XPAD2 Game 21 Dicer's Creed (axis) vs Team GARL (allies+12)

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9

Game History

Round: 4

Purchase Units - Russians
            Russians buy 4 armour, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Russians
            4 infantry moved from Bryansk to Belarus
            4 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Bryansk to Belarus

Combat - Russians
            Battle in Belarus
                Russians attack with 4 fighters, 4 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                Germans defend with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                Russians win, taking Belarus from Italians with 4 fighters, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 10
                Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Russians
            6 infantry moved from Timguska to Novosibirsk
            2 aaGuns and 12 infantry moved from Yenisey to Timguska
            3 infantry moved from Bryansk to Ukraine
            2 infantry moved from Bryansk to Ukraine
            1 aaGun moved from Bryansk to Ukraine
            1 aaGun, 2 armour, 3 artilleries, 22 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Bryansk to Smolensk
            1 armour and 7 artilleries moved from Russia to Smolensk
            1 mech_infantry moved from Rostov to Smolensk
            4 fighters moved from Belarus to Russia
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Belarus to Russia

Place Units - Russians
            4 armour and 1 mech_infantry placed in Russia
            3 infantry placed in Ukraine

Turn Complete - Russians
            Russians collect 31 PUs; end with 31 PUs total

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9

Game History

Round: 4

Purchase Units - Russians
            Russians buy 4 armour, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Russians
            4 infantry moved from Bryansk to Belarus
            4 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Bryansk to Belarus

Combat - Russians
            Battle in Belarus
                Russians attack with 4 fighters, 4 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                Germans defend with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                Russians win, taking Belarus from Italians with 4 fighters, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 10
                Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Russians
            6 infantry moved from Timguska to Novosibirsk
            2 aaGuns and 12 infantry moved from Yenisey to Timguska
            3 infantry moved from Bryansk to Ukraine
            2 infantry moved from Bryansk to Ukraine
            1 aaGun moved from Bryansk to Ukraine
            1 aaGun, 2 armour, 3 artilleries, 22 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Bryansk to Smolensk
            1 armour and 7 artilleries moved from Russia to Smolensk
            1 mech_infantry moved from Rostov to Smolensk
            4 fighters moved from Belarus to Russia
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Belarus to Russia

Place Units - Russians
            4 armour and 1 mech_infantry placed in Russia
            3 infantry placed in Ukraine

Turn Complete - Russians
            Russians collect 31 PUs; end with 31 PUs total
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Russians from Russia: 1 fighter
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Russians to Ukraine: 1 fighter
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

I think I have PTSD.  Night terrors all night….

a 1% result on such a key battle.  Picked up your rape kit from the district health center Seth… This was worse than a Cosbey, you were wide awake for the whole thing…

@DutchmanD:

I think I have PTSD.  Night terrors all night….

a 1% result on such a key battle.  Picked up your rape kit from the district health center Seth… This was worse than a Cosbey, you were wide awake for the whole thing…

unbelievable.  cowdice.

curse of the clever.  that was a very nice move on 91, which should have been decisive.

The good news is that Seth is already at the clinic.

What’s interesting is the dice in this matter…  I am not going to disagree that this is an outstanding result for the allies.  But it prompts a tale of caution when trusting Battle Calculator.

95% attacker wins
4% chance defender wins
1% chance for draw

10 planes vs 9 Hit points of ships and planes.  But if Germany so much as loses 2 extra planes somewhere, it’s turns into a 50/50 battle.

G round 1- they roll 4 hits instead of 6.33
UK round 1 - 4 hits which is basically the par 3.66

G round 2 - they roll a perfect par
Uk round 2 - 5 out of 5 hits instead of the par 3

Final round - both parties roll equally above par.

Tabulating all dice rolled:
G rolled 17 dice and are minus 2 hits from their expected par
Uk rolled 14 dice and are plus 2 hits from their expected par

Allies were only marginally above par, and Germany only marginally below - but because of the gap between the two we get wild results.  I think battle calculator can often trick people into overconfidence when it comes to risk. We have all seen dozens of 100% battles lost by just one slighted round.  It’s a false sense of security.

Was it really a 95% chance to win? and by what margin?  especially considering how the dice results only had minor variations.

It’s just a question I’ve struggled with over the last several games I’ve played…  open to thoughts from anyone.  Maybe it’s just luck.

I am concerned about Seth’s silence on the matter!

Garg,

I think the reason for rapid falls in %victory is that when attacking with high powered units, any loss dramatically decreases your attack power quicker than an opponent with a bunch of weak units.

here we had some fodder plus 2 hit points he had to chew through while we start knocking out hi good stuff

We all mourning over here… one day at a time… one foot in front of the other… life goes on… God loves us no matter what… whatever Joel Osteen cliché you want to throw in there.

Nothing like wreaking revenge with Japan….

Time to rally AXIS!

Meanwhile in Normandy Bordeaux, a single artillery is planning its next move…

@Gargantua:

The good news is that Seth is already at the clinic.

What’s interesting is the dice in this matter…  I am not going to disagree that this is an outstanding result for the allies.  But it prompts a tale of caution when trusting Battle Calculator.

95% attacker wins
4% chance defender wins
1% chance for draw

10 planes vs 9 Hit points of ships and planes.  But if Germany so much as loses 2 extra planes somewhere, it’s turns into a 50/50 battle.

