13LG40 PGMatt (+6 allies) vs SeththeNewb(axis)

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 7

Politics - Germans

Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 1 armour, 1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 8 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Germans
            2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Gibraltar to 110 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 113 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 113 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Western Germany to 110 Sea Zone
            1 bomber and 3 fighters moved from Western Germany to 114 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 113 Sea Zone to 114 Sea Zone
            3 bombers and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Novgorod to 114 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 113 Sea Zone to 114 Sea Zone
            1 mech_infantry moved from Caucasus to Northwest Persia
                  Germans take Northwest Persia from Russians
            1 infantry moved from Samara to Vologda
                  Germans take Vologda from Russians

Combat - Germans
            Battle in 110 Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers
                British defend with 1 destroyer
                Germans win with 3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Germans: 1 destroyer
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
            Battle in 114 Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 4 bombers, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers
                Russians defend with 1 cruiser
                Germans win with 4 bombers, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
                Casualties for Russians: 1 cruiser

Non Combat Move - Germans
            3 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from 114 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from 113 Sea Zone to Western Germany
            4 bombers moved from 114 Sea Zone to Western Germany
            3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 110 Sea Zone to Western Germany
            3 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia
            3 mech_infantrys moved from Novgorod to Belarus
            1 infantry moved from Smolensk to Belarus
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Bryansk to Belarus
            20 armour and 13 mech_infantrys moved from Tambov to Belarus
            1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys moved from Ukraine to Belarus
            3 aaGuns, 5 artilleries and 15 infantry moved from Russia to Smolensk
            3 artilleries moved from Tambov to Russia
            1 mech_infantry moved from Volgograd to Bryansk

Place Units - Germans
            1 carrier and 1 destroyer placed in 113 Sea Zone
            2 fighters placed in Western Germany
            1 infantry placed in France
            1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys placed in Russia
            3 mech_infantrys placed in Volgograd
            3 mech_infantrys placed in Ukraine
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Gibraltar: 2 fighters
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Alexandria: 2 fighters
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

Turn Complete - Germans
            Germans collect 60 PUs; end with 60 PUs total
            Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 65 PUs
            Objective Germans 6 Control Iraq Or Persia Or Northwest Persia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 67 PUs
            Objective Germans 3 Control Caucasus: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 72 PUs
            Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 15 PUs; end with 87 PUs

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 7

Purchase Units - Japanese
            Japanese buy 1 artillery, 1 carrier, 3 infantry, 5 submarines and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 6 SuicideAttackTokens; 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Japanese
            6 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 16 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
            2 tactical_bombers moved from Japan to 25 Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Japan to 25 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from Java to 42 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from French Indo China to 36 Sea Zone
            2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 41 Sea Zone
            3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from India to 41 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Kazakhstan to Turkmenistan
                  Japanese take Turkmenistan from Russians
            3 artilleries, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from West India to Eastern Persia
                  Japanese take Eastern Persia from British
            1 artillery and 1 transport moved from 42 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Shan State to 37 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 37 Sea Zone to 41 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from 41 Sea Zone to Sumatra

Combat - Japanese
            Battle in 25 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer, 6 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers
                ANZAC defend with 1 destroyer
                Japanese win with 1 bomber, 6 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer
                Casualties for ANZAC: 1 destroyer
            Battle in 41 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 3 fighters, 1 tactical_bomber and 2 transports
                British defend with 1 destroyer
                Japanese win with 3 fighters, 1 tactical_bomber and 2 transports remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
            Battle in Sumatra
                Japanese attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                ANZAC defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese win, taking Sumatra from ANZAC with 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
                Casualties for ANZAC: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Japanese
            3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 41 Sea Zone to West India
            3 infantry moved from India to West India
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Burma to West India
            3 mech_infantrys moved from Kazakhstan to Eastern Persia
            3 infantry moved from Tsinghai to Kazakhstan
            1 aaGun and 3 infantry moved from Yunnan to Burma
            2 infantry moved from Shantung to Jehol
            1 infantry moved from Novosibirsk to Vologda
            1 bomber, 6 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers moved from 25 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from 6 Sea Zone to Japan
            1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 16 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 22 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 34 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 46 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone

Place Units - Japanese
            1 carrier, 5 submarines and 2 transports placed in 6 Sea Zone
            2 infantry placed in Japan
            Japanese undo move 2.
            1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Japan
            2 infantry placed in India

Turn Complete - Japanese
            Japanese collect 72 PUs; end with 72 PUs total
            Objective Japanese 3 Control Honolulu Or Sydney Or Calcutta Or Western United States: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 77 PUs
            Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 82 PUs

Odds were it would’ve been a 2:3 trade.

