Japan needs to take Hawaii or Sydney to get a VC win, thats all you need to do with the US in the Pacific - stop either of those from happening, spend the rest of your resources sending the US into N.Africa, and once big enough Rome. Italy is going to have to choose between pulling back from taking Egypt or taking the chance the combine UK/US forces take Rome as early as round 5/6
I agree with the Axis, especially Japan controlling the flow of the game right from the beginning.
However England and India are my favorite in this one. In it and overmatched right from the beginning, I love it when both are the crippling thorn in the Axis rear.