@guni-kid:
Keeping Moscow Soviet until round eight might be possible, even wihout ANY help from the Allies (which should start coming over the Atlantic by round four-five latest), but keeping the German from producing in Karelia until round five is basically impossible, if the German goes purchasing full land (mostly tanks and fighters) beginning G1. An example:
I largely agree. Russia will be unable to deadzone karelia by around round 5. Germany produces 13 compared to Russia ~7-8.
I want to note it’s counter intuitive, but infantry are actually much stronger than tanks and fighters for offensive pressure. The reason is that with tank and fighter purchases, the stack doesn’t have the defensive power to move adjacent to the opponent’s stack.
@guni-kid:
Soviet turn 1 takes West-Russia and Baltic States, stacking the first with almost everything available.
Agreed
@guni-kid:
German turn 1 could bring up to 7 Inf and 3 tanks to Karelia (using the transport in the Baltic Sea), also taking Baltic States back and keeping his fighters close for defense. Then what? If the Soviet takes Karelia back wih the West-Russian stack and Caucasus with Soviet turn 1 purchase units, Caucasus is quite weakly stacked and Karelia in a heavy German deadzone… So whats left from the attack on the Soviet side is taken by G2: 5-6 tanks, 3-4 Inf, up to 8 figters… And that’s it with the Soviet stack and keeping Germany out of Karelia…
Trading heavily as you’re describing is decisively unfavorable for Russia. For the reason that 1. UK/USA can’t support until round 4 and 2. germany produces 13 vs 7-8 of Russia.
End of Russia R1, zero bid, attacking Baltic with 1inf/1art/1fig and stacking Wrus:
Wrus 9 inf/2art/4tank
Arch: 2 inf
Baltic states: 0 units or 1 art
Russia: 2 inf/2 fig/+purchases
If germany stacks Karelia R1 with 7 inf/3tanks counter stack karelia with 11 inf/2art/4tank/2fig. Attack-retreat for 1 round with expected outcome of 6 germany inf lost and 4 Russia inf lost. Russia has an even better trade if Russia gains an extra 1-2 artillery in the initial bid. If low luck, Russia should attack retreat 2 rounds and leave germany with 1 tank in Karelia.
With Russia R1 purchases moved to Wrus, Russia can continue to deadzone Karelia unless Germany makes some extremely aggressive purchases. Aggressive purchase caveat: I’ve worked out the math and Germany can stack Karleia R2-R3 only with something like 8 tank buys a turn R1 and R2. This makes it immensely weak vs UK/US R4.
@guni-kid:
So to be honest, I would consider opening up a south front with that Soviet stakc against a weakly defended Ukraine then… Or other stuff, but keeping Germany out of Karelia at all costs is taking the valuable Soviet units down too quickly… Why not taking Karelia back with the Allies, landing in Scandinavia turn 4-5 and attacking the German from round 5-6 on…
If properly played, Russia can trade Karelia on attractive terms if Germany attempts to stack (e.g. kill 6 for 4 inf). Preventing Germany from producing in Karelia is essential or else Germany can produce 15 units a turn with the 2 on Karelia immediately applying pressure.
Ukraine is not as important because 1. it doesn’t have a factory 2. Russia can deadzone from either WRus or Cauc. These 2 territories are strong points of Russia due to production proximity and projection of influence across many territories.
Guni-kid, I think you are on the right track with understanding Germany pressure on Russia. My intention is to show the optimal Russia response to demonstrate why it’s not straightforward for Germany to directly kill Russia starting R1. The scenarios I discussed above are why aggressive Germany purchases (e.g. 8 tanks) and movements (e.g. trying to stack karelia or Ukr R1) are almost never seen between top players. These plays have reliable counters that leave the player at a disadvantage.
The Germany optimal line among top players is to buy 13 units a round, stack France with fighters, and stack baltic states with inf and poland with tanks and just enough infantry to trade ukraine. This is done until Karelia can be safely stacked.
The Russia optimal line is to purchase inf/art, stack Wrus, trade efficiently (e.g. trade Ukr/Belo with 2 fig/1 inf instead of 2 inf/1fig), and deadzone Karelia until R4 when UK/US can apply pressure on Germany.