers a total economic damage of 20+20=40. 8 more than Germany.
Compared however to not intercepting it is much better, because A) Germany lost 3 planes (1 more than the allies) and B) if there was no interception, Russia would have suffered 8 more damage than Germany as well (20 on the IC versus 12 of a shot down Bomber). If Germany looses as much or more aircraft than the allies, this is always a good thing and the more the better. To Moscow it matters a little bit, but to the allies in the West it mattes much more.

The last thing to consider is purely tactical: what is your goal with the aircraft involved and can you still do it if loosing a few during an intercept battle. If Germany is aiming to assault Moscow, loosing a few aircraft while SBRing London may be a bad idea and vice versa. 1 unit more or less can make a shitload of difference during the ‘final battle’, especially units as heavy as bombers or FTR.

For conducting SBRs, I have the same considerations, ofc.
These examples may be extremes but let’s say I always compare intercepting with not intercepting and the obvious choice usually emerges from that comparison.

If I follow your numbers, on a 1:1 ratio, you will do interception, right?

7 Germans’ bombers + 5 fighters against 12 Allied Fighters

Average Dogfight result: (121/6=) 2 Fighters lost (20 IPCs) against (121/6=) 2 Fighters (20 IPCs)
IC’s AA gun average results: (7*1/6=) 1 StB lost (12 IPCs)
Average damage on IC: 6* (1D6+2) avg 5.5 IPCs = 33 IPCs.

So, on average, Russia lose 53 IPCs while Germany lose 32 IPCs.
53 - 32 = balance: - 21 IPCs lost for Russia

If no intercept:
2) IC’s AA gun average results: (71/6=) 1 StB lost (12 IPCs)
3) Average damage on IC: 6 (1D6+2) avg 5.5 IPCs = 33 IPCs.
On average, Russia lose 33 IPCs - 12 IPCs for German’s bomber.
33 - 12 = balance: -21 IPCs lost for Russia.

It is the same results from either side.
However, I didn’t get the same results as your calculation.

Do you see why?

Compared however to not intercepting it is much better, because A) Germany lost 3 planes (1 more than the allies) and B) if there was no interception, Russia would have suffered 8 more damage than Germany as well (20 on the IC versus 12 of a shot down Bomber).

baron Münchhausen

@ghr2:

The idea is to deter bombing runs, not to fight them off unless u have great odds or u can more easily replace.

I was asking to better learn what can make it happen somehow.
SBR is an interesting historical depiction of air battle but it seems that the OOB SBR rules are more a deterrent than an incentive to make it. When attacker is ready to do it, a defender’s optimal play will not intercept, because the odds are always against him.

How this can become a viable tactics, so dogfights happen more often (because both sides see some benefits in it)?, that is my ultimate aim.
But for now, I’m just asking to better understand the usual behaviour on that matter.

So, my question to you is: when do you know there is not enough Fighters on an IC’S TT to make a good deterrent, and you would attack such IC with an SBR run?

baron Münchhausen

@Gargantua:

Yeah, the bombers at 1 really sucks - they should be 0.

Unless I have some advantage in numbers, it seems like intercepting is only giving the attacker more opportunity to damage your force where it counts.

But it all depends on what’s going on in game… and if scrambling that fighter could mean allowing the Russians to place more units - maybe you do it. High risk game of Russian roulette.

I was thinking along the same way.
To create an incentive to intercept bombers, they shouldn’t have an attack factor.
That way, intercepting Fighters, even in small numbers, wouldn’t be afraid to try to destroy some bombers.
This would be a more typical behaviour for a WWII inspirational Wargame:

Sir, the enemy’s bomber wings are on their way to carpet bomb our industries!
Stay on the ground lieutenant and let them pass over us: it is too dangerous to loose our precious Fighters! :roll:

Do you consider Tactical bombers being in the same category as Strategic bombers, attacking @0?
Or should they stay @1 like Fighters?

ItIsILeClerc

@Baron:

(…) It is the same results from either side.
However, I didn’t get the same results as your calculation.

Do you see why?
(…)

Yes, in your calculation, there is no limit in how much damage can be done to an IC. If you would send 20 bombers, you would deal 20*5.5=110 damage to the IC.

Have I passed the test, dear sir ;-)?
EDIT: before I forget, I guess you are right about that 1:1 ratio. barring a few exeptions.

baron Münchhausen

@ItIsILeClerc:

@Baron:

(…) It is the same results from either side.
However, I didn’t get the same results as your calculation.

Do you see why?
(…)

Yes, in your calculation, there is no limit in how much damage can be done to an IC. If you would send 20 bombers, you would deal 20*5.5=110 damage to the IC.