G round 1- they roll 4 hits instead of 6.33
UK round 1 - 4 hits which is basically the par 3.66

G round 2 - they roll a perfect par
Uk round 2 - 5 out of 5 hits instead of the par 3

Final round - both parties roll equally above par.

Tabulating all dice rolled:
G rolled 17 dice and are minus 2 hits from their expected par
Uk rolled 14 dice and are plus 2 hits from their expected par

Allies were only marginally above par, and Germany only marginally below - but because of the gap between the two we get wild results.  I think battle calculator can often trick people into overconfidence when it comes to risk. We have all seen dozens of 100% battles lost by just one slighted round.  It’s a false sense of security.

Was it really a 95% chance to win? and by what margin?  especially considering how the dice results only had minor variations.

It’s just a question I’ve struggled with over the last several games I’ve played…  open to thoughts from anyone.  Maybe it’s just luck.

I am concerned about Seth’s silence on the matter!

It all comes down to numbers. If you attack a single unit, then you should attack with at least 3 and one of those should hit at 4. If you attack 2 units, then you should attack with 4, one should hit at 3 and another at 4, but two hitting at 4 would be better. Numbers matter. When attacking if you wish to be certain, then you need to outnumber the enemy forces and not by a small margin.

KILL! KILL! KILL! :evil:

I have the feeling we are going to be waiting awhile for this next turn lol…

“And the rockets red glare! The bombers bursting in air!  Gave through to the night, that our transports were still there!”

@Gargantua:

“And the rockets red glare! The bombers bursting in air!  Gave through to the night, that our transports were still there!”

Lol. F’n Canadian humor… Go a find some place to stand on guard already…, just not India…or Egypt…

Yep, I keep dl’ing the map and looking. No matter how many times I do it, the transports are indeed still there.

@DutchmanD:

@Gargantua:

“And the rockets red glare! The bombers bursting in air!  Gave through to the night, that our transports were still there!”

Lol. F’n Canadian humor… Go a find some place to stand on guard already…, just not India…or Egypt…

Yep, I keep dl’ing the map and looking. No matter how many times I do it, the transports are indeed still there.

Ever played portal? The cake is a lie.

Is this going to happen?

I’ve heard grumblings the Japanese may be planning a midnight assault tonight…

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9

Game History

Round: 4

Purchase Units - Japanese
            Japanese buy 1 carrier, 2 destroyers, 1 factory_minor, 3 fighters and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens;

Combat Move - Japanese
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sumatra to 41 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 41 Sea Zone to 79 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 79 Sea Zone to West India
            1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Burma to India
            1 mech_infantry moved from Yunnan to India
            1 fighter moved from 39 Sea Zone to West India
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 39 Sea Zone to West India
            1 bomber moved from Shan State to 45 Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Shan State to 43 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 36 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Anhwe to Hunan
            1 submarine moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
            3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from 42 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 39 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
            1 transport moved from 39 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Shan State to 38 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 38 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 39 Sea Zone to Ceylon

Combat - Japanese
            Battle in 45 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 1 bomber
                ANZAC defend with 1 transport
                Japanese win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
                Casualties for ANZAC: 1 transport
            Battle in 44 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber
                ANZAC defend with 1 cruiser
                Japanese win, taking 44 Sea Zone from ANZAC with 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
                Casualties for ANZAC: 1 cruiser
            Battle in 43 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 1 bomber and 1 destroyer
                Americans defend with 1 submarine
                Japanese win, taking 43 Sea Zone from Americans with 1 bomber and 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
                Casualties for Americans: 1 submarine
            Battle in Ceylon
            Battle in India
                Japanese attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                British defend with 2 infantry; UK_Pacific defend with 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour
                Japanese captures 2PUs while taking UK_Pacific capital
                Japanese win, taking Ceylon from UK_Pacific, taking India from UK_Pacific with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Japanese: 2 infantry
                Casualties for British: 2 infantry
            Battle in West India
                Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                British defend with 2 infantry
                Japanese win, taking West India from UK_Pacific with 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
                Casualties for British: 2 infantry
            Battle in Hunan
                Japanese attack with 1 artillery and 5 infantry
                Chinese defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese win, taking Hunan from Chinese with 1 artillery and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry
            Battle in 25 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 3 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers
                Americans defend with 1 destroyer
                Japanese win with 3 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyer

Non Combat Move - Japanese
            3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 25 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Japan to Kwangsi
            1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Shan State
            1 transport moved from 39 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
            1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 39 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from West India to 39 Sea Zone
            3 tactical_bombers moved from Yunnan to Java
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 44 Sea Zone to Celebes
            1 bomber moved from 43 Sea Zone to Kwangsi
            1 bomber moved from 45 Sea Zone to Kwangsi
            1 infantry moved from Manchuria to Jehol
            1 infantry moved from Korea to Manchuria
            1 cruiser moved from 6 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone

Place Units - Japanese
            1 carrier, 2 destroyers, 2 fighters and 1 transport placed in 6 Sea Zone
            1 fighter placed in Japan
            1 factory_minor placed in French Indo China

Turn Complete - Japanese
            Japanese collect 58 PUs; end with 60 PUs total
            Objective Japanese 3 Control Honolulu Or Sydney Or Calcutta Or Western United States: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 65 PUs
            Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 70 PUs

good grief!!! nearly 18 hours have passed since J4 - GET WITH IT GARL