@Baron:
Another way to see how any odds higher than 1/6 have a cold shower effect:
1 SBR (doing 3.5 IPCs on average) get 1/6 to destroy 1 StB (12 IPCs)
So you can statistically get 5 SBR before being destroyed: 3.5 x 5 raid= 17.5 IPCs.
If the odds are just doubled to 2/6 (33%).
You can only get 2 SBR before being destroyed: 3.5 IPCs x 2 = 7 IPCs.
Making an intuitive calculation, all players doesn’t see a great benefit to risk a 12 IPCs StB for a few shots which can be more disastrous on their side.
But maybe I’m not correct since I forgot to consider the preemptive A1 of StB against interceptors.
2 times 1/6 = around 2/6 x 10 IPCs = 3.3 IPCs + 7 IPCs = 10 IPCs
Still seems 2 IPCs more in favor of the defender.
Does my calculations are good?
Or I should consider a third passage before being shot down by AA fire.
3 times 1/6 = around 3/6 x 10 IPCs = 5 IPCs + 7 IPCs = 12 IPCs
Making it a fair trade?!?
Here is some statistics which show (what we already know intuitively) that SBR on a 1:1 basis StB vs Fg 1942.2 is weaker and far less interesting than G40 and to what extent:
1942.2: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
5/6 StB survived * 3.5 IPCs = 2.9 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs
Sum: 2.9 - 2 = +.9 IPC damage/StB
OOB 1942.2: 1 StB A1 first strike vs 1 Fg D2
StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties
161= 6/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 3%
165= 30/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 14%
526= 60/216 StB killed by Fg: 28%
541= 20/216 StB killed by AAA: 9%
545= 100/216 both survived: 46%
Results:
60% * ((1+6 IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = 2.1 IPCs
17% killing Fg *+10 IPC = + 1.7 IPC
40% StB killed *-12 IPCs = - 4.8 IPCs
Sum: 3.8 - 4.8 = - 1 IPC. damage/StB
G1940: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = 4.583 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs
Sum: 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/StB
G1940: 1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1
StB roll / Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties
116= 6/216 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed: 2.8%
151= 5/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 2.3%
155= 25/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 11.6%
516= 30/216 StB killed by Fg: 13.9%
551= 25/216 StB killed by AAA: 11.6%
555= 125/216 both survived: 57.8%
Results:
Bombard IC: 150/216 = 69.444% * ((1+2)+(6+2)/2) IPCs= + 5.5 IPCs) = 3.819 IPCs
killing Fg : 36/216= 16.667% *+10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPC
StB killed: 66/216= 30.556% *-12 IPCs = - 3.667 IPCs
Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPC damage/SBR run
So, compared to 1942.2 in a net results, each SBR round in G40 rules is +1.683 IPC / StB without interceptor;
and, on 1:1 StB vs Fg, each SBR round in G40 is +2.179 IPC / StB.
Do you see how it is far more interesting to try such SBR with G40 rules?
Since triple AAA use G40 SBR rules in 1942.2, at least, it could be more interesting to increase the bombing damage per each StB at the same level as G40: 1D6+2 IPCs while keeping the historical theme of attacking Fg and StB @1 first strike vs interceptor D@2.
In fact, this damage modified SBR for 1942.2 will not be in par with G40 SBR (+1.179 IPCs/StB) when there is an interceptor but still will be stronger than OOB 1942.2 SBR.
Results:
60% * ((1+2) (6+2)) IPCs/2= +5.5 IPCs) = 3.3 IPCs
17% killing Fg *+10 IPC = + 1.7 IPC
40% StB killed *-12 IPCs = - 4.8 IPCs
Sum: 5 - 4.8 = + .2 IPC.
instead of - 1 IPC. vs 1942.2 OOB
That way, using cold maths, I hope everyone can see it won’t create an unbalancing effect, since it is still less effective than G40 SBR, very near -1 IPC damage/StB (1942: .2 vs G40: 1.2).
I will be glad, if any one is able to compare 1 StB+ 1 Fg vs 2 Fgs in both 1942 and G40, because I must avow that it is far more complex and it is beyond my meagre maths knowledge.