Have I passed the test, dear sir ;-)?

I completely forgot that point, thanks! :-)

So in your example, 7 Strategic bombers are a complete overkill.
You need to be very unlucky, either being AA guns down or a very weak damage roll, to not get the 20 IPCs maximum damage.

If there is an Airbase, this could add a virtual 6 IPCs, max.
And a Naval Base would rise this up to 20+6+6= 32 IPCs
That would be the real possible maximum damage.

ItIsILeClerc

Yes, those 7 bombers are definately a complete overkill.
Understanding the SBR-dynamics, Germany would have to send in ~12 aircraft to compete with ~12 interceptors, or not raid at all in this example. Otherwise they are asking for lucky die rolls to prevent shooting in their own foot.

You can calculate the most likely damage for both sides if the interceptor has 12 FTR and the SBRing side only sends in 4Bombers +2FTR. Most likely the attacker will loose 2FTR + 1Bomber (32 damage), while the defender will suffer 27 damage (1FTR + 16,5 on the IC rounding up).
You are right ofc, about the AB also contributing to the damage. I didn’t take that into account because I forgot it, but it matters only for major powers that will have to repair any damaged AB and/or NB (not Russia in this example).

But like I said, this is only considering economics. There is also the military situation. The attacker has to be sure it can achieve its goals with its leftover aircraft and so does the defender, ofc…

baron Münchhausen

@wittmann:

Afternoon Baron.
I would never intercept, if I had fewer planes than the attacker, unless he had no Fts in the battle and I could afford to lose (could replace) my losses.
As the agressor, I would also ensure I had a Ft to lose, if the defender had Fts which could intercept and would like 2 or 3 more planes than him.
As a rule, I don’t intercept, as the attacker can usually accompany his Bombers, with the canon fodder Fighters.
The new rules make it a raw deal for the defender. I do not like the change from Anniversary and 42, which saw the 2 in defence become a measly 1 in 1940.

@Gargantua:

Yeah, the bombers at 1 really sucks - they should be 0.

Unless I have some advantage in numbers, it seems like intercepting is only giving the attacker more opportunity to damage your force where it counts.

But it all depends on what’s going on in game… and if scrambling that fighter could mean allowing the Russians to place more units - maybe you do it. High risk game of Russian roulette.

Both comments makes me think about a way to improve the actual system by increasing the compelling advantage of intercepting (while increasing the reward when there is no interceptor) with the basic attack and defense factor @1.
Here is below a quote from a thread I just started in HR about a slightly different values for Strategic bombers, Tactical and Fighters:

@Baron:

Down below here is a small variant from the above SBR HR for Global 1940
That is my preferred ones, since it is nearer OOB odds.
In this case, both attacking Fighters and Tactical Bombers have a small First Strike advantage over defending Fighter.
However, Strategic Bombers are still defenseless against interceptors.

In this variant, it should be assumed that Tactical bombers can do escorting mission besides Strategic bombers, even when there is no Air Base or Naval Base.

Strategic Bomber in air-to-air combat SBR:
Attack 0
Bombard IC or AB or NB damage: 1D6**+3**
It is a higher rate of damage to compensate for the 0 attack factor.

Fighter in air-to-air combat SBR:
Attack 1 First Strike
Defend 1

Tactical Bomber in air-to-air combat SBR:
Attack 1 First Strike
Bombard AB or NB damage: 1D6

IC’s AAA: @1 against each Strategic Bomber
Naval Base or Air Base: @1 against each Strategic Bomber or Tactical bomber

G40 SBR HRules with StB A0 and Fg A1 First Strike D1 : damage 1D6+3

1 Strategic Bomber doing SBR against no interceptor

AAA roll = odds casualties

5/6 StB survived * 6.5 IPCs = +5.417 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs

Sum: + 5.417 - 2 = +3.417 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor Def 1

Interceptor Fg roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/66/6 = 6/36 1 StB killed by Fg
5/61/6 = 5/36 1 StB killed by AAA
5/6*5/6 = 25/36 No casualty at all.

Results:
Bombard on IC 25/36* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +6.5 IPCs) = + 4.514 IPCs
StB killed 11/36 *-12 IPCs = - 3.667 IPCs
Sum: + 4.514 - 3.667 = + 0.847 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors Def 1

Interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/366/6 = 66/216 1 StB killed by Fg
25/361/6 = 25/216 1 StB killed by AAA
25/36*5/6 = 125/216 No casualty at all.

