@Jacob16 No scramble
2014 G40 league rules
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Well said again, Shin Ji!
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10-20% has been my experience as well
Here is some data to back it up
Mr Roboto is by far the most active player in the league so far this year. Let’s look at his results.
Mr. Roboto is
1-7 against Tier 1’s
7-3 against Tier 2’s
14-2 against Tier 3’s
9-0 against Tier 4’sMr. Roboto is near the top of tier 2.
I think this is ample evidence alone, that nowhere near 1/2 of games are decided more by luck than by skill. Not wanting to dogpile on Infrastructure, but I just want to respectfully disagree with that assertion.
Sorry. I’m intrigued. How does this data back anything up?
Maybe I was murky in my comment. Let me reiterate what I mean. In games between closely matched players I believe that luck determines the outcome as often as skill does.
Here is some empirical data; I have played 3 games against wheatbeer. I am 2-1 but do not feel I can say I am a more skilled player. If you include the playoff game and my current game that I am most likely going to lose against bmnielson I am 1-2 but do not feel I can say he is a more skilled player. One step further is that 3 of these game were definetly decided by luck. 1other game could be argued to have been determined by luck as well. I have had 1 game against Karl this season and 1 game against mrroboto. 1 of those was determined by luck.A player can of course counteract bad luck with superior skill against an opponent and should not be considered in the data…
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@Infrastructure:
Good players know when a game has been won or lost more to luck than to skill.
Yes, about 10-20% of the time
The most unfortunate part of this game in my mind is that around half of the games are determined by extreme luck. Definition of extreme luck meaning the game is determined more by luck than skill.
This is why we’re saying what we’re saying. It looks to me like you are saying that around half of the games are determined by extreme luck, because, well, that’s word for word what you did say right here.
You then define extreme luck as meaning the game is determined more by luck than skill. Therefore you are saying that around half of games are determined more by luck than skill. You said nothing about playing equal players.
So Mr. Roboto’s data absolutely backs up my point, that obviously nowhere near half of games are determined by luck, else he would win more games against tier 1 players and lose more games against tier 3 and tier 4 players.
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@Infrastructure:
10-20% has been my experience as well
Here is some data to back it up
Mr Roboto is by far the most active player in the league so far this year.� Let’s look at his results.
Mr. Roboto is
1-7 against Tier 1’s
7-3 against Tier 2’s
14-2 against Tier 3’s
9-0 against Tier 4’sMr. Roboto is near the top of tier 2.
I think this is ample evidence alone, that nowhere near 1/2 of games are decided more by luck than by skill.� Not wanting to dogpile on Infrastructure, but I just want to respectfully disagree with that assertion.
Sorry. I’m intrigued. How does this data back anything up?
Maybe I was murky in my comment. Let me reiterate what I mean. In games between closely matched players I believe that luck determines the outcome as often as skill does.
Here is some empirical data; I have played 3 games against wheatbeer. I am 2-1 but do not feel I can say I am a more skilled player. If you include the playoff game and my current game that I am most likely going to lose against bmnielson I am 1-2 but do not feel I can say he is a more skilled player. One step further is that 3 of these game were definetly decided by luck. 1other game could be argued to have been determined by luck as well. I have had 1 game against Karl this season and 1 game against mrroboto. 1 of those was determined by luck.A player can of course counteract bad luck with superior skill against an opponent and should not be considered in the data…
That’s the biggest mistake someone can make when arguing about probabilities: Picking out examples. You can always pick out examples, to back up your point, especially when it’s only 5-6 games you’re talking about. The same mistake is made by poker beginners. They remember that one time where they lost despite being favoured 95% of the time.
If you look at a bigger sample size, your argument does not hold.
On a side note, that percentage is heavily influenced by playstyle. Players with risky moves tend to have more games decided by luck, obviously. For example, if you are a fan of the Sealion, your experience may vastly differ to mine, since I tend to go for very long games won by endurance. That sealion attack usually has a success rate of something between 80% and 90%, which means the game is lost every 5-10th time immediately due to that attack only. Add another 2-3 risky attacks (maybe on India or Egypt) early on, and I can understand how that 50% luck/skill decision is percepted.
For example, I can remember you using sealion in our only game. It failed hardcore and you would have lost the game there, had we not agreed on a reroll. Risky play involves luck-based game decisions…
If a player does want to reduce the luck factor in his games, he/she should try to avoid risky battles.
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ROBOTO:
I more than understand the concept of remembering the bad rolls and forgetting the good ones and truly believe I am taking that into account. I also try to take into account factors like Italy being down 3 aircraft by turn 3 is much more impactful on a game than japan being down 3 air by round 3 and other such tangibles. Of course your opponents good or bad luck is directly impactful as well. ANyway see below on agreeing to disagree and moving on…
I only use sealion when it is the best move based upon my opponent’s moves. I actually don’t like it and I almost never do it in the 80% variation.GAMERMAN:
Sorry if you feel attacked by my last post. That was why I clarified that I meant closely matched players. It seems I didn’t say it but meant it in my head in my early post. Again that is why I clarified. It seems I am alone in my thought process and that won’t be the first or last time in my life. Perhaps we CAN agree that I am in the minority in my thinking, but I’m not going to admit that I’m wrong, because it’s what I believe.Anywho, lets all agree to disagree and agree that axis & allies kinda rocks.
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@Infrastructure:
Anywho, lets all agree to disagree and agree that axis & allies kinda rocks.
That’s right! Game on!
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Great point about play style, Roboto!
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The relative skill level does make a huge difference in weighting how much luck is involved. If I played against a clone of myself, the game would be 100% luck, since there would be no strategic advantage for either side. Whereas an inexperienced player needs tremendous luck to beat a high-level opponent.
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luck (or as is true in Infrastructure’s case, the lack thereof) creates the need for strategy modifications.
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If I live infinitely all the luck will balance out right? Or does it carry over into the next life? Or does luck not exist and it is all fate? Destiny? Destiny’s Child?
“I dont know I cant figure it all out tonight, I just want to hang with your daughter.”
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Proverbs 16:33 :-o
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I knew my questioning of the reasons for the deuteronomists writing the new testament was going to come back to haunt me. But why! Why does it have to be in Axis and Allies?!?!?!?!
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?? Proverbs is OT and is attributed to King Solomon…
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my bad. misquoting the books of the bible is probably the reason for my latest rash of bad luck…
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Morning all. I wanted to say that I will start playing another League game very soon. I just prefer the stress free camaraderie playing among friends, especially team games. Did not want you to think I had forgotten I am in the League.
I am also very aware that I am not and should not be in Tier 1. I will lose my next game and be put in my rightful place! Should be soon, as I have an opponent lined up. Leo -
How do you know it’s morning when they read your post, wittman? eh? :P
Sorry, in a sarcastic mood this very fine 8th of May.
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@Cmdr:
How do you know it’s morning when they read your post, wittman? eh? :P
Sorry, in a sarcastic mood this very fine 8th of May.
Doesn’t everyone wake up and check the forum first?
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Nope, only those of us who are in need of a support group for our addictions. =^_^=
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@wittmann:
I am also very aware that I am not and should not be in Tier 1. I will lose my next game and be put in my rightful place! Should be soon, as I have an opponent lined up. Leo
You are barely tier 1 at the minimum 3.50, and Points per game/ratings often aren’t very accurate until you’ve completed about 5-6 games… If you are going to lose your next game, yes your PPG will drop quite a bit :-)
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@wittmann:
Doesn’t everyone wake up and check the forum first?
I know I do!
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