And I am OK with rolling that battle on the forum if you want.

I sent just enough that I didn’t think you’d scramble, a single air less than that I would’ve asked.

Typically I look at a couple things when deciding to scramble or not.

TUV difference: Will I gain more or lose more by scrambling. Battle went from +5-6 in my favor to +12 in my favor had you scrambled. Hence losing proposition for you to scramble. Expected TUV change still was in my favor had you scrambled against 1 fewer fighter/tac. But it was marginal difference and maybe worth it. Less a fighter/tac and now the expected TUV change swung in your favor, dropping from +5-6 for me to +1-2.

Importance/Payoff Does scrambling prevent something that could impact the game. IE, US landing in Norway or maybe Denmark for a can opener. Maybe clearing a blocker would expose a fleet to another friendly power. Not really applicable here.

Win Percentage How much do the odds change if the air scrambles? 99% to 91% doesn’t really impact things too much. But 91% to 70% is suddenly a lot more viable.

Attrition Which side is in better position to replace and/or absorb the losses. Who needs that air more?

I don’t have a hard and fast formula and I try to weigh the above to figure out whether to scramble or not. And a lot of times I internalize these things and just kind of eyeball it. If it’s big enough, important enough, or close enough I might run some calcs and figure out what I should do.

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 7

Purchase Units - Italians
            Italians buy 1 armour, 1 carrier and 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Italians
            3 artilleries and 8 infantry moved from Alexandria to Egypt
            1 armour moved from Tobruk to Egypt
            3 transports moved from 98 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Greece to 99 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Albania to 97 Sea Zone
            2 armour and 1 infantry moved from Southern Italy to 97 Sea Zone
            2 armour, 2 infantry and 2 transports moved from 97 Sea Zone to 98 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 5 infantry and 3 transports moved from 99 Sea Zone to 98 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser moved from 98 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            2 armour, 1 artillery and 7 infantry moved from 98 Sea Zone to Egypt
            4 destroyers and 3 submarines moved from 98 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from 97 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to Egypt
            1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to Egypt

Combat - Italians
            Battle in Egypt
                Italians attack with 3 armour, 4 artilleries, 2 fighters and 15 infantry
                ANZAC defend with 2 infantry; French defend with 2 infantry; Russians defend with 1 mech_infantry; British defend with 1 armour, 2 artilleries, 1 fighter, 1 harbour, 4 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys
                Italians win, taking Egypt from British with 3 armour, 4 artilleries, 2 fighters and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 29
                Casualties for ANZAC: 2 infantry
                Casualties for French: 2 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 mech_infantry
                Casualties for British: 1 armour, 2 artilleries, 1 fighter, 4 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys
                Casualties for Italians: 13 infantry

Non Combat Move - Italians
            2 fighters moved from Egypt to Alexandria
            1 destroyer moved from 97 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            4 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Southern Italy

Place Units - Italians
            1 carrier placed in 95 Sea Zone
            1 armour and 2 infantry placed in Southern Italy

Turn Complete - Italians
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 3
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 93 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1,3,3,2
            Italians collect 17 PUs (3 lost to blockades); end with 17 PUs total
            Objective Italians 2 Roman Empire: Italians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 22 PUs
            Objective Italians 1 Control The Mediterranean: Italians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 27 PUs

Axis have met victory conditions in Europe. The allies have 1 turn to retake a VC.

I see two possibilities, Rome or Cairo. German air will be flying in to support both and your odds at either are already pretty low. I’m fine with you taking a shot though.

GG Matt. Great playing against ya.