That’s exactly my point; you can’t prove the hypothetical, so your statement that the war would be over is unverifiable, but plausible, just like my statement that if Paris fell Italy might have worked with the CP.
The fall of France would mean the end of the war, not an unverifiable conclusion.
In that case Italy has some remote chance of joining the CP. <5%
But if you are correct, the game is over anyway so their is no real point in considering it for the game due to the existing Victory conditions. Germany came close to winning in 1914 and Italy didn’t join. They even pulled out and made excuses and went neutral for 10 months. By the time they did join the Allies, the war was not going well for either side and they still choose the Allies.
The offensive of 1914 and victory at Tannenberg didn’t do anything for Italy, so for you to be correct the CP must be much farther to winning than at any point in the war and 1914 was probably the closest they came. Result is Italy still went neutral.
So for you to be right, the Historical result would both be unplayable from a game standpoint. It might look like “If Germany takes out France on turn 1, Italy has a chance to join the CP…otherwise they join the Entente on turn 2”
But we both know this is impossible given the rules/setup,etc.
If i am correct it would be more plausible, Historical, practical, and the game could actually be played because it does not require France to fall in order to work.
Please don’t bring up again this “goal” stuff. That being Germany’s goal did NOT mean it was the way by which they would win the war.
Tell that to the Kaiser and Ludendorff and Helmuth von Moltke. They treated it as a goal. And before that, Germany always had plans for war and what their goals would be.