The good news is that Seth is already at the clinic.
What’s interesting is the dice in this matter… I am not going to disagree that this is an outstanding result for the allies. But it prompts a tale of caution when trusting Battle Calculator.
95% attacker wins
4% chance defender wins
1% chance for draw
10 planes vs 9 Hit points of ships and planes. But if Germany so much as loses 2 extra planes somewhere, it’s turns into a 50/50 battle.
G round 1- they roll 4 hits instead of 6.33
UK round 1 - 4 hits which is basically the par 3.66
G round 2 - they roll a perfect par
Uk round 2 - 5 out of 5 hits instead of the par 3
Final round - both parties roll equally above par.
Tabulating all dice rolled:
G rolled 17 dice and are minus 2 hits from their expected par
Uk rolled 14 dice and are plus 2 hits from their expected par
Allies were only marginally above par, and Germany only marginally below - but because of the gap between the two we get wild results. I think battle calculator can often trick people into overconfidence when it comes to risk. We have all seen dozens of 100% battles lost by just one slighted round. It’s a false sense of security.
Was it really a 95% chance to win? and by what margin? especially considering how the dice results only had minor variations.
It’s just a question I’ve struggled with over the last several games I’ve played… open to thoughts from anyone. Maybe it’s just luck.
I am concerned about Seth’s silence on the matter!
