variance that would depend completely on what UK does UK1. If UK doesn’t protect London or it builds an Egypt IC or both then you can think about turn 2 sea lion.
Now the Turn 1 declaration on Russia might have some merit if it compels Russia to retreat to Bryansk/Ukraine and not hold Belorussia, which would push back a potential Red Army consolidation in East Poland till R3. The downside is that Russia can also go take out Iraq (and potentially get more NO money in Africa) and they are getting the +5 while Germany isn’t getting its +5.
As far as the file you posted, I would only consider either 9 inf or 6 inf 1 fig as purchases for UK (more likely 9 inf). Certainly no Taranto attack.
Your opening is interesting as it poses a tough challenge to Russia…Russia could risk stacking Belorussia with a 27% chance of actualling winning the battle, but if Germany had 2 more planes on West Germany, then stacking Belo would be too risky.
The major problem with this opening from my perspective is UK should be in a decent position if they opt for a 92 consolidation. And since your 91 attack is 50/50, that cruiser could just as easily survive and strengthen the potential consolidation.