Results:
Bombard on IC 125/216* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +6.5 IPCs) = + 3.762 IPCs
StB killed 91/216 *-12 IPCs = - 5.056 IPCs
Sum: + 3.762 - 5.056 = - 1.294 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 Fighter Attack 1 First Strike and 1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors Def 1

Fighter roll/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/66/361/6= 6/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/66/365/6= 30/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
1/630/361/6 = 30/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/630/365/6 = 150/1296 No casualty vs 1 Fg

5/61/366/6 = 30/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
5/610/361/6 = 50/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/610/365/6 = 250/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg vs no casualty
5/625/361/6 = 125/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/625/365/6 = 625/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1055/1296 * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +6.5 IPCs) = + 5.291 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 216/1296 +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
Fg killed: 280/1296-10 IPCs = - 2.160 IPCs
StB killed: 155/1296*-12 IPCs = - 1.435 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 86/1296*-22 IPCs = - 1.460 IPCs

Sum: + 6.958 - 5.055 = + 1.903 IPC damage/SBR run

1 Fighter Att 1 First Strike and 1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor Def 1

Fighter roll/interceptor Fg roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/66/61/6 = 6/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/66/65/6 = 30/216 No casualty vs 1 Fg

5/61/61/6 = 5/216 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/61/65/6 = 25/216 1 Fg killed by Fg vs no casualty
5/65/61/6 = 25/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/65/65/6 = 125/216 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 180/216 * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +6.5 IPCs) = + 5.417 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 36/216 +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
Fg killed: 25/216-10 IPCs = - 1.157 IPCs
StB killed: 31/216*-12 IPCs = - 1.722 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 5/216*-22 IPCs = - 0.509 IPC

Sum: + 7.084 - 3.388 = + 3.696 IPC damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers Att 0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors Def 1

Interceptor Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/3636/36= 36/1296 2 StBs killed by Fgs
10/366/36 = 60/1296 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA
10/6*30/36= 300/1296 1 StB killed by Fg

25/361/36 = 25/1296 2 StBs killed by AAA
25/3610/36 = 250/1296 1 StB killed by AAA
25/36*25/36 = 625/1296 No casualty at all.

Results:
2x Bombard on IC 625/1296* ((2+4)+(12+4) IPCs)/2= +13 IPCs) = +6.269 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC 550/1296* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +6.5 IPCs) = + 2.758 IPCs
2 StBs killed 121/1296*-24 IPCs = - 2.241 IPCs
1 StB killed 550/1296*-12 IPCs = - 5.093 IPCs
Sum: + 9.027 - 7.334 = + 1.693 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers Att 0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor Def 1

Interceptor Fg roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/66/36 = 6/216 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA
1/630/36= 30/216 1 StB killed by Fg
5/61/36 = 5/216 2 StBs killed by AAA
5/610/36 = 50/216 1 StB killed by AAA
5/6*25/36 = 125/216 No casualty at all.

Results:
2x Bombard on IC 125/216* ((2+4)+(12+4) IPCs)/2= +13 IPCs) = +7.523 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC 80/216* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +6.5 IPCs) = + 2.407 IPCs
2 StBs killed 11/216*-24 IPCs = - 1.222 IPC
1 StB killed 80/216*-12 IPCs = - 4.444 IPCs
Sum: + 9.930 - 5.666 = + 4.264 IPCs damage/SBR run

Summary:
G40 SBR HRules with StB A0 and Fg A1 First Strike D1 : damage 1D6+3

1 Strategic Bomber doing SBR against no interceptor
Sum: + 5.417 - 2 = +3.417 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1
Sum: + 4.514 - 3.667 = + 0.847 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1
Sum: + 3.762 - 5.056 = - 1.294 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 Fighter A1 First Strike and 1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1
Sum: + 6.958 - 5.055 = + 1.903 IPC damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1
Sum: + 9.027 - 7.334 = + 1.693 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 Fighter A1 First Strike and 1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1
Sum: + 7.084 - 3.388 = + 3.696 IPC damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1
Sum: + 9.930 - 5.666 = + 4.264 IPCs damage/SBR run

@Baron:

To give everyone an opportunity to make his own mind about which SBR rules is his prefered one, and their impact and odds, here is a complete summary of all the calc results about various SBR rules with different combination of units:

G1940 OOB SBR:
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run

baron Münchhausen

I believe that probably this last one would be easier to implement since heavy bomber damage was part of some Tech tree in previous edition. Also, the 2D6 damage introduce a greater variability on the dice result. In a certain way, it can be similar to the effect of massive carpet bombing. The effect of such attack was mainly random. Sometimes it reaches targets and sometimes not at all.

