Africa is not critical if the Axis is doing an “aimed spear” at Russia and can slow the Allied landings by a turn (usually throurgh AF threat to their fleet). It is also contingent on Russia being afraid of a permanent loss of Caucuses (usually through a combined threat). The “Aimed Spear” requires a strong Japan naval presence in the Indian Ocean immediately, which can mean risk from the USA in the Pacific if TOTAL naval dominance was not achieved via Pearl and the Pearl Counter. It is also a risky attempt by Germany, since it involves a lot of ARM purchased on G1 (in advance of seeing the Allied moves that may or may not destroy the threat of an “aimed spear” attack).
