The “just sit and wait for the Phony War to end in April 1940” option is a bit perplexing as an answer to “You are the German High Command! What is your next Combat Movement?” because it seems to imply that the Phony War was operating on a fixed timetable, and that this timetable was in someone else’s hands. The lack of action on land on the Western Front is certainly due in part to inaction by France and Britain (whose strategy was basically to sit around for a couple of years to built up their strength for a showdown, while simultaneously hoping that the Nazi regime would be overthrown by a coup), but it was also very much a deliberate choice by Germany. The Wehrmacht needed to analyze the Polish Campaign, fix the tactical and operational elements that hadn’t worked as well as expected, plan the upcoming campaign against France and the Low Countries, rest and replenish its forces, give them more training, provide them with additional equipment, and redeploy them to the west. Doing this properly took time, but Germany could afford to take the time to do the job right because of the lack of Anglo-French pressure on the western front. ( In other words, by sitting on their collective hindquarters France and Britain surrendered the strategic initiative to Germany, which gave the Wehrmacht the luxury of attacking at the time and place of its own choosing.) Moreover, the time period during which these activities took place were the fall of 1939 and the winter of 1939-1940, which was conveniently timed because this meant that the Wehrmacht wouldn’t have to fight in the fall (manageable, but rainy and muddy) or in the winter (far less harsh in the West than in Russia, but still potentially nasty as veterans of the Battle of the Bulge will recall). The late spring / early summer period chosen for the offensive in the West was much more congenial for military operations.
WW2 75th Anniversary Poll–- #8--MARCH 1940
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Operation Pike refers to a strategic bombing plan, overseen by Air Commodore John Slessor, against the Soviet Union by the Anglo-French alliance. British military planning against the Soviet Union occurred during the first two years of the Second World War, when despite the Soviet Union’s neutrality, the British and French came to the conclusion that the Nazi-Soviet pact made Moscow the ally of Hitler. The plan was designed to destroy the Soviet oil industry, to cause collapse of Soviet economy and thus deprive Nazi Germany of the Soviet resources.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Pike
Lets say this operation occurs and goes according to plan. What do you think the Soviet Union would have done after being attacked by the Allies just because of the Nazi-Soviet Pact?
Follow-up question: Would this would have changed the early stages of World War II? -
There would have been an extremely stern response.
But I don’t see Russia going hand-in-hand into an offensive alongside Germany.
Maybe the Russians would push into the middle east?
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Maybe the Russians would push into the middle east?
That’s an interesting idea. If the British had destroyed the Soviet oil industry facilities in the Caucasus region, an interesting form of retaliation would have been for the Russian to destroy – or better yet capture and use – the oil industry facilities in Iran, which were an important petroleum source for Britain. As a nice bonus, occupying Iran would have given the Soviets a warm-water port in the Indian Ocean. The Russians did actually co-invade Iran with the British in mid-1941 (Operation Countenance).
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Now that we’re talking about it. I bet a Russian move into the middle east would have put incredible pressure on Turkey. And I’d think it would be pressure to side with the Axis, as both an expanding Germany and Russia would be on both sides.
I think the Turks would negotiate an amicable fold and allow axis troop movements through turkey, and open the Dardanelles to axis fleet movements.
UK would have had serious problems after that, and worse problems - if Turkey was receptive to say… inheriting Cyprus and some other possessions.
At that point it’s even possible that Spain may then have considered the Gibraltar grab more reasonably.
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I could see the Red Army sending an Expeditionary force into the West, as long as Germany was open with it’s plans with dealing with France.
Germany and the U.S.S.R may have had a lovers feud over Northern Norway.
I could see the Red Army launching an attack into Iran, which would threaten India.
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I bet a Russian move into the middle east would have put incredible pressure on Turkey. And I’d think it would be pressure to side with the Axis, as both an expanding Germany and Russia would be on both sides.
It would certainly have created a messy and complicated political situation, with unpredictable consequences. Russia and Turkey were competitors for a long time (the mid-19th century Crimean War being an example), so Turkey would probably have become very nervous at seeing the USSR move into the Middle East.
As I recall, the exploratory talks that occured around the fall of 1940 between Russia and Germany about Russia possibly joining the Axis eventually feel apart because, among other things, the two sides had competing interests in the Balkans – a part of the world where Turkey also had interests.
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It is pretty obvious that if UK bombed Russia, then Russia had no other choice than to declare war against UK, and the only way Russia could stop the air raids was to occupy Iran, where the UK airfields were. So yes, the War would have taken a different path
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