Hope it can provides some interests to discuss its merits on the specific HR thread:

One things to remember is that the OOB SBR is statistically more efficient than this one (even if the bombers can deliver 2D6 damage!).
Just compare the summary with the last post quoted below about G40 OOB SBR odds.

Of course, when there is no interception, the damage are greater than OOB, but Strategic bombers are no more dangerous against intercepting Fighters. It is the real incentive to intercept and have some dogfights.
Only the escorting planes (Fighters and Tactical Bombers) can be a danger to them.

@Baron:

Down below here is another small variant from the above SBR HR for Global 1940
That is my preferred, because it is the nearest OOB odds we can get without going crazy on heavy bombardment.
In this case (as the last one above), both attacking Fighters and Tactical Bombers still have a small First Strike advantage over defending Fighter.
However, Strategic Bombers are still defenseless against interceptors.

In this variant, it should be assumed that Tactical bombers can do escorting mission besides Strategic bombers, even when there is no Air Base or Naval Base.

Strategic Bomber in air-to-air combat SBR:
Attack 0
Bombard IC or AB or NB damage: 2D6
It is a higher rate of damage to compensate for the 0 attack factor.

Fighter in air-to-air combat SBR:
Attack 1 First Strike
Defend 1

Tactical Bomber in air-to-air combat SBR:
Attack 1 First Strike
Bombard AB or NB damage: 1D6

IC’s AAA: @1 against each Strategic Bomber
Naval Base or Air Base: @1 against each Strategic Bomber or Tactical bomber

G40 SBR HRules with StB A0 and Fg A1 First Strike D1 : damage 2D6

1 Strategic Bomber doing SBR against no interceptor

AAA roll = odds casualties

5/6 StB survived * (2+12= 14/2= 7 IPCs) = +5.833 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs

Sum: + 5.833 - 2 = +3.833 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor Def 1

Interceptor Fg roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/66/6 = 6/36 1 StB killed by Fg
5/61/6 = 5/36 1 StB killed by AAA
5/6*5/6 = 25/36 No casualty at all.

Results:
Bombard on IC 25/36* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = + 4.861 IPCs
StB killed 11/36 *-12 IPCs = - 3.667 IPCs
Sum: + 4.861 - 3.667 = + 1.194 IPC damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors Def 1

Interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/366/6 = 66/216 1 StB killed by Fg
25/361/6 = 25/216 1 StB killed by AAA
25/36*5/6 = 125/216 No casualty at all.

Results:
Bombard on IC 125/216* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = + 4.051 IPCs
StB killed 91/216 *-12 IPCs = - 5.056 IPCs
Sum: + 4.051 - 5.056 = - 1.005 IPC damage/SBR run

1 Fighter Attack 1 First Strike and 1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors Def 1

Fighter roll/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/66/361/6= 6/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/66/365/6= 30/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
1/630/361/6 = 30/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/630/365/6 = 150/1296 No casualty vs 1 Fg

5/61/366/6 = 30/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
5/610/361/6 = 50/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/610/365/6 = 250/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg vs no casualty
5/625/361/6 = 125/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/625/365/6 = 625/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1055/1296 * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = + 5.698 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 216/1296 +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
Fg killed: 280/1296-10 IPCs = - 2.160 IPCs
StB killed: 155/1296*-12 IPCs = - 1.435 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 86/1296*-22 IPCs = - 1.460 IPCs

Sum: + 7.365 - 5.055 = + 2.310 IPC damage/SBR run

1 Fighter Att 1 First Strike and 1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor Def 1

Fighter roll/interceptor Fg roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/66/61/6 = 6/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/66/65/6 = 30/216 No casualty vs 1 Fg

5/61/61/6 = 5/216 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/61/65/6 = 25/216 1 Fg killed by Fg vs no casualty
5/65/61/6 = 25/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/65/65/6 = 125/216 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 180/216 * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = + 5.833 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 36/216 +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
Fg killed: 25/216-10 IPCs = - 1.157 IPCs
StB killed: 31/216*-12 IPCs = - 1.722 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 5/216*-22 IPCs = - 0.509 IPC

Sum: + 7.500 - 3.388 = + 4.112 IPC damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers Att 0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors Def 1

Interceptor Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/3636/36= 36/1296 2 StBs killed by Fgs
10/366/36 = 60/1296 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA
10/6*30/36= 300/1296 1 StB killed by Fg

25/361/36 = 25/1296 2 StBs killed by AAA
25/3610/36 = 250/1296 1 StB killed by AAA
25/36*25/36 = 625/1296 No casualty at all.

Results:
2x Bombard on IC 625/1296* ((2+4)+(12+4) IPCs)/2= +14 IPCs) = +6.752 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC 550/1296* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = + 2.971 IPCs
2 StBs killed 121/1296*-24 IPCs = - 2.241 IPCs
1 StB killed 550/1296*-12 IPCs = - 5.093 IPCs
Sum: + 9.722 - 7.334 = + 2.389 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers Att 0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor Def 1

Interceptor Fg roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/66/36 = 6/216 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA
1/630/36= 30/216 1 StB killed by Fg
5/61/36 = 5/216 2 StBs killed by AAA
5/610/36 = 50/216 1 StB killed by AAA
5/6*25/36 = 125/216 No casualty at all.

Results:
2x Bombard on IC 125/216* ((2+4)+(12+4) IPCs)/2= +14 IPCs) = +8.102 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC 80/216* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = + 2.593 IPCs
2 StBs killed 11/216*-24 IPCs = - 1.222 IPC
1 StB killed 80/216*-12 IPCs = - 4.444 IPCs
Sum: + 10.695 - 5.666 = + 5.029 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HRules with StB A0 and Fg A1 First Strike D1 : damage 2D6

Summary:
1 Strategic Bomber doing SBR against no interceptor
Sum: + 5.833 - 2 = +3.833 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1
Sum: + 4.861 - 3.667 = + 1.194 IPC damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1
Sum: + 4.051 - 5.056 = - 1.005 IPC damage/SBR run

1 Fighter A1 First Strike and 1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1
Sum: + 7.365 - 5.055 = + 2.310 IPC damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1
Sum: + 9.722 - 7.334 = + 2.389 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 Fighter A1 First Strike and 1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1
Sum: + 7.500 - 3.388 = + 4.112 IPC damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1
Sum: + 10.695 - 5.666 = + 5.029 IPCs damage/SBR run

@Baron:

G1940 OOB SBR:
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run

baron Münchhausen

@barney:

Basically I never intercept. If Bombers were 0 and Fighters 1 then it would at least force the attacker to send more escorts, or maybe not force but encourage. IDK. I still like the idea of a scrambled fighter reducing a bombers dice roll by two on a 1:1 basis to encourage scrambling. Right now why do it unless you have the advantage?

@Gargantua:

Yeah, the bombers at 1 really sucks - they should be 0.

Unless I have some advantage in numbers, it seems like intercepting is only giving the attacker more opportunity to damage your force where it counts.

But it all depends on what’s going on in game… and if scrambling that fighter could mean allowing the Russians to place more units - maybe you do it. High risk game of Russian roulette.

@wittmann:

Afternoon Baron.
I would never intercept, if I had fewer planes than the attacker, unless he had no Fts in the battle and I could afford to lose (could replace) my losses.
As the agressor, I would also ensure I had a Ft to lose, if the defender had Fts which could intercept and would like 2 or 3 more planes than him.
As a rule, I don’t intercept, as the attacker can usually accompany his Bombers, with the canon fodder Fighters.
The new rules make it a raw deal for the defender. I do not like the change from Anniversary and 42, which saw the 2 in defence become a measly 1 in 1940.

Hi, everyone.
A deeper question for all of you:
would you intercept or make a SBR on 1:1 ratio, if the following values were applied?
Or is this a major deterrent from the attacker POV?

Defending interceptors get first strike @1 and always hit Bombers first, whether Tactical or Strategic (owner’s choice).
If intercepting, the Defender can also bring into combat his AAA units within the TT, each defend @1 against up to 1 plane.

Strategic Bomber in air-to-air combat SBR:
Attack 1
Bombard IC or AB or NB damage: 1D6+2

Fighter in air-to-air combat SBR:
Attack 1 First Strike
Defend 1 First Strike
Always hit Bombers first, whether Tactical or Strategic (owner’s choice).

Tactical Bomber in air-to-air combat SBR:
Attack 1
Bombard AB or NB damage: 1D6

It should be assumed that Tactical bombers can do escorting mission besides Strategic bombers, even when there is no Air Base or Naval Base.

Anti-Aircraft Artillery
Defense: 1 per unit and up to max 1 per enemy’s plane.
All Anti-Aircraft Artillery within the TT get 1@1 up to maximum of 1 defense roll per each attacking aircraft.
Planes’ casualties are the owner’s choice.
AAA unit can be chosen as casualty, if all defending interceptors are already taken as casualties.
If the territory is also under a regular attack, surviving AAA units can also be used against other airplanes, working as per OOB rules.

IC’s AA gun: @1 against each Strategic Bomber
Naval Base or Air Base’s AA gun: @1 against each Strategic Bomber or Tactical bomber

Threshold for making a viable SBR against interceptors?

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